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Winter 2016-17 discussion


lookingnorth

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It's usually a good idea to disregard the CPC forecast.  That said, the persistent warm and dry pattern that has been in place for much of the year is going to be a stubborn mule to kick down the road.

On the good Atlantic/bad Pacific idea, you better hope that the -NAO is in game shape and comes ready to throw it down.  Because as bad as the Pacific is, we're gonna need every ounce of muscle the NAO has.  Otherwise, congrats TN and mid-Atlantic...assuming we get a long-duration-NAO at all.

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42 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

As far as I recall, 95-96 was a crappy winter other than that big cold spell in February where we had a high in the teens.

Thanks for the info Grit!

Now, SIC, Carrolltons crap, is usually everybody elses treasure! It was my first winter in GSP, and it was lame until about 1st ofJanuary! Then I think we had 3 or 4 events in about as many weeks and there was some single digit lows in there also! Good times

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3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

It's usually a good idea to disregard the CPC forecast.  That said, the persistent warm and dry pattern that has been in place for much of the year is going to be a stubborn mule to kick down the road.

On the good Atlantic/bad Pacific idea, you better hope that the -NAO is in game shape and comes ready to throw it down.  Because as bad as the Pacific is, we're gonna need every ounce of muscle the NAO has.  Otherwise, congrats TN and mid-Atlantic...assuming we get a long-duration-NAO at all.

Exactly .  The Pacific is a giant to be delt with. I think we go towards some cooling but keep a crappy pattern out west. I mean look at the LR Gfs. It absolutely tanks the PNA. Huge trough in the west and a bit of a trough in the NE and some ridging in the SE. Yes this is the LR gfs but I could see that happening . 

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1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Exactly .  The Pacific is a giant to be delt with. I think we go towards some cooling but keep a crappy pattern out west. I mean look at the LR Gfs. It absolutely tanks the PNA. Huge trough in the west and a bit of a trough in the NE and some ridging in the SE. Yes this is the LR gfs but I could see that happening . 

Yeah, if we have to start looking forward to clippers to get our snow, that won't end well for most!

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16 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

It's usually a good idea to disregard the CPC forecast.  That said, the persistent warm and dry pattern that has been in place for much of the year is going to be a stubborn mule to kick down the road.

On the good Atlantic/bad Pacific idea, you better hope that the -NAO is in game shape and comes ready to throw it down.  Because as bad as the Pacific is, we're gonna need every ounce of muscle the NAO has.  Otherwise, congrats TN and mid-Atlantic...assuming we get a long-duration-NAO at all.

What tends to happen in a -NAO / +PNA set-up is Miller B's and back-door cold fronts that bring SN to IP/ZR in the CAD areas and mostly snow in the Mid Atlantic states. That's what I remember most about the winter of 95/96. We had "mixed bag" events...... And yes, I will take a poor Pacific over a poor Atlantic every time here. The mountains don't get in on those type of damming events. So, they fair better with a good Pacific when it comes to winter precip.

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Euro Weeklies Summary

-Pacific low gets broken down Dec 3-4, sets the stage for a trough on the WC...but...

-Trough transfers to central US Dec 7-8, +PNA 

-By Dec 12, trough on east coast and it stays this way more or less through Jan 2

-Below average 850's throughout the entire run for the east coast after first week of December.

 

The last half of Dec looks good...it will take a while for it to get all sorted out and for us to get into a pattern conducive of wintry weather, but the weeklies are improving with each run and I highly, highly doubt the pacific will suck the entire month of December. Signs of a pattern change within the next month has been showing up for a while now, but the weeklies should put some at ease. 

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2 hours ago, Jon said:

Euro Weeklies Summary

-Pacific low gets broken down Dec 3-4, sets the stage for a trough on the WC...but...

-Trough transfers to central US Dec 7-8, +PNA 

-By Dec 12, trough on east coast and it stays this way more or less through Jan 2

-Below average 850's throughout the entire run for the east coast after first week of December.

 

The last half of Dec looks good...it will take a while for it to get all sorted out and for us to get into a pattern conducive of wintry weather, but the weeklies are improving with each run and I highly, highly doubt the pacific will suck the entire month of December. Signs of a pattern change within the next month has been showing up for a while now, but the weeklies should put some at ease. 

Thanks Jon. Is that from today ? 

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2 hours ago, Jon said:

Euro Weeklies Summary

-Pacific low gets broken down Dec 3-4, sets the stage for a trough on the WC...but...

-Trough transfers to central US Dec 7-8, +PNA 

-By Dec 12, trough on east coast and it stays this way more or less through Jan 2

-Below average 850's throughout the entire run for the east coast after first week of December.

 

The last half of Dec looks good...it will take a while for it to get all sorted out and for us to get into a pattern conducive of wintry weather, but the weeklies are improving with each run and I highly, highly doubt the pacific will suck the entire month of December. Signs of a pattern change within the next month has been showing up for a while now, but the weeklies should put some at ease. 

How well have weeklies been verifying? I know the monthly (seasonal?) model runs have utterly failed, and don't have a good history over the past few winters, but I haven't seen anything about how accurate the weeklies are.

I know these pattern changes can be frustrating when they are drawn out a few weeks longer than first shown, but I'm just glad we're going through this now instead of a month later, like we did last year. I do believe that this pattern change will happen, and that the Pacific pattern will improve eventually. A big part of this will likely be the PDO; over the last couple of months, the +PDO we've seen dominate the North Pacific pattern seemed to disappear. Yet, the PDO has made an incredible comeback over the past few weeks: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.html. The PDO and PNA often fall into the same phase, so I anticipate that this comeback will help drive a west coast ridge as we progress into the future.

The timeline the weeklies show may work out, and if so I think it would be a very nice pattern. The movement of the trough may not be so immediate, though. I wouldn't worry if the pattern gets delayed a little bit more, as it will likely work out. Not to mention climatologically speaking, this delay (even if small) probably puts the most favorable of conditions in a more favorable time frame for snowfall.

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Just now, griteater said:


Did you get your question answered? If no, what do you mean by parameters?

Lol no. Well we have had a positive PNA since about the middle of October to really currently but the pattern has not shown what we would think of as a positive PNA. We have had some good periods but we have also had  systems crashing into the NW. We have had record warmth in this plus Pna regime also. So how do they measure the PNA?

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