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Winter 2016-17 discussion

lookingnorth

By lookingnorth,
in Southeastern States

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Weatherfan2 said:

With the Neutral negative, it increases the chances of a ice storm occurring.

SON came in at -0.8 so it was still trending up.  But latest weekly values came in lower.  Would think that SON is the peak, atleast for this winter.

Screen Shot 2016-12-06 at 8.45.06 AM.png

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NC_hailstorm

NC_hailstorm

Posted
Posted

The way in which solar activity affects the behaviour of blocking episodes is linked to the amount of ultraviolet (UV) emissions being produced by the Sun.

Solar UV heats the stratosphere (20-50km above the surface), particularly the equatorial stratosphere. This results in a temperature gradient, which leads to the formation of high level winds.

"The change in solar activity undoubtedly changes the stratospheric winds," said Mike Lockwood, professor of space environment physics at the University of Reading, UK.

Studies have shown that the state of the stratosphere can make a considerable difference to what happens in the troposphere, which is where the jet stream occurs, Professor Lockwood explained.

"There has been some quite simple modelling that indicated that heating the equatorial stratosphere with more UV would actually move the jet streams a little bit, by just a few degrees.

"That, of course, has the potential to change the behaviour of the jet streams - and that is the sort of thing that we think we are seeing."

"This... 'blocking' does seem to be one of the things that can be modulated by solar activity," he said.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Another spotless day on the sun,solar flux really low at 72.9 for todays reading.

Solar forcing very favorable,MJO (tropical forcing)favorable as well.

SpaceWeather still has a number at 12 but it looks like it should be zero at this point. It's going to be interesting to see how the sun activity ultimately affects the weather/climate as we head towards minimum.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

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NC_hailstorm

NC_hailstorm

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

SpaceWeather still has a number at 12 but it looks like it should be zero at this point. It's going to be interesting to see how the sun activity ultimately affects the weather/climate as we head towards minimum.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

I like this site too.

http://www.solen.info/solar/

 

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

For you analog fans, Read over in the MA forum where psuhoffman said Jan 2000 was the analog showing up for our upcoming January. That month featured the greatest 10 day stretch of winter weather in central NC history. 4 winter storm warnings, crusher being one of them.

Analogs are awesome and never wrong! :(

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

For you analog fans, Read over in the MA forum where psuhoffman said Jan 2000 was the analog showing up for our upcoming January. That month featured the greatest 10 day stretch of winter weather in central NC history. 4 winter storm warnings, crusher being one of them.

This?

 

cd70.184.144.94.347.13.43.18.prcp.png

gLslRMA5cI.png

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NC_hailstorm

NC_hailstorm

Posted
Posted
On ‎12‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 11:32 AM, Met1985 said:

Could you post some more info on solar activity and the weather patterns. I find it very interesting.

Sure,been busy lately but have a little time now.

http://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Mursula_03_2014.pdf

 

I found this research paper a few months ago and was skeptical,but this has been spot on this year and a good reason why we got what we got this year.Couple things I see:

-Solar wind and EEP levels are far more important than UV Flux and cosmic rays when predicting NAO in the Northern Hemisphere.

-Declining solar phases produce far more solar mind/EEP which produces positive NAO,no matter how weak or strong the cycles are.

-Easterly QBO produces more -NAO than a westerly phase(better chance)

-SSW's have to be strong and persistent to overcome the solar signal (like 1985,2004)

 

So until we get out of this declining solar cycle,cut down the solar wind and EEP(electron precipitation)and get the QBO to switch,we got what we got.Throw in a La Nina and you see how we got here.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Sure,been busy lately but have a little time now.

http://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Mursula_03_2014.pdf

 

I found this research paper a few months ago and was skeptical,but this has been spot on this year and a good reason why we got what we got this year.Couple things I see:

-Solar wind and EEP levels are far more important than UV Flux and cosmic rays when predicting NAO in the Northern Hemisphere.

-Declining solar phases produce far more solar mind/EEP which produces positive NAO,no matter how weak or strong the cycles are.

-Easterly QBO produces more -NAO than a westerly phase(better chance)

-SSW's have to be strong and persistent to overcome the solar signal (like 1985,2004)

 

So until we get out of this declining solar cycle,cut down the solar wind and EEP(electron precipitation)and get the QBO to switch,we got what we got.Throw in a La Nina and you see how we got here.

Thank you! Great info.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

Through Feb. 23, daily record highs have been blowing away daily record lows by a far greater than 100-to-1 ratio, which, if it holds for a few more days, would itself set a record. So far this month, there have been nearly 5,000 daily record highs set or tied, compared to just 42 daily record lows. (Although this records ratio might need an asterisk, considering the short calendar month.)

And it's not the daily records that are most impressive, but rather the number of monthly records that are being tied or broken from the Gulf Coast all the way to the Midwest and northeastward into Canada. During the past week alone (not including Feb. 23), there were 736 daily record highs set or tied in the U.S., compared to zero daily record lows for the same period. 

Even more startling is the number of record warm overnight temperatures set or tied in the past seven days, which total a whopping 940. There were no record cold overnight low temperatures set or tied during the same period. 

And the monthly records, which are far harder to break than daily milestones, are astounding. 

According to the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) in Asheville, North Carolina, February has seen 336 monthly record highs set or tied, along with 203 records set or tied for the warmest overnight minimum temperature. In comparison, there was not a single monthly cold temperature record set or tied through Feb. 23. 

http://mashable.com/2017/02/23/february-heat-records/#B2EpKqvuR5qJ

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NC_hailstorm

NC_hailstorm

Posted
Posted

If I was trying to forecast,here's the 5 things I'd observe (in order of importance)

1.Solar

2.ENSO

3.QBO

4.MJO

5.SSW

ENSO and QBO are close and can flip,but I'll lean ENSO slightly.Having favorable solar or ENSO still doesn't guarantee a good winter,the other 4 could be horrible and you still get a crap winter.On the other hand you can have alot of horrible like this year and still find a way to get brief winter weather.That's like beating a pair of pocket aces with a junk hand with only a handful of outs on the river to win with.Better to play the percentages though.

Anyways just a early look and next year still doesn't look favorable on solar or QBO unless we see a flip by December.ENSO looks better with a possible weak/mod El Nino but don't let it go strong.Way too early on MJO or SSW,have to observe that and track around mid/late November to see how its going.I'll also throw in volcanic activity and ozone levels but I think these have to be fairly strong and persistant much like SSW's.

Well just my opinion.

 

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NC_hailstorm

NC_hailstorm

Posted
Posted

Anyone noticed the NAO running neutral to slightly negative since mid April?AO too mostly as well.

Anyone been noticing the solar wind and EEP levels since then?Sharp drop off right about then.Research paper supports a far better chance for -NAO when it does.

Anyone notice the QBO flipped to easterly last month as well?

Well going by this,it could be meaning we're coming out of the declining phase and entering the minimum phase of this solar cycle but too early to say.Anyone been noticing the low heights/trof on the east coast the last 3 months?I have about 23'' of rain to prove it exists.

Fun to observe though.

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snowlover91

snowlover91

Posted
Posted
On 7/6/2017 at 8:40 PM, NC_hailstorm said:

Anyone noticed the NAO running neutral to slightly negative since mid April?AO too mostly as well.

Anyone been noticing the solar wind and EEP levels since then?Sharp drop off right about then.Research paper supports a far better chance for -NAO when it does.

Anyone notice the QBO flipped to easterly last month as well?

Well going by this,it could be meaning we're coming out of the declining phase and entering the minimum phase of this solar cycle but too early to say.Anyone been noticing the low heights/trof on the east coast the last 3 months?I have about 23'' of rain to prove it exists.

Fun to observe though.

I’ve noticed this and the anomalously cold air in Canada, and really the northern Hemisphere. Look at the D10 Euro forecast. 

IMG_0130.PNG

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