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Upcoming Northeast gulf or SE States low pressure system

janetjanet998

By janetjanet998,
in Southeastern States

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NWNC2015

NWNC2015

Posted
Posted

Large flash flood watch NC, SC, GA. 

* Rainfall is expected to result in flash flooding along small
  creaks and streams. Debris flows may result along slopes if
  storms are able to anchor over the higher elevations.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. MOISTURE ALONG A STALLED FRONT
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
..MONDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
..TUESDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
..WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
..THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
..FRIDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
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NWNC2015

NWNC2015

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, jshetley said:

It's beginning to look like only some pockets in SC and NC get much rain and all of it from tomorrow into Tues. not looking for a single drop here indefinitely.

Well can't argue with you now UKMET agrees. Does appear to be better north of you with 1-3" but likely a little more with lift up the mountains could see a few extremes in those favorable spots.

PA_000-072_0000.gif

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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

Well can't argue with you now UKMET agrees. Does appear to be better north of you with 1-3" but likely a little more with lift up the mountains could see a few extremes in those favorable spots.

PA_000-072_0000.gif

Of course the eastern slopes will get nailed over the next 3 days, but they are not in the drought. While many places got 3-4 inches of rain last week, with some much higher, we managed only a trace here. AL should get drought relief, but not anywhere east of there. All NWS offices are saying high pressure builds from the east by late week keeping things fairly dry east of I-75 with only scattered storms. Sadly all the calls for a wet August are going to be wrong east of the upslope regions.

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UpstateSCBud

UpstateSCBud

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jshetley said:

It's beginning to look like only some pockets in SC and NC get much rain and all of it from tomorrow into Tues. The big mass of rain next weekend will be from western GA back across AL and north from there. Basically no drought relief in the Carolinas or GA through at least the next 2 weeks. i'm not looking for a single drop here indefinitely.

You'll get shetted on I'm sure. Really looking good for the Upstate the next few days. Got all my yard work done so now I can sit inside and watch it pour. 

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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, UpstateSCBud said:

You'll get shetted on I'm sure. Really looking good for the Upstate the next few days. Got all my yard work done so now I can sit inside and watch it pour. 

You are in a much better spot than I am for this event. The farther west and closer to the mountains the better the chances for rain. 

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

Starting to look like a serious issue here in the W FL Panhandle. We've already had a week with slow moving heavy thunderstorms. And MOB is saying starting Monday it's basically a week of tropical rain. The sandy soil composition drains fast down here........but not that fast!

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1470572408

 

image2.gif

  

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...A broad upper low
centered near the extreme northeast Gulf or north central Florida is
expected to move little through the period. An associated surface
low will be centered initially near southeast Alabama then shifts
slowly westward, along a surface trof axis, to be near the border of
extreme southwest Alabama and Mississippi. Abundant deep layer
moisture remains over the forecast area through the period, with
precipitable water values around 2.3 inches increasing to around 2.5
inches, values which are well above seasonable normals. As the
surface low drifts slowly westward along the surface trof axis, this
will place the best forcing, and qpf amounts, over the southeastern
portion of the forecast area each day. Have gone with likely pops for
nearly the entire area except for categorical pops mostly over the
coastal portions of the western Florida panhandle.  Rainfall amounts
through the period will range from 2.25 inches near the coast of the
western Florida panhandle and parts of coastal Alabama to 0.5-1.25
inches roughly west of I-65. These amounts, especially the higher
amounts mostly over the northwest Florida panhandle and coastal
Alabama, will begin to set the stage for a heavy rainfall and
potential flooding event in the long term period by significantly
moistening soil conditions. In addition to locally heavy rainfall,
strong wind gusts and prolific lightning will accompany the stronger
storms through the period. Highs will be mostly in the lower 90s on
Monday, then moderate to around 90 for much of the area on Tuesday
except for the westernmost portion where lower 90s will occur.
Afternoon heat indices of 100-105 are expected. Lows will range from
the mid 70s inland to the upper 70s near the coast. /29

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...The broad upper low is
expected to open into an upper trof which continues slowly westward
along the northern Gulf coast through the period. The associated
surface low in turn, is expected to be located near extreme southwest
Alabama Wednesday morning then weaken leaving a surface trof axis
over the forecast area through Thursday, possibly Friday, before
either dissipating or shifting well west of the area. Despite the
transition from surface low to surface trof, a persistent and
extremely moist southerly flow interacts with the surface trof,
which results in an extended period of high pops and potentially high
qpf amounts over the forecast area. Such is the strength and
persistence of this pattern, that additional rainfall amounts - on
top of the short term period rainfall - are forecast to range from
8-13 inches east of I-65 to 3-8 inches west of I-65. Including the
entire 7 day forecast period, rainfall totals are forecast to range
from 10-15 inches east of I-65 with 4-10 inches west of I-65. It
essentially goes without saying that a flash flood watch will likely
be required for at least most of the area. Highs will be moderated by
rain and cloud cover through the period, and be mostly in the mid 80s
except for initially warmer highs around 90 over the westernmost
portion of the area on Wednesday. Lows will continue to range from
the mid 70s inland to the upper 70s near the coast.
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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

That's going to be too much water for the up-slope regions. Maybe if we get lucky we can get some organized thunderstorms in Florida to rob some of the inflow. 

gem_apcpn_us_40.png

We can use every drop of that in SC though. Maybe storms in SC could rob NC of moisture since this rain isn't needed in western NC.

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NWNC2015

NWNC2015

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, jshetley said:

We can use every drop of that in SC though. Maybe storms in SC could rob NC of moisture since this rain isn't needed in western NC.

It would help if the storms would actually start in SC first, instead of relying on the outflow boundaries all summer from the storms siting over western NC. HRRR today shows that progression again unfortunately. 

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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted

The same thing despite what models say. The wet areas get wetter and the drought areas just stay dry. The Euro now takes the big rainmaker due west  along the gulf coast. Just watch as the drought areas only get spotty rain this week while areas that don't need rain get plenty of it. This drought isn't going anywhere fast and will make it into northwest NC with time.

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NWNC2015

NWNC2015

Posted
Posted

Something else the local NWS are monitoring if you read the AFD's. The wildcard is looking interesting today. We could be on the sinking air side if it got its act together, which would help erase the storms/rain going into this week. But also don't want it get too strong either it could come close to the OBX. Models are not gung-ho for development in this area but neither were they for Katrina in '05.

GOES13452016220LtAuqe_zpsjzfeuhdf.jpg

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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, NWNC2015 said:

Something else the local NWS are monitoring if you read the AFD's. The wildcard is looking interesting today. We could be on the sinking air side if it got its act together, which would help erase the storms/rain going into this week. But also don't want it get too strong either it could come close to the OBX. Models are not gung-ho for development in this area but neither were they for Katrina in '05.

GOES13452016220LtAuqe_zpsjzfeuhdf.jpg

We need this to strengthen and come right into SC and GA. We need rain that badly here. 

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calm_days

calm_days

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, NWNC2015 said:

Well here comes one circulation into Georgia...NAM takes it into central SC and dissipates it over the upstate. This brings rounds of thunderstorms into the Piedmont of NC with daytime heating. 

vis_lalo-animated.gif

Yes; i found this on the storm2k forum a minute ago describing some model support for potentially more of these..!

 

``

Steve

Re: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

#297 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 07, 2016 11:00 am

You don't hear this every day, but nice job with the NAM 18z yesterday with the decoupling and ejection of the lower-mid level circulation (showed it at 850 but not 500) it kept intact over the southeast and into South Carolina in a day or two. Now you never want to double down on the NAM, but sometimes in the subtropics it can beat the globals. So what happens on today's 12z run is as follows:

1) ejected low center which is just around that cut where GA digs into the panhandle (Baker County/Macklenny area) moves slowly inland through southeast Georgia (near the coast but inland) toward the GA/South Carolina border and starts to retrograde as the vorticity reduces.

2) More vorticity at 850 forms to the South of the first ejected low in Apalachee Bay east of Panacea/Pelican Pointe. This moves almost due north and runs a line up through Western Georgia and then curves NW.

3) more vorticity forms over Santa Rosa/Okaloosa Counties and retrogrades along the coast toward the Al/MS coasts before jumping back toward SE Al.

So what my read is on this is that NAM essentially tracks 3 low level centers over the next 4 days. It's essentially a pattern repeat from what happened last night two more times but each time another 100-125 miles farther west.
 
``
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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

It is pouring in downtown Greenville right now. 

It's just isolated tiny storms though. Nothing like what has been forecast. I-85 and above may get good rain this week, but south of that forget it. Certainly not putting a dent into the drought. 

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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted

Stuff is still fairly isolated though so 80% of the area is, and will stay, dry through most of Monday if the GFS is right. This has virtually no chance to be the drought ending event GSP was talking about earlier. And as far as my area goes I can GUARANTEE it doesn't rain much. When you have multiple cells within 5 miles and still nothing you just know it isn't happening. 

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SN_Lover

SN_Lover

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, drfranklin said:

I haven't seen this much widespread rain in Upstate SC/Western NC in a LONG time - this has been a very dry and hot summer - shet, Jonesville, SC is about to get hammered - there is a huge cell just to your south moving north

Radar looks like a Christmas tree. It's beautiful! Rarely get these synoptic events in the middle of summer. 

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