Winter 2016-17 discussion

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, packbacker said:

Not so sure...I am surprised we haven't seen a complete pac flip but so far the nina hasn't materialized as we thought either. 

Will be curious what Aug PDO # is, I would guess it gets posted this week.

Would not be surprised to see August's PDO number below +1. This La Niña is unusual in that it is a very classic "Modoki" or Central Pacific La Niña. The traditional Ninas of years past have been East Pacific Ninas, unlike this one

[raindancewx]

NOAA had the PDO at the lowest value since December 2013 - in December 2013, JISAO (University of Washington) had the PDO at -0.41. So it may be right around 0 for August. If you split the PDO mean value from Nov-Apr into thirds, a third of years are ~+/- 0.4  by how JISAO measures - I lean towards that or positive rather than truly negative.

[pcbjr]

Just FWIW  - the last 2 times Fla had a hurricane ('04, several; '05 a couple) the Nov - Feb period for the SE was relatively warm. Just observing ...

[NWNC2015]

30 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

Just FWIW  - the last 2 times Fla had a hurricane ('04, several; '05 a couple) the Nov - Feb period for the SE was relatively warm. Just observing ...

 

It's part of the bigger picture...not just Florida strikes...but where the hurricanes go and perhaps more importantly "the features they are going around to avoid" seems to give us warm winters as the larger scale atmosphere doesn't change that quickly between now and then.

[pcbjr]

Just a pinch of salt to throw into the stew pot before even turning on the burner - a lot more ingredients need to be added between now and mid-October before I go out on a limb, but it's always interesting to look and see what prior seasons and events ended up bringing our way ... it's part of the mix.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

NOAA had the PDO at the lowest value since December 2013 - in December 2013, JISAO (University of Washington) had the PDO at -0.41. So it may be right around 0 for August. If you split the PDO mean value from Nov-Apr into thirds, a third of years are ~+/- 0.4  by how JISAO measures - I lean towards that or positive rather than truly negative.

Just eyeballing the August SSTs, I think the PDO will come out neutral for the month, without a doubt it will be lower than July.

[packbacker]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

NOAA had the PDO at the lowest value since December 2013 - in December 2013, JISAO (University of Washington) had the PDO at -0.41. So it may be right around 0 for August. If you split the PDO mean value from Nov-Apr into thirds, a third of years are ~+/- 0.4  by how JISAO measures - I lean towards that or positive rather than truly negative.

I assume the NOAA one your referencing is the NCEI PDO index?  For the JISAO I see it as positive...what link do you use there?  I have this one...

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

 

[packbacker]

Difference between (-ENSO/-PDO) and (-ENSO/+PDO).  I did this really quickly so pardon if I missed one or two.

Aleutian ridge v/s Aleutian low

I don't know what will happen in the PAC come this winter but all the seasonals (Euro/JAMSTEC/CFS/UKMet) as of now are predicting +PDO...but we will see.

 

[tarheelwx]

So we want a +PDO for a colder SE winter, right?

TW

[snowman19]

On September 3, 2016 at 10:53 PM, griteater said:

Solar Flux at solar min levels and still declining - solar cycle not at minimum levels for another year or 2

Griteater, Do you have a composite of what Central Pacific Ninas look like over the CONUS by any chance? Thanks

[raindancewx]

I use this link (NOAA) as a preview of the University of Washington PDO value. 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/  (scroll way down)

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[Jon]

So we want a +PDO for a colder SE winter, right?

TW

Yep, +PDO supports a ridge on the west coast.

[pcbjr]

3 hours ago, Jon said:

Yep, +PDO supports a ridge on the west coast.

Jon,

Just getting power and internet back after our little rainstorm Friday (FEMA - otherwise we'd be dark another 3 days!). Damn tornadoes that want to accompany a hurricane ....

Just out of curiosity - any years with both a +PDO and +PNA so I can look at some composites (after a hot shower and figuring out who I need to email back for work)?

Thanks!

Phil

[griteater]

21 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Griteater, Do you have a composite of what Central Pacific Ninas look like over the CONUS by any chance? Thanks

Here's Central Pacific (West Based) vs. East Pacific (East Based) Nina.  I removed the strong Ninas.  As of now, we are tracking toward a Central Pac Weak Nina.  -NAO is favored in East Pac Nina years.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Here's Central Pacific (West Based) vs. East Pacific (East Based) Nina.  I removed the strong Ninas.  As of now, we are tracking toward a Central Pac Weak Nina.  -NAO is favored in East Pac Nina years.

Thanks. Wow huge difference between east-based and central-based La Niña winters

[Cold Rain]

Looks like a nice strong Pac jet and +NAO during central Pac Ninas.  Hardly gets any better than that.

[FallsLake]

The 98/99 (central) year featured the Christmas ice storm. No power on Christmas Eve was not fun:

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database_details.php?e=211

And of course 95/96 (east) was a decent year overall.

[griteater]

2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Looks like a nice strong Pac jet and +NAO during central Pac Ninas.  Hardly gets any better than that.

CR, to be fair, all of the CP Nina winters in the composite occurred either during -QBO winters or when just entering the -QBO.  We should be in +QBO this winter.  Per HM's analysis, -QBO/Nina favors Alaska low pressure (+EPO) / suppressed Aleutian High, while +QBO/Nina favors poleward Aleutian High.  So, the logical pattern to mabye look for would be the Pac pattern from the East Pac composite (poleward Aleutian High), and Atlantic pattern from the Central Pac composite (less of a -NAO).  Of course, these things always follow the plan 

 

[griteater]

Maybe something like this...

[snowman19]

 

CR, to be fair, all of the CP Nina winters in the composite occurred either during -QBO winters or when just entering the -QBO.  We should be in +QBO this winter.  Per HM's analysis, -QBO/Nina favors Alaska low pressure (+EPO) / suppressed Aleutian High, while +QBO/Nina favors poleward Aleutian High.  So, the logical pattern to mabye look for would be the Pac pattern from the East Pac composite (poleward Aleutian High), and Atlantic pattern from the Central Pac composite (less of a -NAO).  Of course, these things always follow the plan 

 

Wasn't it the other way around? +QBO with a Niña supported a warm winter? I'm almost positive the book Joe D'Aleo wrote on ENSO stated that's what the research found. I'll look it up again now

[snowman19]

 

Wasn't it the other way around? +QBO with a Niña supported a warm winter? I'm almost positive the book Joe D'Aleo wrote on ENSO stated that's what the research found. I'll look it up again now

Here it is: https://books.google.com/books?id=PvJyVtw53Y4C&pg=PA126&lpg=PA126&dq=d'aleo+nina+qbo&source=bl&ots=IYxtCysNKl&sig=_fxreHJ7ZrntYaSML_x_U1NpkK0&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjHvqy9v_vOAhUG_R4KHW8eCnAQ6AEILjAC#v=onepage&q=d'aleo nina qbo&f=false

[griteater]

 

Wasn't it the other way around? +QBO with a Niña supported a warm winter? I'm almost positive the book Joe D'Aleo wrote on ENSO stated that's what the research found. I'll look it up again now

My comment on QBO/Nina was strictly with respect to the placement of the North Pac High.  

http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012/04/qbo-aleutian-high-relationship.html

[buckeyefan1]

I'm going to wait until the woolly worm festival before I give my thoughts on how this winter will go        

[snowman19]

 

My comment on QBO/Nina was strictly with respect to the placement of the North Pac High.  

http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012/04/qbo-aleutian-high-relationship.html

Ok got ya thank you 

[jburns]

 

The 98/99 (central) year featured the Christmas ice storm. No power on Christmas Eve was not fun:

 

Thank God for Rudolph!

[Cold Rain]

 

CR, to be fair, all of the CP Nina winters in the composite occurred either during -QBO winters or when just entering the -QBO.  We should be in +QBO this winter.  Per HM's analysis, -QBO/Nina favors Alaska low pressure (+EPO) / suppressed Aleutian High, while +QBO/Nina favors poleward Aleutian High.  So, the logical pattern to mabye look for would be the Pac pattern from the East Pac composite (poleward Aleutian High), and Atlantic pattern from the Central Pac composite (less of a -NAO).  Of course, these things always follow the plan 

 

Ok, gotcha.  Makes sense.  Thanks man!

[packbacker]

 

My comment on QBO/Nina was strictly with respect to the placement of the North Pac High.  

http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012/04/qbo-aleutian-high-relationship.html

Quickly plotted RDU's snowy nina's v/s the non-snowy, regardless of QBO/solar/PDO.  Pac high placement is interesting of the snowy composite...+QBO may help.  Also the Atl SST difference isn't surprising either which may hurt unless it cools a lot more.

Top composites are the non-snowy.

[griteater]

Nice plots Pack.  Yes, it makes sense that +QBO/Nina would generally be better than -QBO/Nina...i.e. better chance for some cold periods with poleward Pac high

[Supercane]

Regarding the QBO, last year I posted stats showing how QBO correlates to RDU snowfall, depending on the state of ENSO. In short, westerly/weakly easterly QBO favors more (less) snow when ENSO is neutral/cool (warm), and vice versa for strongly easterly. Below are the RDU stats updated to include last year, which fit nicely with the correlation.

 

Neutral/Cool ENSO + Westerly/Weak Easterly QBO

1954-55: 16.8

1955-56: 2.0

1959-60: 18.7

1961-62: 14.8

1964-65: 13.5

1966-67: 10.6

1967-68: 5.7

1971-72: 7.7

1973-74: 5.7

1975-76: 3.0

1978-79: 18.3

1980-81: 5.7

1985-86: 0.9

1988-89: 12.0

1995-96: 14.6

1999-00: 25.8

2001-02: 10.8

2008-09: 7.1

2010-11: 9.0

2013-14: 5.8

Average Snowfall: 10.4"

Median Snowfall: 9.8"

 

Neutral/Cool ENSO + Strong Easterly QBO

1956-57: 0

1960-61: 3.8

1962-63: 8.3

1970-71: 5.9

1974-75: 0.6

1981-82: 6.6

1983-84: 6.9

1984-85: 4.1

1989-90: 2.7

1996-97: 0.4

1998-99: 0

2000-01: 2.6

2005-06: 0

2007-08: 0.5

2011-12: 0.9

2012-13: 0.7

Average Snowfall: 2.8"

Median Snowfall: 2.2"

 

The difference in the pattern between the Neutral/Cool ENSO datasets seems to be mostly in the Pacific (as HM/griteater have shown). The westerly QBO years yield more northward-displaced Gulf of Alaska ridge centered in the Aleutians, whereas the easterly years have the high well south of Alaska and more ridging nosing into the southeast.

Now for the warm ENSO years...

 

Warm ENSO + Westerly/Weak Easterly QBO

1957-58: 7.9

1963-64: 3.5

1969-70: 2.0

1977-78: 10.6

1982-83: 11.8

1987-88: 7.9

1990-91: 0

1992-93: 2.5

1993-94: 4.4

1994-95: 2.2

1997-98: 2.4

2002-03: 7.4

2004-05: 0.9

2006-07: 1.6

2015-16: 1.4

Average Snowfall: 4.4"

Median Snowfall: 2.5"

 

Warm ENSO + Strong Easterly QBO

1958-59: 13.5

1965-66: 11.8

1968-69: 12.0

1972-73: 11.3

1976-77: 3.6

1979-80: 18.3

1986-87: 10.8

1991-92: 0

2003-04: 14.9

2009-10: 8.0

2014-15: 7.9

Average Snowfall: 10.2"

Median Snowfall: 11.3"

 

In warm ENSO winters, the difference in pattern seems to be mostly related to the NAO. The easterly QBO years yield a robust negative NAO pattern, whereas there is little NAO signal at all in the westerly years.

Of course, these stats are only for RDU -- perhaps when time permits I'll look into other areas as well. My guess is that, given the noticeable differences in the 500mb pattern, snowfall in most areas of the southeast will reflect this correlation.

 

[griteater]

Nice post Supercane, enjoyed it.  I wish we had combined snow and ice data since ice is obviously a big component to the winter equation down here.  I have compiled snow + ice data (liquid equivalent) for Charlotte back to the winter of 73-74 using hourly obs, but wish I had a longer record.  I may look at those numbers with QBO/Nina when I get a chance.