Winter 2016-17 discussion

[J.C.]

On a side note, how about that storm yesterday?  Two days prior there was hardly a chance of rain, all of a sudden we are on the right side (left) of a storm with temps in the low 40s with .75" of rain.  Maybe its an omen.

[Jon]

Pack, I think you'll be happy to know despite the Uk seasonal, the newest Euro weeklies show a cold December. As I expected some of the LR modeling will start to realize what the indices seem to have been pointing towards, a little lagged but they're picking up. Exhibit A: GEFS today, Exhibit B: Euro Weeklies.

Huge -NAO by Dec 9 and a rockin pattern for cold and stormy.

The PAC gets fixed and the trough sets up over the tip of the Aleutians, giving us a -EPO/+PNA ridge with a massive -NAO block along with a -AO.

If you want to see what a front loaded winter looks like, go check out the weeklies.

[griteater]

Cohen's Model Forecast for winter released today (little change from Oct version)

[packbacker]

11 minutes ago, griteater said:

Cohen's Model Forecast for winter released today (little change from Oct version)

Looks a little colder.  Hope his block verifies :-)

[Met1985]

43 minutes ago, Jon said:

Pack, I think you'll be happy to know despite the Uk seasonal, the newest Euro weeklies show a cold December. As I expected some of the LR modeling will start to realize what the indices seem to have been pointing towards, a little lagged but they're picking up. Exhibit A: GEFS today, Exhibit B: Euro Weeklies.

Huge -NAO by Dec 9 and a rockin pattern for cold and stormy.

The PAC gets fixed and the trough sets up over the tip of the Aleutians, giving us a -EPO/+PNA ridge with a massive -NAO block along with a -AO.

If you want to see what a front loaded winter looks like, go check out the weeklies.

Great stuff Jon! keep it coming . 

[packbacker]

1 hour ago, Jon said:

Pack, I think you'll be happy to know despite the Uk seasonal, the newest Euro weeklies show a cold December. As I expected some of the LR modeling will start to realize what the indices seem to have been pointing towards, a little lagged but they're picking up. Exhibit A: GEFS today, Exhibit B: Euro Weeklies.

Huge -NAO by Dec 9 and a rockin pattern for cold and stormy.

The PAC gets fixed and the trough sets up over the tip of the Aleutians, giving us a -EPO/+PNA ridge with a massive -NAO block along with a -AO.

If you want to see what a front loaded winter looks like, go check out the weeklies.

The day 7+ evolution is interesting on the globals.  The PDO ticking up and a potentially dying Nina all look promising.  Just need some intermittent blocking.  It seems like forever since we had a BN Dec.  

[NCSNOW]

Need to slide this in here. Should have done it 2 weeks ago. As much as we bash tv mets, wghp van denton on the 6:00 news early Nov spent several minutes explaining how the last 10 days of Nov we where gonna flip a switch into bn, big pattern shift giving a early start to winter. It's looking like he should end up being right. Rare you see that, let alone end up verefying.

[packbacker]

10 hours ago, Jon said:

Pack, I think you'll be happy to know despite the Uk seasonal, the newest Euro weeklies show a cold December. As I expected some of the LR modeling will start to realize what the indices seem to have been pointing towards, a little lagged but they're picking up. Exhibit A: GEFS today, Exhibit B: Euro Weeklies.

Huge -NAO by Dec 9 and a rockin pattern for cold and stormy.

The PAC gets fixed and the trough sets up over the tip of the Aleutians, giving us a -EPO/+PNA ridge with a massive -NAO block along with a -AO.

If you want to see what a front loaded winter looks like, go check out the weeklies.

Inside day 10 now.  

Edit:  Although to classify as a major I guess it's reversal at 60N?

[Upstate Tiger]

Just maybe we finally get some help from the Atlantic

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

 

[griteater]

1 hour ago, packbacker said:

Inside day 10 now.  

Edit:  Although to classify as a major I guess it's reversal at 60N?

There isn't a consistent definition, but the paper below covers the various definitions used.  I would have to re-read it, but I believe a reversal at 65N is viewed as a good definition in the paper, but reversal at 60N was the traditional definition used...need to have a reversal plus a significant temperature warming.

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/JournalPDFs/Butler_et_al_2015_bams-d-13-00173.1.pdf

[packbacker]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

There isn't a consistent definition, but the paper below covers the various definitions used.  I would have to re-read it, but I believe a reversal at 65N is viewed as a good definition in the paper, but reversal at 60N was the traditional definition used...need to have a reversal plus a significant temperature warming.

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/JournalPDFs/Butler_et_al_2015_bams-d-13-00173.1.pdf

Cohen just tweeted about the warming.  Lots of if's but Dec into early Jan....

[downeastnc]

10/11 was like that AN until Thanksgiving week, then average until Dec 3rd.....then the bottom fell out.....snowed 4 times in Dec here.....if we have a winter half as good as that one it will be a decent winter.....

[Brick Tamland]

I guess the big switch from above normal and dry to below normal and stormy makes sense if you believe in the pendulum theory of the pattern swinging from one extreme to the other to balance things out. 

[Jon]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

There isn't a consistent definition, but the paper below covers the various definitions used.  I would have to re-read it, but I believe a reversal at 65N is viewed as a good definition in the paper, but reversal at 60N was the traditional definition used...need to have a reversal plus a significant temperature warming.

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/JournalPDFs/Butler_et_al_2015_bams-d-13-00173.1.pdf

Interesting, after a quick read it seems like 65N has more data backing actual SSW's historically than 60N wind reversal. 

[griteater]

Interesting, after a quick read it seems like 65N has more data backing actual SSW's historically than 60N wind reversal. 

That's how I remember it too Jon

[NC_hailstorm]

Crap that's almost a technical SSW coming in today,solar minimum is starting to kick in a little now.I see a lot of 2009-2010 here which had a strong early December warming before a stronger one in January.MJO in a good spot as well so we'll see.

''Low solar activity"
Research and empirical observations have shown that low solar activity tends to be correlated with frequent high-latitude atmospheric blocking patterns and we are now experiencing one of the weakest solar cycles (#24) in more than a century. Furthermore, this already weak solar cycle is headed rapidly towards the next solar minimum - usually the least active time in a given cycle. In fact, the last solar minimum from 2007-to-2009 registered the quietest period in at least a century.''

So the next solar minimum phase is expected to take place around 2019 or 2020. So we are on 24 cycle since records began in 1755 this quiet phase is the weakest since 1906..

[packfan98]

I thought Brad P was going to post his winter outlook, but I can't find it anywhere.  Looks like Van Denton's will be coming out on Monday.

 

 

Van Denton FOX8 WGHP TV

14 hrs · 

What will the winter bring? I just finished my winter forecast and it will be presented on the FOX8 News at 5pm Monday, Nov. 21st. Here is a hint, we may see a little snow earlier this year.

[Met1985]

58 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

I thought Brad P was going to post his winter outlook, but I can't find it anywhere.  Looks like Van Denton's will be coming out on Monday.

 

 

Van Denton FOX8 WGHP TV

14 hrs · 

What will the winter bring? I just finished my winter forecast and it will be presented on the FOX8 News at 5pm Monday, Nov. 21st. Here is a hint, we may see a little snow earlier this year.

He said tonight was the night per his bosses . 

[Met1985]

48 minutes ago, SimeonNC said:

I just noticed the complete lack of a SE ridge. Most of the ridging has been to our west. Also, isn't this the time of year where ridging is more likely to breakdown than build? If so, this might change a lot of forecasts.

If the Pacific side does not come together we will have a persistent SE ridge I think. Up and down.

[Jon]

3 hours ago, Met1985 said:

If the Pacific side does not come together we will have a persistent SE ridge I think. Up and down.

With the -NAO/blocking shown on the modeling we won't get a SE ridge, for sure.

[Met1985]

6 minutes ago, Jon said:

With the -NAO/blocking shown on the modeling we won't get a SE ridge, for sure.

That NAO block will have to be stout to override the Pacific. We will see what happens. It does not look like the epo is going to help this month but maybe next month . 

[griteater]

42 minutes ago, Jon said:

With the -NAO/blocking shown on the modeling we won't get a SE ridge, for sure.

 

34 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

That NAO block will have to be stout to override the Pacific. We will see what happens. It does not look like the epo is going to help this month but maybe next month . 

I'm thinking that the Pac train is going to be difficult to slow down over the next few weeks.  Let's see if the -NAO comes to fruition.  Personally, I'm a bigger fan of having the Atlantic side on board, tho both are preferred and often needed for winter interests down south.

[mackerel_sky]

1 minute ago, griteater said:

 

I'm thinking that the Pac train is going to be difficult to slow down over the next few weeks.  Let's see if the -NAO comes to fruition.  Personally, I'm a bigger fan of having the Atlantic side on board, tho both are preferred and often needed for winter interests down south.

How was the blocking and pacific, during the 95/96 and 9/10 winters? I've heard them mentioned as ninas and possibly used as analogs for this winter?

[Met1985]

6 minutes ago, griteater said:

 

I'm thinking that the Pac train is going to be difficult to slow down over the next few weeks.  Let's see if the -NAO comes to fruition.  Personally, I'm a bigger fan of having the Atlantic side on board, tho both are preferred and often needed for winter interests down south.

Yeah I agree Griteater. Not trying to diminish the blocking coming up but just knowing how the pac has acted and looks in that it's going to be very hard to override that screaming pac. I Saw where I think Bluewave posted that this was a record pac for October through November or it will be a record . 

[griteater]

11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

How was the blocking and pacific, during the 95/96 and 9/10 winters? I've heard them mentioned as ninas and possibly used as analogs for this winter?

09/10 had as good of parameters as we'll ever see (I'm speaking in hyperbole, but you get the idea) - moderate El Nino, low solar, -QBO, major negative and west based NAO, and -AO.  Ridging in W Canada and E Alaska.  We didn't fully cash in from GSP to RDU, but Asheville and Columbia did.

95-96 was a weak La Nina with a very solidly -NAO (more east based) / -AO.  Ridging in W Alaska and SW U.S.  Eastern U.S. trough.  For combined snow and ice, 95-96 was a top notch winter...only other winter that topped it in Charlotte since 1973 was 78-79 (this is for combined snow and ice stats since 1973).

[Daniel Boone]

Some don't remember but, even the famed 95-96 winter had bouts of mildness due to the pac jet undercutting ak ridge and riding over sw trough. many systems that winter travelled from pac nw se and under the block to miller b miller a hybrids.

78-79 is a good example that you can get cold/snow into se with a strong -nao and unfavorable pacific. it was mild into december on with all cold snow out west then, nao went neg. and dec gradually cooled as month wore on. entire nation shivered jan-feb..

[packbacker]

Agree with Grit, prefer Atlantic.   Been so long since we have seen low heights out in the Atlantic.  Past winters have been +PNA/+NAO have largely sucked, except for 2014. Need a 60's revival. 

 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

As far as I recall, 95-96 was a crappy winter other than that big cold spell in February where we had a high in the teens.

[nchighcountrywx]

CPC Winter Outlook was published this morning

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

 

[packbacker]

7 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

As far as I recall, 95-96 was a crappy winter other than that big cold spell in February where we had a high in the teens.

I would think the mid Atlantic and TN would like a repeat.  It was good for northern half of NC.