packbacker Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 Just now, Met1985 said: Who is Joe D? One of the weatherbell met's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: One of the weatherbell met's. Oh ok. Well I would not mind a normal freaking winter around here really. The past couple have not even been close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Oh ok. Well I would not mind a normal freaking winter around here really. The past couple have not even been close. FWIW his Pioneer model nailed 13/14 and 14/15, for the most part. It busted last winter, it had the SE BN but after the Dec bake sale it didn't have a chance to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 Just now, packbacker said: FWIW his Pioneer model nailed 13/14 and 14/15, for the most part. It busted last winter, it had the SE BN but after the Dec bake sale it didn't have a chance to verify. Interesting. Yeah I believe several busted last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 29 minutes ago, packbacker said: FWIW his Pioneer model nailed 13/14 and 14/15, for the most part. It busted last winter, it had the SE BN but after the Dec bake sale it didn't have a chance to verify. Going to have a lot of work to do to even get in the ballpark of being on the right track for 16/17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Going to have a lot of work to do to even get in the ballpark of being on the right track for 16/17. Yep...if you believe the GEFS and EPS the next few days we roast but after that day 5+ we are largely BN. That's for a good part of the conus. Odds favor a AN Feb and early start to spring so every week we waste in Dec sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 ^ Hope that progression holds, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 Personally I'm not so sure we have an AN February. This is a very weak Nina and it will be decaying going into spring. I believe we get a dose of AN, N, and BN through the whole season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 54 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yep...if you believe the GEFS and EPS the next few days we roast but after that day 5+ we are largely BN. That's for a good part of the conus. Odds favor a AN Feb and early start to spring so every week we waste in Dec sucks. I think optimism is warranted for the time being. I've said this before but snowfall south of 40n is largely a byproduct of embedded in chaos regardless of patterns. Early winter absolutely requires sig BN temps. Unless guidance is totally wrong, a significant NA cold outbreak seems pretty likely. Is it fleeting or something that takes over for a time and reloads? I'm thinking it's a reload type of pattern in general. Whether that includes our yards or not is tricky but where we seem to be heading is a heck of a lot better than many recent early Decembers. We've gone from being concerned about the pac flooding NA with endless maritime air to worrying about whether cross polar flow and arctic air can make it this far east in just a couple weeks. Lol. I've been amused with how many folks were treating the Nov pattern as a harbinger of winter. Definitive calls aplenty and it's silly. Dec height and pressure patterns are far more important. I really like what I see. Everybody should like what is being advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I think optimism is warranted for the time being. I've said this before but snowfall south of 40n is largely a byproduct of embedded in chaos regardless of patterns. Early winter absolutely requires sig BN temps. Unless guidance is totally wrong, a significant NA cold outbreak seems pretty likely. Is it fleeting or something that takes over for a time and reloads? I'm thinking it's a reload type of pattern in general. Whether that includes our yards or not is tricky but where we seem to be heading is a heck of a lot better than many recent early Decembers. We've gone from being concerned about the pac flooding NA with endless maritime air to worrying about whether cross polar flow and arctic air can make it this far east in just a couple weeks. Lol. I've been amused with how many folks were treating the Nov pattern as a harbinger of winter. Definitive calls aplenty and it's silly. Dec height and pressure patterns are far more important. I really like what I see. Everybody should like what is being advertised. Yep, agree Bob. If you want a BN December you have to like recent trends. I am optimistic for some BN weather and really continued BN weather. It's been BN here the past 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I think optimism is warranted for the time being. I've said this before but snowfall south of 40n is largely a byproduct of embedded in chaos regardless of patterns. Early winter absolutely requires sig BN temps. Unless guidance is totally wrong, a significant NA cold outbreak seems pretty likely. Is it fleeting or something that takes over for a time and reloads? I'm thinking it's a reload type of pattern in general. Whether that includes our yards or not is tricky but where we seem to be heading is a heck of a lot better than many recent early Decembers. We've gone from being concerned about the pac flooding NA with endless maritime air to worrying about whether cross polar flow and arctic air can make it this far east in just a couple weeks. Lol. I've been amused with how many folks were treating the Nov pattern as a harbinger of winter. Definitive calls aplenty and it's silly. Dec height and pressure patterns are far more important. I really like what I see. Everybody should like what is being advertised. Great post Bob. The pattern is definitely changing especially bringing in much needed rainfall for several areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 That was a very interesting daily summary video from Joe D'Aleo on Weatherbell yesterday talking about the seasonal forecasts based on the anti-logs and ocean temp profiles. In particular, it shows their in-house Pioneer model. It was great to hear it from a different perspective than Mr. Bastardi, who I really like, but always seems to be looking for a fight. All science based, no hype on this one. Will it be right? Time will tell, but a good video nonetheless. Watch it fast before the video updates to today's daily summary: Daily Summary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 If nothing else the models agree on some serious conus cold coming day 7+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 Wonder what would happen if the trop PV split over the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 14 minutes ago, packbacker said: Wonder what would happen if the trop PV split over the pole. Interesting.... Looks like a cold NE set-up. Could get a CAD event out of that type of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 2 hours ago, packbacker said: Wonder what would happen if the trop PV split over the pole. I'm becoming interested in the mean ridge showing up pushing higher heights from europe>iceland>GL. It's really early for the trop pv to get displaced south of hudson but you have to wonder if the squeeze play is on from the 2 ridges. 2013-14 had the epo/scand ridge bridge going for a long time. What if a -epo/-ao/-nao bridge develops some time in Dec? That would support the lower heights further east in NE Canada instead of centered over and south of HB like 13-14. Last weekly run showed this type of evolution but didn't really establish until very late in the run. I'm interested to see how tonight's weeklies roll the eps 0z d15 pattern forward. The spike in the AO is actually helping the cold NA pattern to establish. It's a bit ironic when a +AO is a good thing...lol. The burning question is will higher heights build over the top of the trop PV lobe that's moving in. It's anyone's guess really but if it happens it would make complete sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 12z GFS looked seasonal outside of the next two days and then below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I'm becoming interested in the mean ridge showing up pushing higher heights from europe>iceland>GL. It's really early for the trop pv to get displaced south of hudson but you have to wonder if the squeeze play is on from the 2 ridges. 2013-14 had the epo/scand ridge bridge going for a long time. What if a -epo/-ao/-nao bridge develops some time in Dec? That would support the lower heights further east in NE Canada instead of centered over and south of HB like 13-14. Last weekly run showed this type of evolution but didn't really establish until very late in the run. I'm interested to see how tonight's weeklies roll the eps 0z d15 pattern forward. The spike in the AO is actually helping the cold NA pattern to establish. It's a bit ironic when a +AO is a good thing...lol. The burning question is will higher heights build over the top of the trop PV lobe that's moving in. It's anyone's guess really but if it happens it would make complete sense. Bob that's interesting you say that about the AO. Pack and I where discussing that yesterday about how the plus AO would actually act as a reset of sorts so the PV would be at the top instead of directly on Siberia. I do believe we need a positive AO regime to take place to help us down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Bummer the CFS backed off it's call for a BN Dec in the east. The CFS is pretty good when looking at it's last few runs for the upcoming month. If this comes about it would be a bad omen for the rest of the winter. Compare it with the composites of our crappy nina's and it matches up well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 I have been through the iteration of checking the CFS previous forecast and it has a bust here or there but for the most part has done good. Just a couple of examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Getting warmer and warmer, Pack. Tomorrow's run should be a barn burner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 The 0z GFS continues to look atrocious for a winter pattern setting in anytime soon. The 6z is somewhat better, but it's way out in fantasy land, where you frequently see troughing in the east. The indexes continue to suck. Any hint of big blocking is gone. AO? Positive. NAO? Neutral/negative/spread, at best. PNA? Lol. We got what we got for a long time, I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The 0z GFS continues to look atrocious for a winter pattern setting in anytime soon. The 6z is somewhat better, but it's way out in fantasy land, where you frequently see troughing in the east. The indexes continue to suck. Any hint of big blocking is gone. AO? Positive. NAO? Neutral/negative/spread, at best. PNA? Lol. We got what we got for a long time, I'm afraid. LOL...the EPS and GEFS have some subtle differences in the day 10+. The GEFS is insistent on a SER...both have the Bearing Strait ridge and a 50/50. Day 10 there appears to be a chance at an event for the central plains and Oh-V and then after that do we go back to AN or do we stay BN and hope that the ridging in Davis Strait get stronger (w-NAO) so that something can slip far enough south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 I went back and looked at the winters that had a December Bearing Strait ridge with some ridging into southern Greenland...which is what the GEFS/EPS agree on to start December...small sample size but the winter composite was impressive. There were a few other winters that had the bearing strait ridge but lacked the low heights off east of Newfoundland (2008/09, 13/14). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 23 minutes ago, packbacker said: LOL...the EPS and GEFS have some subtle differences in the day 10+. The GEFS is insistent on a SER...both have the Bearing Strait ridge and a 50/50. Day 10 there appears to be a chance at an event for the central plains and Oh-V and then after that do we go back to AN or do we stay BN and hope that the ridging in Davis Strait get stronger (w-NAO) so that something can slip far enough south. I'm gonna play Shetley for a minute, but the heart of the cold still seems to be not on our side of the world!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 40 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I'm gonna play Shetley for a minute, but the heart of the cold still seems to be not on our side of the world!? I don't think we want that cold. That cold over there is way to cold for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: The 0z GFS continues to look atrocious for a winter pattern setting in anytime soon. The 6z is somewhat better, but it's way out in fantasy land, where you frequently see troughing in the east. The indexes continue to suck. Any hint of big blocking is gone. AO? Positive. NAO? Neutral/negative/spread, at best. PNA? Lol. We got what we got for a long time, I'm afraid. Shoot, CR, it always gets cold in winter...at least a day or two...it's the moisture you ought to be worrying about, lol. 23 and bone dry, is still bone dry I've gotten my first rain in over 70 days last night...the last time it rained it was over 3 inches, I'm up to 2 now...so what happens if it doesn't rain for another 71 days? Lots of dry cold...if it gets cold. Please use your moisture tractor beam to get us into the solid wet pattern, and we can take our chances with the cold. It's winter, it always gets cold,..but there is no guarantee of rain.... another two month dry spell in the heart of it would suck at the extreme of suckitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Since Met winter starts officially in 2 days. Allow me to throw the first of many face slaps that annually come the SE way each D,J,F as we all pursue the ellusive snow/winter weather we all crave so much: Enjoy and your welcome! Saudi Arabia snowfall turns desert sands powdery white (PHOTOS, VIDEOS) Published time: 29 Nov, 2016 04:03Edited time: 29 Nov, 2016 04:15 Get short URL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 4 hours ago, packbacker said: LOL...the EPS and GEFS have some subtle differences in the day 10+. The GEFS is insistent on a SER...both have the Bearing Strait ridge and a 50/50. Day 10 there appears to be a chance at an event for the central plains and Oh-V and then after that do we go back to AN or do we stay BN and hope that the ridging in Davis Strait get stronger (w-NAO) so that something can slip far enough south. It looks like the 12z GFS and Canadian Ensembles both made a slight move toward the cooler Euro Ensemble in the extended range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 32 minutes ago, griteater said: It looks like the 12z GFS and Canadian Ensembles both made a slight move toward the cooler Euro Ensemble in the extended range Yep, not bad. Will be interesting to see how far south that lobe of the trop PV drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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