griteater Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 40 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Here is DT's extensive Winter Forecast. The short version is 24 pages and the long version is 34. Looks to have the best winter weather chances the latter half of December and January before an early spring. DT's Winter Forecast DT says..."it is our view that doing the science and going through the steps is as important as coming up with the right answer. A lot of people don't understand this as the emphasis in our culture is on getting the right answer. For example, if I forecast the winter pattern based upon the number of socks in my dresser drawer, and the forecast turns out to be correct, it doesn't mean my technique was scientifically based and/or it can be used in the future." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 We should get used to seeing trends like this by now...warmth has been winning for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 The trop PV is a real problem for atleast the next couple of weeks, but the GEFS/GEPS does show it more elongated day 15. Would be more +NAO look but potentially colder in the east with a -EPO/-AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Riskpulse had one of the better winter outlooks I saw last year. This years' version is out...https://riskpulse.com/blog/2016-2017-winter-weather-outlook/?utm_campaign=2016-17 Winter Weather Outlook&utm_content=42386485&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter "While this past summer and previous winter broke records for warmth, we do not expect the winter of 2016 – 2017 to repeat the pattern. Our current research suggests this winter will begin on the warm side across the central and eastern U.S., but will become much more variable during the core winter months of January and February. The variability is a feature for both temperature and precipitation. In other words, the theme of this winter is heightened temperature variability. Additionally, the general precipitation themes this winter will be for drier conditions south and wetter conditions north." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Nice aleutian ridge late in the GEFS. Be nice if the new EPS agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Serious NAO block on the new Euro day 10. Get some stronger ridging into AK/aleutians like the GEFS day 10+ could get some serious cold dumped into the heart of the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Just now, NWNC2015 said: why are we posting 384 hour maps Why do you even post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 11 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: why are we posting 384 hour maps At 6 hours, you can clearly see the classic Autumnal M pattern, entrenched over North America. This pattern, common in Autumn months, usually prevents the penetration of cold and snow deep into the SE US. Unfortunately, it seems locked in for at least the next 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Is this the new euro which is running starting a the 12z run today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: At 6 hours, you can clearly see the classic Autumnal M pattern, entrenched over North America. This pattern, common in Autumn months, usually prevents the penetration of cold and snow deep into the SE US. Unfortunately, it seems locked in for at least the next 24-36 hours. Yea it will a take a strong cutter with heavy rain here before some true arctic air can swoop in. I think it will happen in December but we will have to wait until the tail end of the cold air abating to see what moisture we can get to work with for any frozen mischief prior to Christmas outside of the mountains. Looks messy but doable. More on this after Thanksgiving...but I believe will soon see a potential threat emerge before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 8 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Is this the new euro which is running starting a the 12z run today? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 22 minutes ago, packbacker said: Why do you even post. Because we are a weird bunch Pack - if you have access to AmWx Models from Allan, post the West Based bar graph from the Euro if you get a chance....should be rather negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 41 minutes ago, packbacker said: Nice aleutian ridge late in the GEFS. Be nice if the new EPS agrees. Pretty much agrees. Some solid cold air masses should be dropping out of Canada during the first half of Dec if the pattern progresses like that. The waiting game on the western trough will have folks on edge though. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 10 minutes ago, griteater said: Yes Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 34 minutes ago, packbacker said: Why do you even post. Lookie here, wilksbro posted about the end of the GFS run in the other thread lol 51 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: I like end of the GFS run...-11 degrees in the mid west and getting colder. More times than not, it will rain itself out in the Carolinas before any super cold dry outbreak can slide on east. Maybe we can squeeze out two significant precip events before a few brutal days of cold first half of December. Very believable run to me because of climo resemblance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 16 minutes ago, griteater said: Because we are a weird bunch Pack - if you have access to AmWx Models from Allan, post the West Based bar graph from the Euro if you get a chance....should be rather negative Here is the GFS ENS West NAO followed by the Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Thanks CR, would be nice if we were blocking actual cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 20 minutes ago, griteater said: Because we are a weird bunch Understatement of the century ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Pretty much agrees. Some solid cold air masses should be dropping out of Canada during the first half of Dec if the pattern progresses like that. The waiting game on the western trough will have folks on edge though. lol Well, that will depend on the strength of the high pressure that drops down. We would like to see 1044+mb highs in Montana to push a front to the east coast, but that don't typically occur until later in the season. I don't mind the "west dump" at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 4 minutes ago, griteater said: Thanks CR, would be nice if we were blocking actual cold air Yeah, agreed. The block is really, really nice. Unfortunately, there's this weird feature in the west (it's name is escaping me right now!!) that instigates a nice, warm southwesterly flow into the southeast, producing toasty conditions, with occasional clouds and sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah, agreed. The block is really, really nice. Unfortunately, there's this weird feature in the west (it's name is escaping me right now!!) that instigates a nice, warm southwesterly flow into the southeast, producing toasty conditions, with occasional clouds and sprinkles. Here's the Day 10-15 average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 ^^ Nice. One of the strongest blocking signals we've seen in a long time (in met Winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 It's not a terrible look, IMO. Looks like normal November weather to me. We need a southwest west/southwest flow to bring the moisture. With the blocking being modeled it's not like we (TN/NC) couldn't squeeze out something wintry (even if it was on the backside of a marginal event) from mid December on. As that trough comes east it would have to slide under the blocking shown which would leave someone just north of us with a shot for some snow. At the very least it's a COMPLETELY different look than we have seen for the last couple of months and a real opportunity to put some water on these fires that are torching both of our areas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: ^^ Nice. One of the strongest blocking signals we've seen in a long time (in met Winter). Cold is still on the wrong side of the world! That looks like the map JB has been posting since 1st of November, but never happens!? Need to get this pattern rollin, like doo doo brown! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 CFS moving towards colder weather for Dec...just not for the E/SE and the lovely SER. Plains/MW would love this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 Siberian Snow Theory Points to an Early and Cold Winter in U.S. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-23/siberian-snow-theory-points-to-an-early-and-cold-winter-in-u-s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 4 hours ago, packbacker said: CFS moving towards colder weather for Dec...just not for the E/SE and the lovely SER. Plains/MW would love this. I expect it to bleed a bit more east, that's impressive cold and it's not going to stop in the plains...heat over the EC is overdone, have to wait until the last day of the month runs 7 days away for your best predicitor with the CFSv2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 Winter Outlook 2016-17 for Southeast Lower Michigan https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2016/11/will-la-nina-really-be-important-factor.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 Be nice if the GEFS/EPS day 10+ fantasy runs eventually verify. The 12z EPS run would be very cold for large parts of the conus and with a block.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 Now this is a cold run of the CFSv2... Dec 3rd-23rd Of course it's the CFSv2 multi-day run, so it will change...but nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.