packbacker Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 Great post Supercane! Didn't realize the ENSO/qbo state for nina was so overwhelming in both directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 1 hour ago, griteater said: Nice post Supercane, enjoyed it. I wish we had combined snow and ice data since ice is obviously a big component to the winter equation down here. I have compiled snow + ice data (liquid equivalent) for Charlotte back to the winter of 73-74 using hourly obs, but wish I had a longer record. I may look at those numbers with QBO/Nina when I get a chance. Looking at current QBO cycle...looks like we are due to flip soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Looking at current QBO cycle...looks like we are due to flip soon? We should be right in the heart of the +QBO in the lower stratosphere (30mb to 50mb) for winter. The positive values along the Equator on the left side from 10mb to 45mb, that's the +QBO. Unless something wacky happens, that should continue to decend through the stratosphere...so by Jan-Feb, the +QBO should be from, say, 20mb to 60mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 Thanks for the feedback guys. I made an animated gif to more easily compare how the QBO affects the pattern for each ENSO state. Neutral/La Nina: El Nino: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 18 minutes ago, griteater said: We should be right in the heart of the +QBO in the lower stratosphere (30mb to 50mb) for winter. The positive values along the Equator on the left side from 10mb to 45mb, that's the +QBO. Unless something wacky happens, that should continue to decend through the stratosphere...so by Jan-Feb, the +QBO should be from, say, 20mb to 60mb. Thanks Grit! I guess the wQBO is a help this winter as opposed to last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Thanks Grit! I guess the wQBO is a help this winter as opposed to last winter. On the Pacific side, it should be better....but -QBO/low solar would be better with the AO/NAO. Also, East Based Nina is better for AO/NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 8, 2016 Share Posted September 8, 2016 U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) Just now · In its schedule monthly update, NOAA removed the La Niña watch noting the chance of La Niña developing has been lowered to around 40% through the early winter. ENSO-neutral conditions are present and favored this winter. The forecast: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/…/…/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 I'm gonna make a very bold prediction.... December 2016 will be MUCH MUCH MUCH colder than December 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 On September 7, 2016 at 4:39 PM, griteater said: On the Pacific side, it should be better....but -QBO/low solar would be better with the AO/NAO. Also, East Based Nina is better for AO/NAO. New article on this year's QBO from science magazine if you guys are interested: http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/09/unprecedented-disruption-atmospheres-pacemaker-foretells-wet-winter-europe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted September 9, 2016 Author Share Posted September 9, 2016 Is +QBO east or west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 10, 2016 Share Posted September 10, 2016 6 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I'm gonna make a very bold prediction.... December 2016 will be MUCH MUCH MUCH colder than December 2015. Meaning January, February and March being much warmer? Just the flip hypothesis ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted September 10, 2016 Share Posted September 10, 2016 2 hours ago, lookingnorth said: Is +QBO east or west? West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 White Christmas for the southeast. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 8 hours ago, LithiaWx said: White Christmas for the southeast. Book it. Problem with areas outside the mountains is Christmas is not prim time for winter storms. Early January to early March is when storms tend to get suppressed south enough to provide winter storms (..normally). There has been some discussion of a front end winter this year; but that could be fading now with the fading prospects of la nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 9 hours ago, LithiaWx said: White Christmas for the southeast. Book it. Just told my 6 year old. You better deliver or he will be making a trip to Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 Just FYI for winter ensemble model gazing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 On September 9, 2016 at 2:41 PM, Snowless in Carrollton said: I'm gonna make a very bold prediction.... December 2016 will be MUCH MUCH MUCH colder than December 2015. Well be careful there. I think I said this time last year that I was sure December 2015 would be much colder than December 2014. Even with the strong El Niño that seemed like an automatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 UK Met Office Seasonal Model (Sept Update). Going with -EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 25 minutes ago, griteater said: UK Met Office Seasonal Model (Sept Update). Going with -EPO I'll take it but the precipitation map is scary. Looks like a lot of App runners. https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/epo-what-you-need-to-know/43796/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted September 13, 2016 Author Share Posted September 13, 2016 On September 12, 2016 at 8:53 AM, griteater said: Just FYI for winter ensemble model gazing... How is the NCEP skill negative at day 15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 Greetings folks. I didn't see this posted yet, so here's the early look at winter fron JB/Weatherbell. http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2016-17-forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 I saw something intereating today on Facebook from WRAL weather. They had an intern that did a study on how accurate the GFS is in forecasting snow for central NC. He found that it generally forecasts more than we actually get, which isn't a surprise. What was interesting is he found the GFS was more accurate at 72 hours out than earlier or later forecasts. Something to keep in mind for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 33 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Greetings folks. I didn't see this posted yet, so here's the early look at winter fron JB/Weatherbell. http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2016-17-forecast Thanks for posting this mitch. If February ends up being the big winter month that will make three years in a row for us. Fab February rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted September 14, 2016 Author Share Posted September 14, 2016 42 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Thanks for posting this mitch. If February ends up being the big winter month that will make three years in a row for us. Fab February rules Wasn't January the big winter month last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 that's hilarious can someone show me with PROOF in just "1 example" where JB/WB has "ever" forecasted a winter scenario showing below normal snowfall from Atlanta, GA into New England w/ the back end of winter being warmer/dryer/less severe than the first half? and not a "updated backtrack forecast" in late Jan. also isn't the February and March averages just snowier than December and January anyways for many of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 Can't wait to spend the first half of the winter waiting and hoping for the second half of Feb and March to pay off, while December has a maximum of 4 low temp readings below freezing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 4 hours ago, lookingnorth said: How is the NCEP skill negative at day 15? Zero correlation means a coin flip. So, negative means that the NCEP skill at Day 15 is actually worse than flipping a coin - in other words, very bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 9 hours ago, lookingnorth said: Wasn't January the big winter month last year? Your right. Our January 22nd storm was the biggest storm. We then had a significant ice storm in February but still not at the scale/impact of the first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 8 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Can't wait to spend the first half of the winter waiting and hoping for the second half of Feb and March to pay off, while December has a maximum of 4 low temp readings below freezing! We talked about this before, but the way I see it is winter forecast are as reliable as the 16 day GFS. I enjoy reading them and try not to disrespect a persons views, but our knowledge and technology are just not good enough at this point. It wouldn't surprise me if we get two big winter storms in December and then nothing afterwards. With weather, and particularly the SE, it really comes down to us getting lucky and having things line up perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: We talked about this before, but the way I see it is winter forecast are as reliable as the 16 day GFS. I enjoy reading them and try not to disrespect a persons views, but our knowledge and technology are just not good enough at this point. It wouldn't surprise me if we get two big winter storms in December and then nothing afterwards. With weather, and particularly the SE, it really comes down to us getting lucky and having things line up perfectly. Yep, good post. Exactly right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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