packbacker Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 This could be fun. Complete block over the top with a building NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 A few members getting snow down our way. Not really buying anything with this pattern re-shuffle coming up but interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Looks like 8 members have some snow here. Not bad this far out. I'll take panel 4 and 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Looks like 8 members have some snow here. Not bad this far out. I'll take panel 4 and 9. ding ding ding.ill gladly take those but not starting until late pm on the 8th please lol. my wife would love to have some paid snow days from school...i just dont want to drive up 29 from danville to lynchburg in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 DT just tweeted this out...goes back to just how far south that lobe of the trop PV sags. Need that bearing strait ridge to get roided up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 If anything the 12z EPS looks like it could be potentially colder after this day 10 map..LOL. EPS went nuts with what DT talked about above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Last three 12z runs of Euro Ensemble have shown improvement toward a below normal temperature pattern. These maps are 5 day averages of 500mb Height Anomalies and 850mb Temperature Anomalies for Dec 7-12 from the last 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 1 hour ago, griteater said: Last three 12z runs of Euro Ensemble have shown improvement toward a below normal temperature pattern. These maps are 5 day averages of 500mb Height Anomalies and 850mb Temperature Anomalies for Dec 7-12 from the last 3 runs. Definitely perks your interest for mid month, but seems like we been talking about potential patterns day 10+ for a while now. This feels a little different then the previous ones (knock on wood). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 13 minutes ago, packbacker said: Definitely perks your interest for mid month, but seems like we been talking about potential patterns day 10+ for a while now. This feels a little different then the previous ones (knock on wood). We are just entering Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 20 minutes ago, packbacker said: Definitely perks your interest for mid month, but seems like we been talking about potential patterns day 10+ for a while now. This feels a little different then the previous ones (knock on wood). Seeing cold like that show up and trend nicely on the EPS is definitely different. Previously we were just trying to get the PAC sorted out, this time around we actually have deep cold entering Canada, and it wouldn't take much to send that south and east. The trends on the EPS are very telling and I would probably put money on that GIF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 19 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: We are just entering Dec. Doesn't matter what month it is...just saying we been talking about ensembles showing a favorable pattern in the day 10+ and they haven't exactly panned out. I know...fairly obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 10 minutes ago, Jon said: Seeing cold like that show up and trend nicely on the EPS is definitely different. Previously we were just trying to get the PAC sorted out, this time around we actually have deep cold entering Canada, and it wouldn't take much to send that south and east. The trends on the EPS are very telling and I would probably put money on that GIF. The PAC getting sorted out and what happens to the trop PV. Looks promising for something other then the warmth we are used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Well here it is, last CFSv2 run for the month of December. Decent from what we saw yesterday with mega ridge setting up over the east. Should be a wild month with brief warm ups only to be swallowed by the next cold front out of Canada, major models predicting several cold fronts and at least normal if not BN temps for the month overall. Major difference from last year. Last year's December forecast worked out pretty darn well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 It's the blocking that keeps the model swinging IMO. As a Western trough generally corresponds to Eastern ridge so, models having problems dealing with the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Dec run of the CanSIPS model looks horrible D/J/F. Torch. I'm not even going to bother posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Jon said: Dec run of the CanSIPS model looks horrible D/J/F. Torch. I'm not even going to bother posting Post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Jon said: Dec run of the CanSIPS model looks horrible D/J/F. Torch. I'm not even going to bother posting Why not? It's such a lovely day any way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Jon's right. SuperTorch on the always reliable CanSIPS. Entire U.S. is AN all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 17 minutes ago, Jon said: Dec run of the CanSIPS model looks horrible D/J/F. Torch. I'm not even going to bother posting Winter cancel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I don't even know why I bother paying attention to the long range forecasts. One day winter is supposed to be cold and snowy, the next day it's going to be a torch all winter. Enough is enough. Just let the weather work itself out and forget any forecast past 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I don't even know why I bother paying attention to the long range forecasts. One day winter is supposed to be cold and snowy, the next day it's going to be a torch all winter. Enough is enough. Just let the weather work itself out and forget any forecast past 7 days. That's what I'm saying. We already know no long range model is going to just lock on and stay the same at this point. Look what we have today. Flooding rains and tornadoes and we had extreme drought conditions for months before this. This volatile pattern could easily produce something big with one push of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 1 minute ago, GaStorm said: That's what I'm saying. We already know no long range model is going to just lock on and stay the same at this point. Look what we have today. Flooding rains and tornadoes and we had extreme drought conditions for months before this. This volatile pattern could easily produce something big with one push of cold air. Yeah i'm not even going to worry about the long range forecast, even if it says this will be the warmest winter of all time. I have no faith in the long range. Lets just take it one week at a time. No need to worry about something over a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 56 minutes ago, Jon said: Dec run of the CanSIPS model looks horrible D/J/F. Torch. I'm not even going to bother posting Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 1 hour ago, Jon said: Dec run of the CanSIPS model looks horrible D/J/F. Torch. I'm not even going to bother posting Until the Brazillian caves and shows torch, I'm still all in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: It's the blocking that keeps the model swinging IMO. As a Western trough generally corresponds to Eastern ridge so, models having problems dealing with the blocking. Latest Euro Ens trends are keeping the poleward Aleutian ridging in tact pretty well, but there is some weakening of the Iceland based ridging. Basically we are looking at some ups and downs and near normal temperatures I'd say for Dec 1-15. Nothing in the pipeline denoting a locked in cold or warm pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Latest Euro Ens trends are keeping the poleward Aleutian ridging in tact pretty well, but there is some weakening of the Iceland based ridging. Basically we are looking at some ups and downs and near normal temperatures I'd say for Dec 1-15. Nothing in the pipeline denoting a locked in cold or warm pattern. That was my take, also. Utterly seasonable, which is a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: That was my take, also. Utterly seasonable, which is a win. I don't see how seasonable is a win. Maybe it's a win if you're in the northeast or midwest, but seasonable won't cut it around here. Not in GA anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 After reading the past many posts, starting with Jon's CanSIPS', it seems (at least to me) that for a couple of years or more we've been hanging on to and cheering long range models showing "something great coming" that, with a great degree of consistency, simply have not panned out. So - one of 2 things will have to occur - 1) The LR torch model runs we're seeing this year are as reliable as the prior years' "cold and snowy eventually" ones, and as with the past the current torch models will be 95% wrong (1) (history repeats?), or 2) We finally have models that have "learned" and we now can take solace in their reliability. At least thinking this keeps my model anxiety level low. Hope it helps someone else, as well (1) Number pulled out of the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Next 10 days the trop PV going through some changes...hopefully the height rises in the SW on the GFS/CMC ensembles are correct in the day 10+. Though, I am sure will have to do deal with that pesky SE ridge at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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