Winter 2016-17 discussion

[Bob Chill]

57 minutes ago, jburns said:

This far south, as far as winter weather is concerned, 12 hours out is a guess.

Lol. Ain't that the truth. We're usually the same way up here. Maybe 24 hours though. Haha.

I say this every year but I always root for you guys. It wouldnt bug me a bit if a southern slider completely missed my yard but dumped all over the SE. I'd lurk your obs thread and drink beer in your honor. 

[griteater]

3 hours ago, Jon said:

83-84 also had a Strong Nino in 1983 that weakened into a Nina, much like this year.

The prior cases of super strong big dog El Ninos like '83 should serve as good starting points for the upcoming winter.  As seen below, the weaker the upcoming La Nina, and the more plus the PDO, the better chances we might have for some cold in the southeast.

[griteater]

Other risks I see for warmth are:

1. Long term and recent term winter temperature trends (warming)

2. Lingering heat from Super El Nino continuing into winter (it's been a very warm year in the states and across the globe)

3. +QBO / Nina / Low Solar / lingering cold N Atlantic waters - that combo favors early winter +AO/+NAO

 

[Jon]

40 minutes ago, griteater said:

The prior cases of super strong big dog El Ninos like '83 should serve as good starting points for the upcoming winter.  As seen below, the weaker the upcoming La Nina, and the more plus the PDO, the better chances we might have for some cold in the southeast.

Nice, I've been working on a chart with those exact years...so thanks for doing the hard work! I always spend hours noting trends and putting composites together to find someone else has done it, but I guess that's how you learn. Good stuff.

 

[FallsLake]

I think somebody had an analog of 95-96. I would absolutely love to have a repeat of that year.

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database.php

 

[Wow]

31 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I think somebody had an analog of 95-96. I would absolutely love to have a repeat of that year.

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database.php

 

We'd need to see a -NAO becoming a big player early on

[jshetley]

38 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I think somebody had an analog of 95-96. I would absolutely love to have a repeat of that year.

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database.php

 

That was NOT a good winter in SC though. 

[FallsLake]

27 minutes ago, Wow said:

We'd need to see a -NAO becoming a big player early on

I agree and all I can say is we're due.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

3 hours ago, jshetley said:

That was NOT a good winter in SC though. 

Well I need to look up where Jonesville is, but it was a great winter in my part (Pickens County). I consider that one of (if the not the) best winter ever. Several snows of varying amounts, couple of dustings, an ice storm, and the best wall to wall cold that I can remember here. Yes it had the freak low 80s for two days in Feb, but that was after an ice storm, and then it got cold again. Would love a repeat of that one. Bet Boononites would too. 

[pcbjr]

What is this thing called "winter"?

[jshetley]

4 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Well I need to look up where Jonesville is, but it was a great winter in my part (Pickens County). I consider that one of (if the not the) best winter ever. Several snows of varying amounts, couple of dustings, an ice storm, and the best wall to wall cold that I can remember here. Yes it had the freak low 80s for two days in Feb, but that was after an ice storm, and then it got cold again. Would love a repeat of that one. Bet Boononites would too. 

That winter was not good for SC southeast of I-85. Pickens county is north of there and yes did have a much better winter than 75% of the state. Here in Union county we only got 2 1 inch or so snow events while NC and Tenn and on north racked up. We did get get that ice storm at all over here. And speaking of cold weather I would rather it not be that cold without snow. The last 10 days of Dec last year had perfect weather with the 60's and 70's. The winter I'd like to see repeated is 1986-87. That wasn't cold, but we got 2 major winter storms here. You would not like it, but a repeat of the Carolina Crusher would be very nice too.

[lookingnorth]

8 hours ago, griteater said:

The prior cases of super strong big dog El Ninos like '83 should serve as good starting points for the upcoming winter.  As seen below, the weaker the upcoming La Nina, and the more plus the PDO, the better chances we might have for some cold in the southeast.

1889 had the warmest December on record for the Raleigh area until 2015 topped it. 1890 still has the warmest February on record.

In fact, 1889-90 was the warmest winter on record. It looks like it was the warmest winter on record for Charlotte as well.

[Brick Tamland]

I think it is pointless now to try to figure out what winter will be like here. It doesn't matter what the indices and pattern looks like. We have seen time and time again when the indices and pattern supposedly look great for a lot of winter storms, and we end up with a mediocre to below average winter. Also, we have seen before when the indices and pattern looks terrible we can end up having a monster storm. When it comes to the southeast, and especially trying to figure out the Triangle area, winter is gonna do what it's gonna do.

[Jon]

17 hours ago, Wow said:

We'd need to see a -NAO becoming a big player early on

Don't we always! At least it was a +PDO winter...

Edit: I'm so happy you can post direct links to image without having to code.

[FallsLake]

Somebody might have already posted this but here is the JAMSTEC:

**but source data is almost one mouth out of date

 

[Jon]

I've compiled some new composites based solely on ENSO state and strength rankings. The ENSO data I compiled is based on the NCEI/NCAR Reanalysis MEI data & rankings (1948-present) that Eric Webb (webberweather on twitter) has compiled here: http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/NCEINCAR-Multivariate-ENSO-Index-MEI-Raw-Data-Rankings-1948-Present.txt

Essentially, this changes a lot of the years we considered "moderate" or "weak"...For example, previously 2010-11 was a weak nina, now considered a super strong nina. As you can imagine, this makes a huge difference when you're including/excluding years in certain composite maps.

The new composites are a nice change from the old.

Weak ninas since 1950: DJF, D, J, F, M temps and precip composites. N=7  

(right click view image for full resolution, I haven't figured this new theme out yet)

 

 

Moderate Ninas since 1950: DJF, D, J, F, M temps and precip composites. N=7

 

Weak Nina composite:

-Overall colder and wetter

-Normal or above normal precip for majority of SE

-March torches

 

Moderate Nina composite:

-Warmer and drier, especially in the SE

-February torches

 

Overall, we want a Weak Nina. I could do some maps for Neutral ENSO as not even a weak nina is guaranteed. I threw these maps together fast so there may be errors, if so let me know. Pay attention to the scales/standard deviations at the bottom as they change image-to-image.

 

[Jon]

For the sake of power, I've included weak AND moderate ninas in this composite of Ninas w/ +PDO N=6 since 1950

 

 

 

While precip is normal, Jan is an icebox, especially in the central US.

 

 

[FallsLake]

Thanks for all the research Jon. (so) Lets hope for that very weak nina and +PDO; and while we're hoping how about a -NAO.

 

[FallsLake]

3 hours ago, SimeonNC said:

Does the lack of sun activity we've had lately factor very much for winter conditions?

That's a good question. Most climatologist would say the effects are not conclusive at this point. Others say it is. Here is a good article from the Old Farmers Almanac which does believe there is a direct link.

http://www.almanac.com/content/solar-activity-2016

 

[griteater]

18 hours ago, SimeonNC said:

Does the lack of sun activity we've had lately factor very much for winter conditions?

In addition to what Falls posted, here's a 'heavy' paper on the solar cycles, NAO, and temperatures https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264625893_Spatial_distribution_of_Northern_Hemisphere_winter_temperatures_during_different_phases_of_the_solar_cycle

Our past 2 winters match the findings in the paper of +NAO during the declining phase of the solar cycle.

Excerpt....

We have shown that the different phases of the sunspot cycle have a different effect on winter surface

temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere and on the NAO index. By defining a sunspot cycle phase func-

tion in terms of the official sunspot maximum and minimum times, we showed that the declining phase of

the sunspot cycle remarkably consistently produces the spatial pattern of surface temperature anomalies

related to the positive NAO during the last 13 solar cycles. We also showed that the close similarity between

the surface temperature patterns in the declining phase and during the positive NAO does not depend on

the overall sunspot activity level but remains essentially the same during both the weak solar cycles at the

turn of nineteenth/twentieth century and during active solar cycles in the latter half of the twentieth cen-

tury.

 

[Jon]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

In addition to what Falls posted, here's a 'heavy' paper on the solar cycles, NAO, and temperatures https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264625893_Spatial_distribution_of_Northern_Hemisphere_winter_temperatures_during_different_phases_of_the_solar_cycle

Our past 2 winters match the findings in the paper of +NAO during the declining phase of the solar cycle.

Excerpt....

We have shown that the different phases of the sunspot cycle have a different effect on winter surface

temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere and on the NAO index. By defining a sunspot cycle phase func-

tion in terms of the official sunspot maximum and minimum times, we showed that the declining phase of

the sunspot cycle remarkably consistently produces the spatial pattern of surface temperature anomalies

related to the positive NAO during the last 13 solar cycles. We also showed that the close similarity between

the surface temperature patterns in the declining phase and during the positive NAO does not depend on

the overall sunspot activity level but remains essentially the same during both the weak solar cycles at the

turn of nineteenth/twentieth century and during active solar cycles in the latter half of the twentieth cen-

tury.

 

 

Soooo basically with 95% confidence, since we're in the declining phase of the solar cycle, we're going to have a +NAO. Wonderful.

[FallsLake]

5 minutes ago, Jon said:

 

Soooo basically with 95% confidence, since we're in the declining phase of the solar cycle, we're going to have a +NAO. Wonderful.

But we are in uncharted waters right now. The current maximum was very low (in terms of sun spots). The past couple of years has already had a predominate +NAO. So who knows, maybe this winter responds more like a minimum giving a higher chance of -NAO. ...just a thought 

[Cold Rain]

We are in a period of mostly +NAOs and fewer winter storms.  We can attribute it to global warming, solar, magnetic pole shift, or aliens.  But the fact of the matter is, until there is evidence that that pattern is broken, the safest (and most likely to be correct) winter calls will likely be normal to warmer, a +NAO in the means for D-J, and less snow overall, regardless of what analogues or ENSO or other indecies suggest.  Persistence forecasting is not really sexy and doesn't really require a lot of scientific input.  I'm nowhere near smart enough to know why things currently are the way they are, but I appreciate and admire the exploration of it by all of you guys every year.  But I think slightly above average temps with below average snowfall is a safe, general forecast for the SE this year.

[FallsLake]

4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

We are in a period of mostly +NAOs and fewer winter storms.  We can attribute it to global warming, solar, magnetic pole shift, or aliens.  But the fact of the matter is, until there is evidence that that pattern is broken, the safest (and most likely to be correct) winter calls will likely be normal to warmer, a +NAO in the means for D-J, and less snow overall, regardless of what analogues or ENSO or other indecies suggest.  Persistence forecasting is not really sexy and doesn't really require a lot of scientific input.  I'm nowhere near smart enough to know why things currently are the way they are, but I appreciate and admire the exploration of it by all of you guys every year.  But I think slightly above average temps with below average snowfall is a safe, general forecast for the SE this year.

I agree with you CR. I do enjoy reading people's winter forecast or theories on why one pattern should predominate over another (Siberian snow cover talks should start in a month). But I've learned to wait until early December and just start looking at the short term models. If I see something, then I actually get my hopes up. I think I'll even give up on my Halloween storm theory; we didn't get one last year and December still torched.      

[Cold Rain]

3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I agree with you CR. I do enjoy reading people's winter forecast or theories on why one pattern should predominate over another (Siberian snow cover talks should start in a month). But I've learned to wait until early December and just start looking at the short term models. If I see something, then I actually get my hopes up. I think I'll even give up on my Halloween storm theory; we didn't get one last year and December still torched.      

I do too!  I always get a little excited when I see cold and snowy forecasts.  It's one of my favorite times of year -- when all of the winter forecasts start coming out.  And no matter what they say, I'm still excited for winter, even if there is just a remote chance of a snowstorm!

[griteater]

50 minutes ago, Jon said:

Soooo basically with 95% confidence, since we're in the declining phase of the solar cycle, we're going to have a +NAO. Wonderful.

Yeah, I think it's fair to say that we can throw this winter into the declining solar bucket based on how it's spliced in that paper.....with a move into the minimum solar bucket maybe by next winter.

[griteater]

51 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

But we are in uncharted waters right now. The current maximum was very low (in terms of sun spots). The past couple of years has already had a predominate +NAO. So who knows, maybe this winter responds more like a minimum giving a higher chance of -NAO. ...just a thought 

Just a note that the paper found that the correlation of declining solar cycle and +NAO was consistent regardless of the solar cycle strength 

[FallsLake]

41 minutes ago, griteater said:

Just a note that the paper found that the correlation of declining solar cycle and +NAO was consistent regardless of the solar cycle strength 

Well darn; always looking for a sliver of hope...

[Upstate Tiger]

Well the Tigers are on the practice field so it won't be long now until we start checking the extended forecasts for the first cool snap!

83-84 here in the upstate featured a cool late fall and a very cold period around Christmas.  Christmas day was very cold but we did not have any snow the last two weeks of December during the really cold period.  Instead we had a couple of freezing rain events between Christmas and New Years. 

After an average temp and below average precip January, we had a 2" snow in February followed by a very warm and severe spring that included deadly tornadoes in SC almost a year to day after the big snowstorm in 83.  Overall, it was a dry DJF. 

[packbacker]

21 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

I do too!  I always get a little excited when I see cold and snowy forecasts.  It's one of my favorite times of year -- when all of the winter forecasts start coming out.  And no matter what they say, I'm still excited for winter, even if there is just a remote chance of a snowstorm!

Since 89 we have several good winters/events in weak nina's or neutral neg's (89/96/00/02/09/14).  Majority of the nino's have sucked.  I don't have much hope for this winter but that's more from us sucking so bad for so long seems hopeless. 

I thought Grit had posted a chart somewhere that RDU did better in nina's than nino's.  I am sure 00 skews it some but it's worth something I guess.