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Winter 2016-17 discussion


lookingnorth

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Here's the Monthly 18z run from yesterday that I posted above
d41079d409f054aa8ef1d8290f19fa81.png

Also the CFSv2 evolution that most are used to seeing. As I expected, with the amount of cold that was displayed the previous run its overwhelming the positive anomalies on the east. 5730b7b31b0e1504da08d17f83200a67.gif

We've all seen this song and dance before though with the CFSv2. Let's just hope it doesn't back off, the last frame of the month (last run) of the CFSv2 has verified for Dec in the past. Not sure how it's doing now someone will have to fact check how it handled oct and nov.

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On ‎11‎/‎19‎/‎2016 at 10:14 AM, Met1985 said:
32 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Good stuff! Hopefully this general idea comes to fruition. Mid December is a great time for cold, with low sun angle and short days. 

Does anyone have a snow cover map of Canada? Even with a good H5 setup, we need good Canadian snow cover to refrigerate the airmass even more. 

It looks like the negative NAO will be short lived. The ao is a toss up. It could go either way really, back to positive or staying negative.

I mean, it still hasn't went negative yet.

snowcover.gif

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1 hour ago, rjtysinger said:

No factual science behind what I'm going to say and it's not trolling just what I have seen but in my lifetime it seems that winters following hurricanes/tropical storms that impacted our area we receive above average snowfall.  Any correlation to that?

What were the years you had in mind with the tropical storm hits?

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Just taking the two storms ('Canes) that really impacted the SE this year and comparing them to a couple very similar storms in the past ( Cleo 1964 - Matthew this year; Kate 1985  - Hermine this year) one could come up with this (though I do not suggest this is a certainty, it is at least interesting):

 

 

 

cd174.64.77.18.331.8.58.49.prcp.png

cd174.64.77.18.331.8.59.52.prcp.png

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7 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Models agree on the trop PV setting up shop right over the pole.....hopefully a piece heads towards SE Canada/Lakes day 10+ while holding onto the -EPO.  

IMG_3195.PNG

This actually has a better look than with a negative AO but the PV on the other side  of the world in Siberia. Hopefully this is like a reload and then when it goes negative again it will dive down into Canada instead of the other side. 

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15 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

This actually has a better look than with a negative AO but the PV on the other side  of the world in Siberia. Hopefully this is like a reload and then when it goes negative again it will dive down into Canada instead of the other side. 

Agree...losing the blocking was a necessary evil to allow it to head on over.  Wouldn't mind if it sagged just a little further south.  

Of course...day 10+ ensembles.

 

IMG_3197.PNG

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19 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Agree...losing the blocking was a necessary evil to allow it to head on over.  Wouldn't mind if it sagged just a little further south.  

Of course...day 10+ ensembles.

 

IMG_3197.PNG

Yeah I completely agree. It's a funny way of looking at it but we do need to lose the blocking because obviously it was not helping with the cold centered of Siberia since October. We need high pressure to set in over Siberia instead dead over the pole. Of course this is almost thinking backwards but I think in the long run it will lead to our advantage instead of it being a disadvantage. Hopefully this will reset the PV to come over our part of the world.

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GEFS and EPS start to diverge day 11-12.  Both show a signal for something day 12 or so for the east.  Euro ejects a piece of energy from the pac low and then retrogrades the rest of it.  Looks like the GEFS does too but then slides the rest of the trough east.  Both bias's could be at play but which one is correct?  Both show a much colder pattern for the midwest/east and a more typical Nina pattern.

And no, I am not calling for a east coast winter storm day 10+...but if either of these patterns evolve would think something in the TN/OH-V to MA to NE would be in play.

Screen Shot 2016-11-27 at 8.01.12 PM.png

Screen Shot 2016-11-27 at 8.01.28 PM.png

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