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Aug OBS / Discuss


EastCoast NPZ

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14 minutes ago, mappy said:

blah, gonna miss out again. line split, some to the north in PA, bulk will go south of me. congrats Fozz and you northern baltimore beltway folks. 

 

sigh

Thanks :)

I've got a time lapse in motion as the skies darken... looking forward to this.

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5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Maybe I'm missing something but the radar looks pretty good for Mappy too.

Yeah, and she's in the warning too. It looks like the best of it will be a bit south of her and north of us, but I think she'll get hit.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
410 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

MDC005-013-162045-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0280.000000T0000Z-160816T2045Z/
BALTIMORE MD-CARROLL MD-
410 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BALTIMORE AND NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTIES...

AT 409 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HAMPSTEAD...OR
7 MILES EAST OF WESTMINSTER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES TO
         FALL. THIS COULD INJURE THOSE OUTDOORS...AS WELL AS DAMAGE
         HOMES AND VEHICLES. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME BLOCKED BY DOWNED
         TREES. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. UNSECURED
         LIGHT OBJECTS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COCKEYSVILLE...REISTERSTOWN...TIMONIUM...HAMPSTEAD...MANCHESTER...
GAMBER...LUTHERVILLE-TIMONIUM...PARKTON...UPPERCO...GREENMOUNT...
PHOENIX...FINKSBURG...GLYNDON...JACKSONVILLE...MILLERS...PATAPSCO...
MONKTON...HUNT VALLEY...BENTLEY SPRINGS AND HEREFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET INDOORS TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM WIND AND LIGHTNING. TREES AROUND
YOU MAY BE DOWNED FROM DAMAGING WINDS...SO IF YOU ARE NEAR LARGE
TREES...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. DON`T DRIVE
UNDERNEATH TREES OR IN WOODED AREAS UNTIL THE THREAT HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3946 7696 3956 7692 3968 7698 3971 7659
      3946 7655
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 267DEG 27KT 3957 7687

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

MJM
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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Meh, blue boxes are a dime a dozen these days.  I'm just hoping for a decent shelf cloud at this point with everything gusting out.

I saw one and wasn't anywhere near it. Like in a different state

 

mappy got into that line that was supposed to not happen because Hagerstown robbed it

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13 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Will be nice to finally get rid of this humidity for a bit.

 

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro Ens today

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_eus_1.png

Euro Ens next Tuesday

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_eus_8.png

 

I'd post the non-hotlinked images, but my image upload limit is .02MB :(

Looks good 

Can't wait

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10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Me too. I've gotten everything I could have asked for this summer. It's time for the big step down to fall. 

Just looking at the most recent ensemble runs of the GFS and Euro, I don't see another push of big heat in the extended range. We're starting to get to a point where climo isn't terribly uncomfortable IMO. Mid 80s at DCA with lows in the mid 60s. By the end of the month climo lows at BWI and IAD are near 60! 

That'll feel great. 

I want a big, strong powerful cold front with gusty wind advisory conditions behind it ASAP. Something that REALLY ushers in fall. I'm so done with this heat and ready for fall colors and fall in general. 

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Fifth day in a row with afternoon and evening thunderstorms here.  Today was the heaviest, with 0.80" of rain early in the afternoon.  More showers and some boomers around this evening.   Best kind of heat wave imo.  Some of the most awesome summer skies I can remember this last week.  The rare hot summer with much above normal precipitation.  Hope we get some tropical weather in September.

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Not that we are going to 100 today, but 87 at the 9am ob is as warm as it has been in this stretch. 

 

Marginal from SPC

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA... A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS GENERALLY EASTWARD TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS. THESE FEATURES WILL OVERSPREAD A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED PARTICULARLY ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THICKER EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER AND SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY. WHILE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM /-5 OR -6C AT 500 MB/ AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 25 KT...DIURNALLY STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL YIELD A POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS. AS SUCH...LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

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7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Not that we are going to 100 today, but 87 at the 9am ob is as warm as it has been in this stretch. 

 

Marginal from SPC

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA... A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS GENERALLY EASTWARD TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS. THESE FEATURES WILL OVERSPREAD A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED PARTICULARLY ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THICKER EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER AND SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY. WHILE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM /-5 OR -6C AT 500 MB/ AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 25 KT...DIURNALLY STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL YIELD A POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS. AS SUCH...LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

This kind of heat - particularly the overnight stuff - is only acceptable if storms are plentiful. One evening of rain isn't enough. This better happen!

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