Jon Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Here's the CanSIPS, to be fair it's a horrible model....ranked pretty low of all seasonals as far as verification... if I recall correctly, someone can confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 6 minutes ago, Jon said: Here's the CanSIPS, to be fair it's a horrible model....ranked pretty low of all seasonals as far as verification... if I recall correctly, someone can confirm. I might be wrong but that looks to have a pretty stout negative NAO look. Either there is absolutely no cold at all or something is amiss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 JB on the CanSIPS, There is no sugar coating the implication of the Canadian model Our forecast is out and looks nothing like this, and if it is right, its as bad as it gets a rerun of 11-12 and even a bigger debacle for me at least I had not spent 6 months forecasting it to be cold. As ugly as it gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Frosty, I haven't seen JB's final winter forecast for here. Is it still for slightly below temps and slightly above snowfall? As for "as ugly as it gets", is that saying super warm or super cold? Sorry I'm not in the loop as much as in the past. Thanks, TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 3 hours ago, tarheelwx said: Frosty, I haven't seen JB's final winter forecast for here. Is it still for slightly below temps and slightly above snowfall? As for "as ugly as it gets", is that saying super warm or super cold? Sorry I'm not in the loop as much as in the past. Thanks, TW JB's wording leaves the interpretation open. I interpreted him saying the model forecast in question was "as ugly as it gets," which would refer to the predicted warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 JB's wording leaves the interpretation open. I interpreted him saying the model forecast in question was "as ugly as it gets," which would refer to the predicted warmth. At least to me he seems to be talking about the canSIPS with the "as ugly as it gets" comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 The last time Charlotte recorded a 4+ inch snow in December was in Dec 1973. During that same timespan, 4 such events have occurred in March (Mar '78, '80, '83, '09) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 I think my favorite snowstorms of all time have came in December. The Dec 18-19, 2009 mountain and foothill heavy snow brought the biggest snow in over a decade for most of WNC. The Christmas storm a year later was even better.. The models showed a big storm only to lose it days before the event.. We all know it came back and brought many of us a rare white Christmas and over 6 inches of snow for many in NC. This was following one of the biggest surprise snows in my life on December 12, 2010.. 3-4 inches of snow fell from a frontal band in the foothills and mountains of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 To bad the Euro doesn't go out to day 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 ^ Why do you want to see another cutter, Pack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: To bad the Euro doesn't go out to day 11. Look at the highs lined up from Alaska down into the USA. Looks a lot like the GFS has been spitting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: ^ Why do you want to see another cutter, Pack? More drought busting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 58 minutes ago, griteater said: The last time Charlotte recorded a 4+ inch snow in December was in Dec 1973. During that same timespan, 4 such events have occurred in March (Mar '78, '80, '83, '09) Hello all, It's December, I guess it's snow chasin time! From what I've read so far most think this year's going to be a snoozer (except Cohen and he don't count). I hope not, but nothing would surprise me at this point. One thing that keeps me positive is we had a raging above normal winter last year and we still managed a heck of a sleet storm in CLT. Probably again due to the +PNA and -EPO I'm guessing. So you never know. Above normal winters can always throw a nice storm at you once in a while. ^In regard to December Grit, I think this is just winter pattern recognition time. I've got really no hope in an actual snow event in CLT. Mountains and foothills probably a different story, but even below normal doesn't quite do it for Charlotte as you've noted from the annals of history. For this month I just hope a nice blocking pattern emerges that carries over to January and February where we get our real opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 EPS still looks darn cold day 7+ in the east/SE. Hinting at that potential day 11-13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 22 minutes ago, packbacker said: EPS still looks darn cold day 7+ in the east/SE. Hinting at that potential day 11-13. Euro Ens has been waffling back and forth with the extent of the cold. Today was a colder waffle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 2 hours ago, griteater said: The last time Charlotte recorded a 4+ inch snow in December was in Dec 1973. During that same timespan, 4 such events have occurred in March (Mar '78, '80, '83, '09) It always amazes how December is such a crappy month for winter weather despite it being the 2nd coldest month of the year. Meanwhile, March is usually much warmer than December, March has a much higher sun angle, and the ground temps are usually warmer in March. Is there not a correlation between cold temps and snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 39 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro Ens has been waffling back and forth with the extent of the cold. Today was a colder waffle A great look for us and Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 1 hour ago, griteater said: Euro Ens has been waffling back and forth with the extent of the cold. Today was a colder waffle EPS has high of 40F next Friday and Sat for our locales ...yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 1 hour ago, griteater said: Euro Ens has been waffling back and forth with the extent of the cold. Today was a colder waffle Beautiful map. That is a image of wintery mischief..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 41 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Beautiful map. That is a image of wintery mischief..... nothin' left to do but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 JB's wording leaves the interpretation open. I interpreted him saying the model forecast in question was "as ugly as it gets," which would refer to the predicted warmth. Yes, I interpreted it the same way if the model is right his forecast is toast!!! but he's not buying that model at the moment. His final update is out to his clients now, said it will be out to public next week!! I don't think there'll be a lot of changes to it from the hints? (I could be wrong though) Their model the pioneer model is as opposite to the Canadian as it could be!!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 1m1 minute agoState College, PA Hallmark Movies and Barney colors. The December to Remember if you like winter is here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Pretty sure nrgjeff has concerns the cold gets hung up out west. His comments were in the TN forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 1 minute ago, LithiaWx said: Pretty sure nrgjeff has concerns the cold gets hung up out west. His comments were in the TN forum. I'm sure something will go wrong, and we just cool off a little! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 22 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 1m1 minute agoState College, PA Hallmark Movies and Barney colors. The December to Remember if you like winter is here It's Christmas time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 38 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Pretty sure nrgjeff has concerns the cold gets hung up out west. His comments were in the TN forum. Well without even going over to look, I am concerned this is not our typical polar air source track for the S/E. I believe it will moderate some and or be delayed. However, could still be cold enough for some winterwx before Christmas. image cred @crankywxguy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 4 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: It always amazes how December is such a crappy month for winter weather despite it being the 2nd coldest month of the year. Meanwhile, March is usually much warmer than December, March has a much higher sun angle, and the ground temps are usually warmer in March. Is there not a correlation between cold temps and snow ? The mean storm track slowly slips south through fall and into winter, so Dec suffers from the climo storm track not being as far south as it is in Jan & Feb...but your point is valid, you would think Dec would offer more potential given the climo temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 33 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Pretty sure nrgjeff has concerns the cold gets hung up out west. His comments were in the TN forum. The 'foundation' for the cold is the strong Bering Sea ridge that reaches poleward. A better 'foundation' would be Gulf of Alaska / E Alaska / NW Canada ridging that reaches poleward. Push back from the subtropical ridging across the southern tier of the U.S. is lurking, but the modeling is keeping it at bay at the moment. The 12z Euro Ens and 18z GFS Ens both trended a little colder today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 20 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: Well without even going over to look, I am concerned this is not our typical polar air source track for the S/E. I believe it will moderate some and or be delayed. However, could still be cold enough for some winterwx before Christmas. image cred @crankywxguy Once Canada gets into the freezer it won't matter in my opinion. Snow pack should really increase a lot in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Euro Weeklies for weeks 3 and 4 go to a +EPO / Alaska low vortex pattern....mild/warm over most of the U.S. Basically, the CanSips look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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