Upcoming Northeast gulf or SE States low pressure system

[UpstateSCBud]

1 hour ago, jshetley said:

80% of the area is, and will stay, dry through most of Monday

I would say this is already wrong and we still have a long way to go...

[jshetley]

1 hour ago, drfranklin said:

I haven't seen this much widespread rain in Upstate SC/Western NC in a LONG time - this has been a very dry and hot summer - shet, Jonesville, SC is about to get hammered - there is a huge cell just to your south moving north

We barely got into that big cell but did make it in and got 1.52 out of it. 

[janetjanet998]

  PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL   1036 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2016       .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON       .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.     ..REMARKS..  

 

  0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 9 WNW HATCH BEND 29.88N 83.06W   08/08/2016 M12.40 INCH LAFAYETTE FL MESONET     STORM TOTAL SINCE SUNDAY OF 12.40 INCHES AT THE SRWMD   RAIN GAUGE ALONG TOM GUNTER ROAD THROUGH 9 AM EDT  

 

  0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ESE MIDWAY 30.01N 83.06W   08/08/2016 M10.02 INCH LAFAYETTE FL MESONET     STORM TOTAL SINCE SUNDAY OF 10.02 INCHES AT THE SRWMD   MIDWAY TOWER RAIN GAUGE IN LAFAYETTE COUNTY THROUGH 9 AM   EDT.  

 

  0900 AM HEAVY RAIN COOKS HAMMOCK 29.93N 83.28W   08/08/2016 M7.57 INCH LAFAYETTE FL MESONET     STORM TOTAL SINCE SUNDAY OF 7.57 INCHES THROUGH 9 AM EDT   AT THE SRWMD RAIN GAUGE AT COOKS HAMMOCK

[NavarreDon]

MOB is backing of a bit on event qpf . One thing I can tell you is the atmosphere has the consistency of soup here now. Check out this temp & dp!




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[LithiaWx]

1 hour ago, NavarreDon said:

MOB is backing of a bit on event qpf . One thing I can tell you is the atmosphere has the consistency of soup here now. Check out this temp & dp!




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

FFC dialed it back as well.  Cut expected totals in half.

[jshetley]

This event will help the drought some, but it'll certainly not end it like some said it would. The month of august is looking to drier and warmer than first thought too. Right in line with a LaNina. 

[dan11295]

Horseshoe Beach, FL area is just geting hammered right now with training rainfall of up to 3"/hr. PWS there has 10.43 since midnight and climbing rapidly. Consistent with NWS CWOP report from an hour ago. TLH radar is significantly underestimating precip.

1154 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HORSESHOE BEACH         29.44N 83.29W
08/09/2016  M8.90 INCH       DIXIE              FL   MESONET

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 8.9 INCHES AT CWOP SITE CW8654
            IN HORSESHOE BEACH. OF THAT AMOUNT...2.18 HAS FALLEN IN
            THE LAST HOUR AND 6.05 INCHES IN THE LAST 6 HOURS
 

 

[janetjanet998]

major problems in Ms and LA from this system..

 

they got hit with pockets if heavy rain each afternoon the past 5 days and now widespread 6-10 inch amounts

 

the heavy rain bands that set up just off the Nature coast of FL a few days ago dumping 20 inches over the water are now dumping on land

 

 

ESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0550   NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD   808 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016  

  AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LA     CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY     VALID 121130Z - 121730Z  

 

  SUMMARY...EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL ONGOING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MS   AND SOUTHEAST LA WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND/OR FLASH   FLOODING THROUGH THIS MORNING.     DISCUSSION...DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND CONCENTRATE   ITSELF THIS MORNING AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A LOW TO MID   LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MS. CLOUD   TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN APPROACHING -80C NEAR THE MS/LA BORDER   AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF BATON ROUGE...AND IN THIS AREA....VERY   INTENSE RAINFALL IS ONGOING WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 3 TO 3.5   INCHES/HR. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...SOME AREAS HAVE LOCALLY SEEN   OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN BASED ON DUAL-POL RADAR ESTIMATES.  

 

  VERY INTENSE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF   ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST MS CLOSE INTO THE LOW CENTER ITSELF...AND   ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LA AS CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW   AND GREATER INSTABILITY AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW   CIRCULATION PERSISTS.  

 

  THE GLOBAL MODELS FROM 00Z INCLUDING THE UKMET/GFS AND ECMWF ONCE   AGAIN SUGGEST SOME STRENGTHENING OF THIS LOW CENTER...ESPECIALLY   IN THE 850/700 MB LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.   CONSEQUENTLY...STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO   ENSUE WHICH WILL ALLOW ONGOING CONVECTION TO REMAIN SUSTAINABLE   AND POSSIBLE INTENSIFY A BIT FURTHER WITH STRONGER CONVECTIVE   BANDS IN PARTICULAR SETTING UP AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE   CIRCULATION CENTER.     HIRES GUIDANCE LED BY THE 00Z ARW/NMMB SOLUTIONS SUGGEST   ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z APPROACHING 10   INCHES OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT   THIS TIME. THESE MODELS THOUGH ARE LIKELY UNDERDONE OVER PARTS OF   SOUTHWEST MS AND SOUTHEAST LA WHERE CONVECTIVE BANDS ONGOING ARE   ALREADY PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.     LIFE-THREATENING RUNOFF AND/OR FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH   SUCH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND STORM TOTALS GOING THROUGH THE   MORNING HOURS.     ORRISON  

 

[janetjanet998]

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA   909 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016      

 

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION     QUICK UPDATE ON THE DATA FROM THE MORNING SOUNDING. OBVIOUSLY WE   ARE IN RECORD TERRITORY. THE PW IS AT 2.8 INCHES... WHICH IS NEAR   THE ALL TIME MAX AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST 48 HOURS WITH THIS   TROPICAL AIRMASS.

 

IT IS A SATURATED HEAVY RAIN PROFILE WITH A   LONG SKINNY CAPE AREA. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS NEARLY 1600 FEET. SOME   COCORAHS REPORTS FROM JUST NORTH OF BATON ROUGE HAVE 10 INCHES   FROM YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. LEGACY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS   SINCE 10PM LAST NIGHT ARE CLOSE TO OBSERVATIONS AND ARE WHAT WE   ARE USING OPERATIONALLY... DUAL POL IS A SIGNIFICANT OVERESTIMATE. NEAR   11 INCHES OVER CENTRAL ST HELENA PARISH, NEAR 9 INCHES OVER PARTS   OF NORTHERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH AND NORTHERN LIVINGSTON   PARISH.  

[dan11295]

3 Separate FF Emergencies currently in effect for LA/MS.  New Iberia has seen over 9" in the past 4 hours.

[calm_days]

stormwise (member) on storm2k mentions this phenomenon as being relevant to this system's behavior.

http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/brown-ocean-can-fuel-inland-tropical-cyclones/#.V63jh6LijaQ

It seems that there is measurably less of a difference and in fact significant similarities between atmospheric conditions over/near surface of some of the landmass of the CONUS and conditions over tropical ocean waters.  stormwise is essentially wondering if this system will be classified as having had this as part of its development and maintained strength or if due to the storm not being named other than an unnumbered invest that it may be overlooked. 

[dan11295]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
LAC045-055-099-122000-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.W.0064.160812T1512Z-160812T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1012 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PORTIONS OF ST. MARTIN IBERIA AND
LAFAYETTE PARISHES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
  NORTHWESTERN IBERIA PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
  SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 1006 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
  HEAVY RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 8 TO 11 INCHES OF RAIN
  HAVE FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND MORE
  SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY WITH
  HEAVIER RAINS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA THAT HAS RECEIVED 8 TO 11
  INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY THIS MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL FIVE INCHES OR
  MORE IS POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

  THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PORTIONS OF ST.MARTIN...IBERIA
AND LAFAYETTE PARISHES. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MAJOR FLOODING INCLUDE...
  LAFAYETTE...NEW IBERIA...BROUSSARD...YOUNGSVILLE...CADE...COTEAU...
  ACADIANA REGIONAL AIRPORT AND MILTON.

[dan11295]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
LAC033-037-077-125-MSC157-121800-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FF.W.0053.160812T1505Z-160812T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1005 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR U.S. HIGHWAY CORRIDOR FROM BAKER
THROUGH ST FRANCISVILE LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN WILKINSON COUNTY
MISSISSIPPI...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
  EASTERN POINTE COUPEE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
  NORTHWESTERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
  SOUTHWESTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
  SOUTHWESTERN WILKINSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1001 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
  HEAVY RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. TWO TO THREE INCHES OF
  RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN UNDER ONE HOUR. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY
  OCCURRING.

  THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR BAKER...ST
FRANCISVILLE...WAKEFIELD AND SOUTHERN WILKINSON COUNTY SOUTHWEST OF
WOODVILLE. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND NOW!

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  ZACHARY...BAKER...ST. FRANCISVILLE...WAKEFIELD AND BROWNFIELDS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.

[janetjanet998]

NTRAL GULF COAST   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~   ...HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF   THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

 

    ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, WITH THE   EXCEPTIONALLY ANOMALOUS 2.5-2.75+ INCH PW VALUES ALONG THE CENTRAL   GULF COAST, INCLUDING AN OBSERVED 2.79" PER THE KLIX 12Z RAOB.   THESE VALUES ARE BETWEEN 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORM   (NEAR RECORD VALUES). THE BEST DESCRIPTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS THAT   OF A SHEARED INLAND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A MONSOON DEPRESSION,   AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SYSTEM HAS RETROGRADED INTO TX,   ADVECTING NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE   SYSTEM.

 

THE BEST ANALOG IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE (2010) DURING   ITS SECOND TRIP INTO THE GULF COAST, THOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS PROVEN   TO BE A BROADER WITH ITS RAINFALL FOOTPRINT. GIVEN THE DEEP HIGH   THETA-E/MOIST PROFILE FOR OPTIMAL WARM RAIN PROCESSES (WET BULB   ZERO HEIGHTS BEYOND 16,000 FEET), THE THREAT FOR HEAVY TROPICAL   BANDING RAINS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE GIVEN THE SLOW   WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM CORE CYCLONE.     WPC MAINTAINED A FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF AREAL-AVERAGE QPF BETWEEN   4-5" ACROSS CENTRAL LA AND SOUTHWEST MS. MOST OF THE   HIGHER-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES POCKETS OF MUCH HIGHER   AMOUNTS, 7-20" ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z SAT.

 

  GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OVER INCREASINGLY SATURATED SOILS   (LOW FFG VALUES) AND CURRENT RADAR AND INSTABILITY TRENDS, THE   MARGINAL, SLIGHT, MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS IN THE DAY 1   EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO) WERE EXPANDED NORTH AND WESTWARD   ACROSS LA, TX, AND AR -- THIS WAS COORDINATED WITH THE LAKE   CHARLES, HOUSTON/GALVESTON, SHREVEPORT, AND LITTLE ROCK FORECAST   OFFICES. SIGNIFICANT TO CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING SHOULD   CONTINUE/IS STILL ANTICIPATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UNUSUAL   HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  

[janetjanet998]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0552   NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD   121 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016     AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LA...SOUTHWEST MS    

 

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY     VALID 121720Z - 122330Z     SUMMARY...DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING/RUNOFF   FROM EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  

 

  DISCUSSION...VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES AROUND THE   SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST MS   WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED EVER   SO SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS SEEN IN 1-MINUTE   GOES-14 IR ANIMATIONS...BUT CLOUD TOPS ARE STILL ABOUT -75C FROM   FAR SOUTHWEST MS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL LA WHERE PROLIFIC RAINFALL HAS   BEEN OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS.  

 

  THE CONVECTION REMAINS HIGHLY PERSISTENT WHILE FOCUSING WITHIN A   VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AND CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME. PWATS ARE   VERY HIGH AND NEAR ALL-TIME RECORD LEVELS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL   AND SOUTHERN LA AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z LIX RAOB WHICH HAD A 2.78   INCH PW OF RECORD. LOW PRESSURE AT LEAST IN THE 850/500 MB LAYER   HAS BEEN SHOWING EVIDENCE OF STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING WHICH IS   HELPING TO FURTHER CONCENTRATE AND ORGANIZE THE CONVECTION WHILE   ALSO ENHANCING THE CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE LOW CENTER.  

 

  THE 16Z HRRR/HRRRP GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN   ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS   THROUGH LATE-AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LA.   IN SOME CASES...THIS WILL BE ON TOP OF ALREADY EXTREMELY HEAVY   RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT HAVE OCCURRED. DANGEROUS AND   LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING/RUNOFF WILL BE LIKELY AS A RESULT.  

[janetjanet998]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA   419 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016       .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON       .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.     ..REMARKS..     0300 PM HEAVY RAIN LIVINGSTON 30.50N 90.75W   08/12/2016 M17.09 INCH LIVINGSTON LA CO-OP OBSERVER

 

    COOP OBSERVED 17.09 INCHES OF RAIN FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT TO   3PM. MOST THIS MORNING DURING LONG DURATION 3 INCH PER   HOUR RATE.

[buckeyefan1]

Positive thoughts sent out to those in LA      I can not imagine rebuilding from a flood in Jan,only to have it happen again. 

[metalicwx366]

17 hours ago, calm_days said:

stormwise (member) on storm2k mentions this phenomenon as being relevant to this system's behavior.

http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/brown-ocean-can-fuel-inland-tropical-cyclones/#.V63jh6LijaQ

It seems that there is measurably less of a difference and in fact significant similarities between atmospheric conditions over/near surface of some of the landmass of the CONUS and conditions over tropical ocean waters.  stormwise is essentially wondering if this system will be classified as having had this as part of its development and maintained strength or if due to the storm not being named other than an unnumbered invest that it may be overlooked. 

Yeah I mentioned the possibility of this several pages back. That's what the Euro was showing in earlier runs.

Insane rainfall estimated on radar and it's still coming down hard over those areas. GFS shows about 10+ more inches of rain for the same areas getting crushed now over the next 24 hours.

[dan11295]

Totals as of 4 am CDT

BTR 14.49 (Since 2 pm Thursday). Note areas to NE of BTR have seen significantly more than this. Multiple PWS here are 20"+. Looked at 6 different stations on WU and lowest I found had 18.5" since 12 am Friday.

LFT 11.65 (Since 4 am Friday)

ARA 14.45 (Since 5 am Friday)

Multiple rivers are currently above record flood stage. Some have peaked/are expected to peak 3-4' above previous record flood

[dan11295]

Rain looks to be (slowly) finally leaving the Baton Rouge metro. But LFT-ARA is getting hammered again,

Last hour:

METAR KLFT 131353Z 20013G22KT 3SM +RA BR SCT007 BKN023 OVC050 22/22 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 22033/1321 LTG DSNT W AND NW SLP111 P0178 T02220217 METAR KARA 131353Z 24010KT 1SM +RA BR FEW005 OVC014 23/22 A2989 RMK AO2 PK WND 17027/1303 WSHFT 1320 LTG DSNT W SLP120 P0136 T02330222

[janetjanet998]

amazing LAF now at 16 inches at 9am 

16.67 at BAT (plus another 2 inches a few days ago)

 

NWS says 10-26 inches over a wide area in the last statement...huge problems...breaking records all over

 

 another slug of precip developing south of NOLA may moving into eastern LA later

 

 

[SN_Lover]

went on waze and so many roads closed right now. Looks like rain going to continue for several hours. 

[Lookout]

2 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

amazing LAF now at 16 inches at 9am 

16.67 at BAT (plus another 2 inches a few days ago)

 

NWS says 10-26 inches over a wide area in the last statement...huge problems...breaking records all over

 

 another slug of precip developing south of NOLA may moving into eastern LA later

 

 

Haven't been able to post much lately but been following this closely. THe pws alone with this system has been insane...with pws as high as 2.8 inches and near or breaking all time record highs in places. The lack of movement  reminds me a lot of the incredibly persistent band that dumped up to 2 feet of rain over sc back in 2015.  Top winner so far..brownsfield, la with 27 inches and it's still raining there. And to think some areas in La had just been hit by a "500 year flood" back in the spring.  Going to take a long time for them to recover from this one. Just thank god this didn't setup a little further east over New Orleans.

 

STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 5 FOR SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND GULF COAST HEAVY
RAINFALL
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD    
1000 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL INTO LOUISIANA... 

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND WATCHES AS WELL AS FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 900 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES...WAS LOCATED IN
CENTRAL LOUISIANA JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA.  RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO
DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EDGES CLOSER INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THIS HAS LED TO PROLIFIC AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA SINCE YESTERDAY WHERE TOTALS OF OVER 20 INCHES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED.  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.  THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST AS THE LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO
DRIFT WESTWARD.

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES FROM 600 AM CDT THU AUG
09 THROUGH 900 AM CDT SAT AUG 13...

...LOUISIANA...
BROWNFIELDS 4.0 E                    27.47                  
MONTICELLO 3.0 ENE                   26.26                    
JACKSON 10.1 SSW                     21.56                    
LIVINGSTON                           21.29                    
BATON ROUGE 1.4 WSW                  17.29
DENHAM SPRINGS 4.1 NE                16.89
TICKFAW 2.0 SSW                      15.21       
PRAIRIEVILLE 2.0 S                   14.65
NEW IBERIA/ACADIANA                  13.72
LAFAYETTE RGNL ARPT                  13.13            
CENTRAL 2.2 SE		             12.24
MADISONVILLE 3.2 NNW                 10.23                    
FRANKLINTON                          10.21                    
KENTWOOD                              9.38                    
DONALDSONVILLE                        8.76                    
CLINTON 5 SE                          6.25                    
NEW ORLEANS/MOISANT                   2.62                    

...MISSISSIPPI...
GLOSTER 1.9 SSW                      22.84                    
LIBERTY 1.0 WNW                      10.97
WILKINSON                            10.25
CENTERVILLE 1 S                      10.20       
WAVELAND 1.0 NW                       9.90 
DIAMONDHEAD 0.4 E                     9.65
PASS CHRISTIAN 3.5 NE                 9.62
LONG BEACH 0.8 SSE                    9.31  
OCEAN SPRINGS 3.6 ESE                 9.00                    
GULFPORT-BILOXI                       8.83                    
KEESLER AFB/BILOXI                    6.08                    
MCCOMB/LEWIS FIELD                    5.77                    
JACKSON WFO                           5.63                    
PASCAGOULA                            4.30                    

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT HAS
ENDED...

...ALABAMA...
GLOSTER                               9.94                    
FAIRHOPE 1.5 WSW                      8.97                    
FOLEY 2.0 SSW                         8.60                    
MOBILE 5.1 S                          8.01                    
FOLEY 0.5 ESE                         7.58                    
SUMMERDALE 4.3 WSW                    7.46                    
EVERGREEN                             5.55                    
CAIRNS AAF/OZARK                      4.22                    
MOBILE DOWNTOWN AIRPORT               3.21                    

...FLORIDA...
PANAMA CITY BEACH 5.9 WNW            14.43                    
HATCH BEND                           14.00                    
BRONSON 3.0 SE                       12.80                    
VERO BEACH 2.4 W                     12.16                    
CROSS CITY ARPT                      11.39                    
TYNDALL AFB                          11.03                    
MIRAMAR BEACH 9.5 ESE                10.17                    
SPRING HILL 2.4 NW                   10.06                    
MIDWAY                               10.00                    
WEEKI WACHEE 7.1 NNE                  9.96                    
PENSACOLA NAS                         9.95                    
HORSESHOW BEACH                       8.90                    
VERO BEACH MUNI ARPT                  8.52                    
GULFPORT 0.9 NNW                      8.38                    
TALLAHASSEE 9.6 N                     6.89                    


THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWEST INTO
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS ON SUNDAY BEFORE MERGING WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE
SYSTEM...RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LOW TRACK.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF LOUISIANA AND
EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A
SERIOUS CONCERN. THROUGH MONDAY...THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING SHIFTS NORTHWARD TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
THE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER AT 400 PM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT.

KONG




Last Updated: 1121 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

 

[LithiaWx]

.20" for the event 

[jrips27]

On 8/7/2016 at 3:26 PM, LithiaWx said:

It looks pretty good for west Georgia!  We need it something fierce. 

 

 

 

14 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

.20" for the event 

 

woof. Did a tad better up here at .40" 

 

A far cry from the 5-6" forecasted. Big bust. 

With that being said, thoughts and prayers go out to those in Louisiana and Mississippi. Nobody needs that much rain. 

[dan11295]

Thankfully the rain has pretty much stopped over the hardest hit areas. Needless to so say, still a very bad situation down there. They had to rescue hundreds of people stranded on Interstates and am reading there are still people trapped on the highways. People just had to turn around who were trying to drive from TX to FL, etc. because there is just no way to get through. Now there is an AT&T cell outage in BR.

[SN_Lover]