Winter 2016-17 discussion

[Jon]

7 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Since 89 we have several good winters/events in weak nina's or neutral neg's (89/96/00/02/09/14).  Majority of the nino's have sucked.  I don't have much hope for this winter but that's more from us sucking so bad for so long seems hopeless. 

I thought Grit had posted a chart somewhere that RDU did better in nina's than nino's.  I am sure 00 skews it some but it's worth something I guess.

I guess it depends on what data you use for differentiating weak/neutral. Using the data I linked to earlier, I get this for intensities for those years:

88-89: 65 strong
95-96: 58 mod
99-00: 63 strong
01-02: 33 neutral
08-09: 56 mod
13-14: 44 neutral

In my opinion Eric Webb's data (webberweather) is the best at this point that I can find, it takes mostly everything into account (latest papers, etc). He last updated the data August 3rd. http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/NCEINCAR-Multivariate-ENSO-Index-MEI-Raw-Data-Rankings-1948-Present.txt

[Jon]

For the years in this image (weak to moderate Ninas w/ +PDO using Webber's data) this is the snowfall for RDU and their corresponding Nina strengths since 1950. Also I included if they were the result of one event.

Year/Snowfall (RDU)/Nina Strength

1963 7" Weak: one event, 1963-02-26
1984 6.9" Weak: one event, 1984-02-06

1985 4.1" Weak
1996 13.7" Mod
1997 0.4" Weak
2001 0.4" Mod

N=7 average=5.4" snow, even considering the bad years of 97 and 2001.

 

 

I guess the bottom line is we do this every year, and usually composites almost never work out. History does repeat itself, but in this day and age, it's become less and less predictable IMO.

[packbacker]

I guess it depends on what data you use for differentiating weak/neutral. Using the data I linked to earlier, I get this for intensities for those years:

88-89: 65 strong
95-96: 58 mod
99-00: 63 strong
01-02: 33 neutral
08-09: 56 mod
13-14: 44 neutral

In my opinion Eric Webb's data (webberweather) is the best at this point that I can find, it takes mostly everything into account (latest papers, etc). He last updated the data August 3rd. http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/NCEINCAR-Multivariate-ENSO-Index-MEI-Raw-Data-Rankings-1948-Present.txt

I didn't express that correctly, I meant to say any neutral/neg Nina. As you pointed out the whole gamut is covered.

As for analogs...last winter went to plan, strong+ Nino and we blowtorched. Sure, we wanted to focus on the cold analogs though.

[Met1985]

Packbacker is posting! Must be close to cold weather season! 

[SN_Lover]

I am so thrilled to get the pain over with already. Lakes low even on the CFS. Of course things are gonna change, but ill check in with the long range in October  

Saw hello lakes low everyone!!! 

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, SimeonNC said:

I forgot why a lakes low was a bad thing, care to explain again?

In the winter it keeps the cold air from really coming south into our area.

[NWNC2015]

Nothing to get worried about over the great lakes low I'm sure we will have plenty of other permanent features like a trashy pacific, south-east ridge, +nao, and many more to discuss this winter.

[Cold Rain]

47 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

Nothing to get worried about over the great lakes low I'm sure we will have plenty of other permanent features like a trashy pacific, south-east ridge, +nao, and many more to discuss this winter.

Truth!

By the way, have you seen Mackerel Sky lately?

[NWNC2015]

3 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Truth!

By the way, have you seen Mackerel Sky lately?

Nope, I'm hoping he and that guy with the moles forgot their password.

[SN_Lover]

4 hours ago, NWNC2015 said:

Nothing to get worried about over the great lakes low I'm sure we will have plenty of other permanent features like a trashy pacific, south-east ridge, +nao, and many more to discuss this winter.

True. Not holding my breath for a NAO. 

3 hours ago, SimeonNC said:

Everyone is already cliffdiving on this winter before it begins, I can't say much but I can guarantee that it will NOT be a snow-less winter for most of us.

Who? And thanks for stating the obvious. 

[Cold Rain]

^ When you read a winter forecast, and you see words like: Ohio Valley, Interior Northeast, Great Lakes, Mid-Mississippi River Valley, Mid-South, Mid-Atlantic, Midnight, Midwife, Middle Earth, or basically Mid-Anything, that's code for a sucky southeast winter.

[Cold Rain]

^ When you read a winter forecast, and you see words like: Ohio Valley, Interior Northeast, Great Lakes, Mid-Mississippi River Valley, Mid-South, Mid-Atlantic, Midnight, Midwife, Middle Earth, or basically Mid-Anything, that's code for a sucky southeast winter.

[FallsLake]

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

^ When you read a winter forecast, and you see words like: Ohio Valley, Interior Northeast, Great Lakes, Mid-Mississippi River Valley, Mid-South, Mid-Atlantic, Midnight, Midwife, Middle Earth, or basically Mid-Anything, that's code for a sucky southeast winter.

Sounds like you're having a mid-life crises there CR.... But seriously, we have no idea how this winter will play out. It honestly seems that when folks call for a colder winter we end up warmer. And conversely, when a warm winter is called we end up good. It really comes down to the short term indices, and how they setup for possible winter events. 

[SN_Lover]

4 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Sounds like you're having a mid-life crises there CR.... But seriously, we have no idea how this winter will play out. It honestly seems that when folks call for a colder winter we end up warmer. And conversely, when a warm winter is called we end up good. It really comes down to the short term indices, and how they setup for possible winter events. 

haha i think we all are just speculating at this point and pointing fun at the lakes low. It's all fun in games still, until october, then it's serious business 

[jburns]

3 hours ago, SimeonNC said:

The following paragraph is from the accuweather forums is an interesting take on the current and future conditions. Keep in mind that this may be slightly biased based on the geographical location of the poster and should be taken with a grain of salt like any outlook at this point. I have put some of the more interesting parts in bold font.

 

" Trends for a strong negative NAO/AO are stronger this year then the last several based on the very warm waters compared to normal over western Greenland and eastern Canada making blocking there much more likely. PDO has fallen flat, but not out thanks to the GoA remaining warmer compared to normal despite the west coast of the US colder then normal. This actually may be a godsend for snow lovers and could lead to a blockbuster year for areas along and east of the Mississippi river as the ridge out west will be flatter and broader while the trough out east will have a tendency to be stronger and more amplified thanks to the blocking upstream. With a flatter jet out west, storm systems will be able to retain more moisture and punch and could really pop once they start hitting the warmer moist air of the east. If a southeast ridge is in play which I think at this point it will then we could see several blizzard events as the storms wind up with the clash of warm moist air and cold arctic air with the Mid Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio Valley and interior northeast and southern Great Lakes in the bullseye for above average winter events and amounts. January and February into March looking quite brutal at times. December though like the last several years might be quite disappointing as the pattern hasn't established yet, but time will tell. Also the sun approaching minimum must also be considered. It won't be there yet, but not far off, so solar insolation should be slightly less compared to normal. Not enough to make a huge difference, but any bit helps." 

 

Fun read. The description sounds like app runners are the most likely in the writer's opinion. SE ridges tend to produce golf weather here not snows.  But, it is just one opinion and a long way out so I wouldn't take it too seriously.

[Brick Tamland]

On 8/4/2016 at 0:31 PM, Cold Rain said:

We are in a period of mostly +NAOs and fewer winter storms.  We can attribute it to global warming, solar, magnetic pole shift, or aliens.  But the fact of the matter is, until there is evidence that that pattern is broken, the safest (and most likely to be correct) winter calls will likely be normal to warmer, a +NAO in the means for D-J, and less snow overall, regardless of what analogues or ENSO or other indecies suggest.  Persistence forecasting is not really sexy and doesn't really require a lot of scientific input.  I'm nowhere near smart enough to know why things currently are the way they are, but I appreciate and admire the exploration of it by all of you guys every year.  But I think slightly above average temps with below average snowfall is a safe, general forecast for the SE this year.

I think that's the way to go until we actually see a winter that is different. Maybe we'll get lucky and have at least one big storm this winter with snow above 6 inches for a change.

[Brick Tamland]

You know as wet as it has been in central and eastern NC this summer it will be dry as a bone in winter. 

[NWNC2015]

As some have already seen, my winter forecast still stands for one 6" snow storm north or west of the blue line. This was issued earlier this summer in the banter thread. Also, there will be a handful of smaller events including snow, sleet, ice etc. in the same areas. Outside of that zone, one or two small events will be possible particularity in the form of snow flurries but not coming close to 6". One may come in late winter and one in early Spring. Winter as a whole will be a roller coaster...with well above normal temps and below normal temps. The average will be a coin toss but not far in either direction. Precip looks to be below normal area wide from the mountains to the coast. 

Mountains 20-100", elevation dependent, non-severe winter

Foothills 4-8", highest range being northern foothills, below avg winter compared to previous years

Piedmont 2-4", primarily north and west, drought monitor worth watching from Charlotte to Atlanta, Raleigh slightly wetter

SC/GA No southern slider expected. One light snow event possible in the mountain counties. One flurry event possible elsewhere briefly overnight.

[griteater]

This is how we roll with the NAO over the last 2 years...

[LithiaWx]

8 minutes ago, griteater said:

This is how we roll with the NAO over the last 2 years...

That's our problem.  - in the summer and + in the winter. 

[Cary_Snow95]

I am holding out all hope for a December 2010 repeat. That was a weak Nina if I remember correctly. All in for that LOL

[Met1985]

Currently I'm going with a mild below average winter for the majority of the SE. I like what CR said.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

No way we have another horrible winter. 4 out of the last 5 winters have been awful in ATL. This is even worse than the stretch of bad winters we had from 2003-2008. One more bad winter and it will go down as the worst decade for winters in my lifetime.

[NWNC2015]

3 hours ago, SimeonNC said:

I believe the majority of North Carolina and parts of Georgia/South Carolina has a chance of seeing a decent storm this winter as the majority of long range forecasts at the moment suggest an active January and February for the entire eastern third of the U.S

Well in the winter typically the majority do NOT stand a significant enough chance at a decent winter storm. Also, long range forecasts show patterns...not realistic specific big dogs...and we know house smashing tree crashing patterns rarely produce. 

I care more about accuracy.

[Met1985]

19 hours ago, NWNC2015 said:

Well in the winter typically the majority do NOT stand a significant enough chance at a decent winter storm. Also, long range forecasts show patterns...not realistic specific big dogs...and we know house smashing tree crashing patterns rarely produce. 

I care more about accuracy.

The word significant winter weather varies greatly from the mountains to the east. Some may think 2 inches is significant but in the mountains that is not significant. 

[pcbjr]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

The word significant winter weather varies greatly from the mountains to the east. Some may think 2 inches is significant but in the mountains that is not significant

Well said.

"Significant" down here is 18º or less (clear and NW wind as it may be, but happens more than you would imagine) or 31º and flurries (also happens more years than you would imagine). Of course - I'd take 4" just to watch north Fla totally go apoplectic  

Here's hoping everyone gets what they feel is "significant" this year - but let's get the SEC and ACC football underway first!

[Jon]

On ‎8‎/‎8‎/‎2016 at 7:51 PM, NWNC2015 said:

As some have already seen, my winter forecast still stands for one 6" snow storm north or west of the blue line. This was issued earlier this summer in the banter thread. Also, there will be a handful of smaller events including snow, sleet, ice etc. in the same areas. Outside of that zone, one or two small events will be possible particularity in the form of snow flurries but not coming close to 6". One may come in late winter and one in early Spring. Winter as a whole will be a roller coaster...with well above normal temps and below normal temps. The average will be a coin toss but not far in either direction. Precip looks to be below normal area wide from the mountains to the coast. 

Mountains 20-100", elevation dependent, non-severe winter

Foothills 4-8", highest range being northern foothills, below avg winter compared to previous years

Piedmont 2-4", primarily north and west, drought monitor worth watching from Charlotte to Atlanta, Raleigh slightly wetter

SC/GA No southern slider expected. One light snow event possible in the mountain counties. One flurry event possible elsewhere briefly overnight.


 

Lol....I don't know what to say. This is ridiculous. Sorry. 20-100" and you say "Precip looks to be below normal area wide from the mountains to the coast." A 100" winter in the mountains would have to come from an above average or at least normal precip winter. The average seasonal maximum is 24". Please explain your reasoning....I doubt this has any remote chance of verifying.

[FallsLake]

10 hours ago, pcbjr said:

Well said.

"Significant" down here is 18º or less (clear and NW wind as it may be, but happens more than you would imagine) or 31º and flurries (also happens more years than you would imagine). Of course - I'd take 4" just to watch north Fla totally go apoplectic  

Here's hoping everyone gets what they feel is "significant" this year - but let's get the SEC and ACC football underway first!

Anything is possible. As a kid I lived at Satellite Beach (near Cape Canaveral) during the cold wave of 1977. I remember being jealous of northern Florida for having lows in the teens. We still got well below freezing and supposedly received flurries, but I didn't see them.  **I also remember hearing this old lady from Miami state that the flurries they had were the first snow she had ever seen.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_wave_of_January_1977

 

And of course another 1899 storm would make many in Florida really happy

 

[NC_hailstorm]

Eh we're about to enter a period of low solar activity not seen since the mud 1600's. Professor Valentina Zharkova had an excellent research on this recently but I think there's still going to be a lag time.

[lookingnorth]

WXRisk has posted their first speculation for the winter of 2016-17. Their opinion seems to be that the amount of cold and snow this winter is dependent on how strong of a la nina there will be. The stronger the nina, the warmer the winter (in general).

Their top analogs are (in chronological order, along with snow and temps for RDU)

1954-55: 16.8", 40.7

1964-65: 13.5", 42.2

1974-75: 0.6", 43.6

1995-96: 14.6", 40.0

2000-01: 2.6", 41.2

2011-12: 0.9", 47.0

Avg.: 8.2", 42.4

1950-2016 avg: 6.6", 42.0

So if WXRisk is using the right analogs, there is a decent chance it will be warmer and snowier than average. However, I will be in Oklahoma most of the winter, so if North Carolina gets an awesome winter and Oklahoma gets a terrible winter, I'll be mad at myself.