Daniel Boone Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 ahh yes... those 60's winters! just mentioned that couple days ago on twitter. you didn't have to have a favorable pac then. alot of folks think its virtually impossible to get cold in se with just -nao. This winters all 83-84 or 98-99 all over again to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 So basically the CPC is saying the pattern we've had for months is not going to change until at least next spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 cpc all nina climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Just now, Daniel Boone said: cpc all nino climo nino or nina ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 That isn't really the winter outlook entirely though, because it doesn't include December. Hopefully December will save us this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 2 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: nino or nina ? corrected. they weigh enso above all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 That CPC outlook has to be based on an average of all years with a Nina. Pretty sure that is how they came up with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 yeah, clearly nina climo composite. they have a bad track record. looking back over the past 15 years they missed every cold winter except maybe 1; 2009-10. i think they went cold or ec then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 It's usually a good idea to disregard the CPC forecast. That said, the persistent warm and dry pattern that has been in place for much of the year is going to be a stubborn mule to kick down the road. On the good Atlantic/bad Pacific idea, you better hope that the -NAO is in game shape and comes ready to throw it down. Because as bad as the Pacific is, we're gonna need every ounce of muscle the NAO has. Otherwise, congrats TN and mid-Atlantic...assuming we get a long-duration-NAO at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 42 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: As far as I recall, 95-96 was a crappy winter other than that big cold spell in February where we had a high in the teens. Thanks for the info Grit! Now, SIC, Carrolltons crap, is usually everybody elses treasure! It was my first winter in GSP, and it was lame until about 1st ofJanuary! Then I think we had 3 or 4 events in about as many weeks and there was some single digit lows in there also! Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It's usually a good idea to disregard the CPC forecast. That said, the persistent warm and dry pattern that has been in place for much of the year is going to be a stubborn mule to kick down the road. On the good Atlantic/bad Pacific idea, you better hope that the -NAO is in game shape and comes ready to throw it down. Because as bad as the Pacific is, we're gonna need every ounce of muscle the NAO has. Otherwise, congrats TN and mid-Atlantic...assuming we get a long-duration-NAO at all. Exactly . The Pacific is a giant to be delt with. I think we go towards some cooling but keep a crappy pattern out west. I mean look at the LR Gfs. It absolutely tanks the PNA. Huge trough in the west and a bit of a trough in the NE and some ridging in the SE. Yes this is the LR gfs but I could see that happening . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Exactly . The Pacific is a giant to be delt with. I think we go towards some cooling but keep a crappy pattern out west. I mean look at the LR Gfs. It absolutely tanks the PNA. Huge trough in the west and a bit of a trough in the NE and some ridging in the SE. Yes this is the LR gfs but I could see that happening . Yeah, if we have to start looking forward to clippers to get our snow, that won't end well for most! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, if we have to start looking forward to clippers to get our snow, that won't end well for most! Not for anyone outside the mountains . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 16 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It's usually a good idea to disregard the CPC forecast. That said, the persistent warm and dry pattern that has been in place for much of the year is going to be a stubborn mule to kick down the road. On the good Atlantic/bad Pacific idea, you better hope that the -NAO is in game shape and comes ready to throw it down. Because as bad as the Pacific is, we're gonna need every ounce of muscle the NAO has. Otherwise, congrats TN and mid-Atlantic...assuming we get a long-duration-NAO at all. What tends to happen in a -NAO / +PNA set-up is Miller B's and back-door cold fronts that bring SN to IP/ZR in the CAD areas and mostly snow in the Mid Atlantic states. That's what I remember most about the winter of 95/96. We had "mixed bag" events...... And yes, I will take a poor Pacific over a poor Atlantic every time here. The mountains don't get in on those type of damming events. So, they fair better with a good Pacific when it comes to winter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 It's not like the Pacific is a raging -PNA. It is neutral right now and I believe it will trend positive as we head into December. Relax folks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Here's rootin' for ya'all a bit north of here. Just someone please say a prayer something changes and we actually get 6 - 8 weeks of winter down here (not unheard of at all - but not heard of with what I'm seeing right now (though I took my contacts out)). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 What are the parameters for the PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Euro Weeklies Summary -Pacific low gets broken down Dec 3-4, sets the stage for a trough on the WC...but... -Trough transfers to central US Dec 7-8, +PNA -By Dec 12, trough on east coast and it stays this way more or less through Jan 2 -Below average 850's throughout the entire run for the east coast after first week of December. The last half of Dec looks good...it will take a while for it to get all sorted out and for us to get into a pattern conducive of wintry weather, but the weeklies are improving with each run and I highly, highly doubt the pacific will suck the entire month of December. Signs of a pattern change within the next month has been showing up for a while now, but the weeklies should put some at ease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Look at some of the cfsv2 maps through January JB put on FB!! as CR would say, it's pimpalicios and mucho, mucho Bueno!!! Looks like an El Niño storm track, with big snow over from N TX- Carolinas!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 18 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Look at some of the cfsv2 maps through January JB put on FB!! as CR would say, it's pimpalicios and mucho, mucho Bueno!!! Looks like an El Niño storm track, with big snow over from N TX- Carolinas!! Some being operative ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 18z gfs looking better for upslope snow sat/sat night. maybe a few inches seky, swva, netn, nwnc above 2000 ft seky, swva, above 2500 netn, nwnc. maybe up to 2 below that . models tend to under forecast lake effect. if the nw flow can be sustained long enough is the main concern, i.m.o.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 would be nice if robert(wxsouth) was still around. miss his input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Our local nbc team, just released their winter outlook and going " typical Nina " on everybody ! Going warm and dry! Great job guys! They must work at NOAA on the side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 9 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: would be nice if robert(wxsouth) was still around. miss his input. Hurricane Matthew, Mega drought and wildfires, weather really picked up in his backyard when he left. Unfortunate would have pulled in a lot of money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Well I guess it kinda makes sense that they are saying it will be dry this winter. I mean we are in an epic drought so it seems pretty plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Look at some of the cfsv2 maps through January JB put on FB!! as CR would say, it's pimpalicios and mucho, mucho Bueno!!! Looks like an El Niño storm track, with big snow over from N TX- Carolinas!! Who does he post under on FB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 2 hours ago, Jon said: Euro Weeklies Summary -Pacific low gets broken down Dec 3-4, sets the stage for a trough on the WC...but... -Trough transfers to central US Dec 7-8, +PNA -By Dec 12, trough on east coast and it stays this way more or less through Jan 2 -Below average 850's throughout the entire run for the east coast after first week of December. The last half of Dec looks good...it will take a while for it to get all sorted out and for us to get into a pattern conducive of wintry weather, but the weeklies are improving with each run and I highly, highly doubt the pacific will suck the entire month of December. Signs of a pattern change within the next month has been showing up for a while now, but the weeklies should put some at ease. Thanks Jon. Is that from today ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 What are the parameters for the PNA?Did you get your question answered? If no, what do you mean by parameters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 2 hours ago, Jon said: Euro Weeklies Summary -Pacific low gets broken down Dec 3-4, sets the stage for a trough on the WC...but... -Trough transfers to central US Dec 7-8, +PNA -By Dec 12, trough on east coast and it stays this way more or less through Jan 2 -Below average 850's throughout the entire run for the east coast after first week of December. The last half of Dec looks good...it will take a while for it to get all sorted out and for us to get into a pattern conducive of wintry weather, but the weeklies are improving with each run and I highly, highly doubt the pacific will suck the entire month of December. Signs of a pattern change within the next month has been showing up for a while now, but the weeklies should put some at ease. How well have weeklies been verifying? I know the monthly (seasonal?) model runs have utterly failed, and don't have a good history over the past few winters, but I haven't seen anything about how accurate the weeklies are. I know these pattern changes can be frustrating when they are drawn out a few weeks longer than first shown, but I'm just glad we're going through this now instead of a month later, like we did last year. I do believe that this pattern change will happen, and that the Pacific pattern will improve eventually. A big part of this will likely be the PDO; over the last couple of months, the +PDO we've seen dominate the North Pacific pattern seemed to disappear. Yet, the PDO has made an incredible comeback over the past few weeks: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.html. The PDO and PNA often fall into the same phase, so I anticipate that this comeback will help drive a west coast ridge as we progress into the future. The timeline the weeklies show may work out, and if so I think it would be a very nice pattern. The movement of the trough may not be so immediate, though. I wouldn't worry if the pattern gets delayed a little bit more, as it will likely work out. Not to mention climatologically speaking, this delay (even if small) probably puts the most favorable of conditions in a more favorable time frame for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Just now, griteater said: Did you get your question answered? If no, what do you mean by parameters? Lol no. Well we have had a positive PNA since about the middle of October to really currently but the pattern has not shown what we would think of as a positive PNA. We have had some good periods but we have also had systems crashing into the NW. We have had record warmth in this plus Pna regime also. So how do they measure the PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.