janetjanet998 Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 To sum up heavy rains form here on out...will this future system stay over water and become tropical? regardless heavy rains for the SE states MOB discussion AN INTERESTING PATTERN STILL LOOKS SET TO EVOLVE OVER THE AREA AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF COMBINES ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE EASTERLIES TO FORM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF OR EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE GULF. THE EVOLVING SURFACE/UPPER LOW PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AFTER WHICH THIS BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE. HAVE OPTED FOR NOW TO CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY AND GOOD CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS, AND WHILE CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF, THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE IMPACTED BY A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 It's been about off the charts for many runs. May provide some lift in the green area for some rain. And this does NOT include the Tropical Storm after it as its and the end of the run. Sick pattern change hopefully doesn't materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 I'm hoping we get this pattern. You may not believe it, but much of the southeast is in a drought and could use all of this rain and maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 4 hours ago, jshetley said: I'm hoping we get this pattern. You may not believe it, but much of the southeast is in a drought and could use all of this rain and maybe more. I'm surprised you and more so people in Georgia are not discussing what the EURO/UKMET are showing. It brings it inland a depression/storm well into Alabama then into TN/KY. Those are two models you want to see agree. It's kinda odd the Farmers Almanac called for this may impact my move in to Boone if we see it trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 Looks like our pattern change is going to happen. Looking wet with an established bermuda high setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: I'm surprised you and more so people in Georgia are not discussing what the EURO/UKMET are showing. It brings it inland a depression/storm well into Alabama then into TN/KY. Those are two models you want to see agree. It's kinda odd the Farmers Almanac called for this may impact my move in to Boone if we see it trend. That would be too far west to do my area much good. We need that to track about 150 miles farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Wow said: Looks like our pattern change is going to happen. Looking wet with an established bermuda high setting up. The rain will find a way to miss my area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 5, 2016 Share Posted August 5, 2016 10 hours ago, jshetley said: I'm hoping we get this pattern. You may not believe it, but much of the southeast is in a drought and could use all of this rain and maybe more. The drought here is severe. I have gone fishing the last couple of weeks to see ponds and lakes 5-7 feet below normal. We need the rain badly in west Georgia. I'm excited at some possibilities! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 5, 2016 Share Posted August 5, 2016 Keeping a close eye on this set up down here in the western panhandle.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 5, 2016 Share Posted August 5, 2016 1 hour ago, LithiaWx said: The drought here is severe. I have gone fishing the last couple of weeks to see ponds and lakes 5-7 feet below normal. We need the rain badly in west Georgia. I'm excited at some possibilities! I don't see it happening. By early next week we'll be looking at 95-100 degree weather settling back in with little to no rain in sight. Our best chance this month has passed without me seeing 1 single drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 5, 2016 Share Posted August 5, 2016 National Hurricane Center now starting to mention it. I believe the UKMET brings a major hurricane into FL/AL (worst case scenario). The EURO shifted more east for those wanting rain but forms it overland FL so weaker...south GA and west GA are now in the favorable right quadrant of the system. A trough of low pressure is expected to form over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico late in the weekend or early next week. Some subsequent development of this system is possible as it remains nearly stationary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 5, 2016 Share Posted August 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 5, 2016 Share Posted August 5, 2016 I don't think I am allowed to post the EURO rain-total map..but...the max is 44.62" in Florida. A good swath of 2-4" for our Georgia posters. A bit more in the higher terrain. This is through 192 hours only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 5, 2016 Share Posted August 5, 2016 EURO insists development/strengthening OVER land. 1002mb coming up the west side of Georgia with strong lift mechanism on the right quadrant for GA mountains, upstate SC, and western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 5, 2016 Share Posted August 5, 2016 The SREF plumes have a max of 6.0" at Tampa in the next 84 hours, so I suppose that is an indicator of what may happen over some parts of Florida. The WPC 3-day QPF is as high at 9.77" north of Tampa and 2.65" north of Charlotte NC. Well, I hope none of you gets flooded out or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 5, 2016 Share Posted August 5, 2016 Regardless of development, a significant rainfall event is about to occur over FL and portions of the SE. Euro develops a TS overland lol. Something similar to Erin 2007 or Allison 2001 where they look like hurricanes overland. Brown ocean effect from all the rainfall the model is spitting out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 5, 2016 Share Posted August 5, 2016 The 18z GFS backed way off, keeping most of the precip in the gulf itself. We are going to end up with August being just as dry as July over much of SC, GA, and AL, because I don't think the GFS is through backing away from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted August 5, 2016 Share Posted August 5, 2016 Don't bet against the euro when it comes to tropical systems or hybrids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 6, 2016 Author Share Posted August 6, 2016 There may be a tight swirl due south of of southern most tip of the panhandle 30-50 miles???? ..you can see this on the visible satellite if you put it in motion around 21-23z before the cirrus from the NW covers it. 23z HRRR seems to pick up on this and develops it edit: its showing up on the SPC meso page at 500, 700 and even some at 850mb at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 Should have an invest by tomorrow the way they keep increasing the odds; will be interesting to see the tropical models run. Map below shows winds at 5k ft. TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 There may be a tight swirl due south of of southern most tip of the panhandle 30-50 miles???? ..you can see this on the visible satellite if you put it in motion around 21-23z before the cirrus from the NW covers it. 23z HRRR seems to pick up on this and develops it edit: its showing up on the SPC meso page at 500, 700 and even some at 850mb at 0z It's been visible on the KTLH radar for most of the day when the storms are around. Tucked over the gulf in the big bend area. MOB has another good write up about it in their afternoon LT disco.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...A nearly stationary andcomplex low pressure system, surface and aloft meanders over thesoutheast US. Attendant surface trof is forecast to be draped fromthe Carolinas southwest thru GA to the southeast LA coast thru thelong term period. A deeply moist, tropical airmass will be in placewith pwats looking to average between 2.25 and 2.5 inches thru theupcoming week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues tooutlook the northeast Gulf with a low (20% chance of tropical cycloneformation). Regardless of development, considering that the largesynoptic scale low pressure system will be a slow mover andinteracting with very deep atmospheric profiles, forecasters arebecoming increasing concerned about excessive rains and flooding.Latest gridded forecasts of event total rains ending on Fri August12th, suggest that the highest amounts, upwards of 5 to 10 inches ofrain, is possible along and southeast of I-65 and closer to thecoast. Could see areas along the coastal counties seeing rain gaugesfilling up to around 15 inches. These amounts will likely result inflooding problems and rapid response with river stages on theincrease. Stay tuned. /10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 EURO/GEM and some others agree on track will be through Tennessee into Pennsylvania...with some differences in timing/initial coming ashore/intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 The new "second area" in the Atlantic could have some influence in this event. The CMC develops a hurricane there and takes a left turn...ultimately flooding everywhere from Florida to North Carolina. Regardless of that bullish solution, something the coastal areas may wanna watch for some enhanced moisture and rip currents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 So it turns out the Atlantic area is from 96L that was deactivated upon its journey away from Africa. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 3h3 hours agoPennsylvania, USA Weatherbell not only watching NE gulf but also situation between Bahamas and Bermuda next week. latter may be close to NC late in week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 6, 2016 Author Share Posted August 6, 2016 A weak surface low has formed over Apalachee Bay..some banding on radar...and it looks like a "center" on radar too just offshore.. wind shear looks 10-15 kts out of the north REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1125 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY] 14 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OUT IN APALACHEE BAY, WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OCCURRING ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN SIDES OF THE LOW ACROSS OUR MARINE AREA AND EXTENDING INTO DIXIE COUNTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 6, 2016 Author Share Posted August 6, 2016 A weak surface low has formed over Apalachee Bay..some banding on radar...and it looks like a "center" on radar too just offshore.. wind shear looks 10-15 kts out of the north REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1125 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY] 14 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OUT IN APALACHEE BAY, WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OCCURRING ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN SIDES OF THE LOW ACROSS OUR MARINE AREA AND EXTENDING INTO DIXIE COUNTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 Becoming pretty evident seeing the early stages of cyclonic rotation/spin with the clouds streaming south-west out of Georgia. That's where I think the low is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 The newest GFS run has a 40+ inches dropping near Pensacola, up from 30-35 inches from 0z. I thought the Euro showing 44 yesterday was crazy. Maybe not, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 6, 2016 Author Share Posted August 6, 2016 06/1745 UTC 29.2N 83.4W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 It's beginning to look like only some pockets in SC and NC get much rain and all of it from tomorrow into Tues. The big mass of rain next weekend will be from western GA back across AL and north from there. Basically no drought relief in the Carolinas or GA through at least the next 2 weeks. i'm not looking for a single drop here indefinitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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