Kmlwx Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The 4km NAM loves us. But, NAM. I like how it prints out an isolated jackpot of like 10 inches in N Fauquier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 14 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Me too. I've gotten everything I could have asked for this summer. It's time for the big step down to fall. Just looking at the most recent ensemble runs of the GFS and Euro, I don't see another push of big heat in the extended range. We're starting to get to a point where climo isn't terribly uncomfortable IMO. Mid 80s at DCA with lows in the mid 60s. By the end of the month climo lows at BWI and IAD are near 60! That'll feel great. Another nice thing about late summer climo is low humidity heat becomes more common as wavelengths start to change and zonal flow becomes stronger. We've been stuck under persistent SW mid and upper level flow for a while. Which is typical in august of course. Downsloping 90 in Sept is pretty tolerable. And even with highs in the low 90's it can drop into the upper 60's at night no problem. Let's hope persistent sw flow is a thing of the past starting next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 19 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The 4km NAM loves us. But, NAM. No love from the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 22 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The 4km NAM loves us. But, NAM. understood, but the HRRR and HRRRX have also consistently been putting down fairly decent widespread amounts with localized major amounts. The location of the jackpot has been shifting around (not shocking), but I think it's pretty clear that the incoming shortwave interacting with the front and a lot of juice is going to produce a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 3 minutes ago, high risk said: understood, but the HRRR and HRRRX have also consistently been putting down fairly decent widespread amounts with localized major amounts. The location of the jackpot has been shifting around (not shocking), but I think it's pretty clear that the incoming shortwave interacting with the front and a lot of juice is going to produce a nice event. I'm hoping for the winter north trend. I don't need to be jackpotted but a .5 - 1" event would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 The ops HRRR really likes DC Metro, while the HRRRX really likes far northern MD. I'm going to take the average and put the jackpot in my backyard.... But both seem to agree on scattered cells during the late afternoon and then a bigger complex arriving during the evening hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 Flood Watch posted for parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: You can have it now. Us southern folks will take it in December Lol. Man, what I wouldn't give for a front loaded winter from Thanksgiving until New Year's. And the obligatory obs, nice breeze, more bearable, but still hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 What is the HRRR showing numbers wise? Any chance for a few screen caps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: What is the HRRR showing numbers wise? Any chance for a few screen caps? Previous run - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: What is the HRRR showing numbers wise? Any chance for a few screen caps? 14z total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 Hmm, doesn't seem all that bad. What's the run High Risk was talking about with the "major amounts"? For reference my number for concern is 4" within 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wow that's it? They popped a watch for that? What's the run High Risk was talking about with the "major amounts"? For reference my number for concern is 4" within 12 hours. Think the watch is more for the *potential* of training storms which might not be being picked up great on the guidance. 4km NAM was printing out some lol amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 Did we just get bumped into slight by SPC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 1 minute ago, H2O said: Did we just get bumped into slight by SPC? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 17, 2016 Author Share Posted August 17, 2016 That mini-max stripe in so. Frederick Co. shown on the HRRR is LOL. Seems pretty random and is pretty much the exact opposite of how things usually play out here. Hoping for any meaningful rain, but I'll take the (way) under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 Have to think if these clear blue skies just allow more daytime building up then when pollution had the skies a light brown much of the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 58 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Hmm, doesn't seem all that bad. What's the run High Risk was talking about with the "major amounts"? For reference my number for concern is 4" within 12 hours. I've been mostly looking at the HRRRX since this becomes operational next Tuesday, and one run earlier had a 4-5" max near Frederick. Latest run is here. Stripe of 3-4" (with a small 5" max - hard to see) just north of DC. I think the FFW is out since some of these areas got 3"+ Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 17, 2016 Author Share Posted August 17, 2016 14 minutes ago, high risk said: I've been mostly looking at the HRRRX since this becomes operational next Tuesday, and one run earlier had a 4-5" max near Frederick. Latest run is here. Stripe of 3-4" (with a small 5" max - hard to see) just north of DC. I think the FFW is out since some of these areas got 3"+ Monday. Now, that is a more realistic precip distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 There's a blue box issued outside the slight risk area...weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 1 hour ago, H2O said: Did we just get bumped into slight by SPC? 93 so far at DCA. Two more degrees to get the 95 streak to a solid 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 In case anyone doesn't know, wxbell has the HRRR for free. I like their panels the best because you can zoom into our region. Here's the link for bookmarks if you don't have it already. http://weather.graphics/hrrr/hrrr_maryland.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 Just got boxed for a STW until 8 pm........ There was a tornado warning just west of Charleston about 40 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In case anyone doesn't know, wxbell has the HRRR for free. I like their panels the best because you can zoom into our region. Here's the link for bookmarks if you don't have it already. http://weather.graphics/hrrr/hrrr_maryland.php Latest run is total meh. I don't think anyone hits an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Latest run is total meh. I don't think anyone hits an inch. mmm. ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 17, 2016 Author Share Posted August 17, 2016 The complete lack of any development in our region today is astounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: The complete lack of any development in our region today is astounding. What are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 17, 2016 Author Share Posted August 17, 2016 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: What are you talking about? Lack of any storms developing in the region as opposed to waiting for the line of storms out west to close in. Typically, 90 / 75 should be enough to get some popping (see southern VA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 8 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: The complete lack of any development in our region today is astounding. The HRRR wants to bring the line through (or around, probably) Stephens City at 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 lol the flash flood watch doesn't even go into effect until 4pm, which should give you an idea on timing. HRRRRR doesn't have anything even close to the 95 corridor until 8-9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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