Hoosier Posted August 12, 2016 Share Posted August 12, 2016 2 hours ago, snowlover2 said: Latest WPC 7 day QPF. Break out the boats. Haven't been watching the models for a while but you pretty much know what kind of setup there is by looking at that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 22 hours ago, knitwx said: I can't believe I'm the one posting this; There is a tornado warning Southwest of Holland Mi. GRR confirmed an EF0 with that storm northwest of Fennville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 Looking back on yesterday, shear was pretty unimpressive for tornadoes but sometimes it doesn't take much to get something reaching the ground in such a moist environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 Looks like the wpc map is going to nail the heaviest axis, rainfall getting going in southern Illinois/Indiana. I picked up a much needed 1.2" of rainfall last night, brought the grass out of semi dormancy. Wow Springfield killed it last night, 5.68"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 Actually heard a spotter recorded 8" last night in tazewell county?! Any confirmation? That's nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 Nothing from CoCoRaHS about an 8" amount. The highest reported is 5.87" WNW of Springfield, followed by 5.24" SW of Plainfield. The largest amount reported in Tazewell Co. was in the southern part, near Delavan at 4.49". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 Storming pretty good in my area, might catch a good half inch or more with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 Finally got a halfway-decent t'storm (although still not severe). It's the 2nd for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 7 minutes ago, Powerball said: Finally got a halfway-decent t'storm (although still not severe). It's the 2nd for the season. And below is a pic of the halfway-decent shelf cloud (it actually looked better a couple minutes after taking this pic). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 11 hours ago, Chambana said: Looks like the wpc map is going to nail the heaviest axis, rainfall getting going in southern Illinois/Indiana. I picked up a much needed 1.2" of rainfall last night, brought the grass out of semi dormancy. Wow Springfield killed it last night, 5.68"! Yeah, lots of flooding issues at the state fair and nearby campgrounds. Saw a photo with many trucks and campers flooded in 4+ feet of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 57 minutes ago, Central Illinois said: Geez, those look like snowfall maps lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 1 hour ago, Central Illinois said: Depending where training sets up. Someone's gonna get epic amounts of rain out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 wow.. 12z NAM very wet for IL/IND 8 inche bullseye at 48 hr's and a moderate rain band is already over the area not handled well by models It has been dry over western IND (ie LAF area) and eastern IL but not just SE of there IND metro area may be in trouble if the band sets up just SE of the 12z NAM already in steady moderate rain all morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW HSB 20 SW CGI 10 WSW ARG 25 W BVX FLP 15 SSW TBN 10 W ALN 20 ENE 1H2 AJG 10 NNW HSB. LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ANOMALOUS MOISTURE -- PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2 TO 3 SIGMAS ABOVE THE MEAN (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE) FOR MID AUGUST -- COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY AND COUPLED DYNAMICAL FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK TO THE N-NE WILL POSE A CONTINUED RISK OF EXCESSIVE SHORT-TERM RAINFALL RATES TODAY AND TONIGHT NEAR A FRONTAL ZONE. A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT (INTO TUE) IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE SURFACE FRONT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES BETWEEN 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORM, FIRST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY LATE (00-12Z MON). IN TERMS OF THE MODEL QPF TRENDS, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A NORTHWARD SHIFT WITH THE MAIN RAINFALL AXIS. FOR THIS OUTLOOK, UTILIZED THE 12Z WPC CONTINUITY, INDICATIONS FROM 06Z GFS MASS FIELDS, AS WELL AS IDEAS FROM THE 03Z AND 09Z SREF MEAN TO NUDGE THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE THREAT AREAS NORTHWARD. THE MARGINAL RISK AREA EXPANDED QUITE A BIT NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN IL AND TO THE IN/OH BORDER WITH MI TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODEL SPREAD. AS HOURLY RAIN RATES COULD REACH 2.5", THE SIGNAL IN THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 4-7" RANGE THROUGH MONDAY 12Z LOOKS REASONABLE. PER COORDINATION WITH THE LITTLE ROCK AR, ST. LOUIS MO, PADUCAH KY, AND LINCOLN IL FORECAST OFFICES, ADDED A HIGH RISK FOR AREAS OF SOUTHERN IL, SOUTHEAST AR, AND NORTH-CENTRAL AR WHERE RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY HAS GENERALLY SATURATED SOILS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 got a bit of a wagons west feel to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 35 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: got a bit of a wagons west feel to it 12z GFS indeed west with last slug..nice hit NE IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 Tricky forecast for Chicago proper and nearby. NAM/GFS couldn't be much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: got a bit of a wagons west feel to it Been inching further NW slowly for about a day and a half, DTX made mention of this in their morning discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 Damn, gonna feel muggy out there. I can handle the muggy air in the upper 70's and low 80's though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 All the 12Z GFS and NAM tell me is that is that regardless of training, it's gonna be pretty interesting. And also to be glad I live on a Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 Glad this is missing well southeast. We definitely don't need anymore rain. Almost 10 inches since July 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 40 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: All the 12Z GFS and NAM tell me is that is that regardless of training, it's gonna be pretty interesting. And also to be glad I live on a Hill. We have a modern drain system here... It could rain 5 feet and we would be fine. It's older developments that suffer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 ILX expanded the Flash Flood Watch another row of counties to include I-72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 Chicago is in on the action latest NAM widespread 2-3" in NE IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 00z NAM and GFS sort of look like they swapped from what they had earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM and GFS sort of look like they swapped from what they had earlier. GFS has more widespread heavier rain and is further east, while the NAM is less widespread and west. Will make for a fun forecasting situation for the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 I could deal with everything looking green again for the first time in 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 New WPC rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 New WPC outlook. Also got a chuckle at the Hillsdale watch hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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