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Winter 2016-17 discussion


lookingnorth

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1 hour ago, packbacker said:

We are sneakily BN the past week and if you believe the GEFS you could argue we could be, on average, BN the next week or two.  Maybe parts of the E/SE does have a chance at BN for Nov. 

7dTDeptUS.png

Most of the SE has been above normal though. Not sure why the Carolinas and East GA have been cooler than everywhere else. Maybe because those areas have had more rain ? 

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2 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Most of the SE has been above normal though. Not sure why the Carolinas and East GA have been cooler than everywhere else.

Probably the abundant soil moisture from Matthew, that helps keep the temperatures cooler, with the Suns energy going to evaporation, something we don't have in Ga and Western Carolinas

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22 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Probably the abundant soil moisture from Matthew, that helps keep the temperatures cooler, with the Suns energy going to evaporation, something we don't have in Ga and Western Carolinas

We haven't had any rain in over 30 days, it is definitely not that.  Its the opposite with the dry air and and the low temperatures.  

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3 hours ago, packbacker said:

We are sneakily BN the past week and if you believe the GEFS you could argue we could be, on average, BN the next week or two.  Maybe parts of the E/SE does have a chance at BN for Nov. 

7dTDeptUS.png

Yeah iv been noticing that in relationship to the rest of the country we are not doing bad with temps. If the Gfs plays out the way it looks then we could been sitting solidly below normal . 

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1 hour ago, J.C. said:

Actually its the extremely dry air allowing our low temperatures to drop well into the 30s, which is counteracting the slightly above average high temperatures.

Low temps at CAE the past 6 days:

36, 38, 36, 47, 37, 35

This right here. Same here in WNC. Our highs have been running just slightly above normal but our lows are a good 5 to 10 degrees below normal . 

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4 hours ago, J.C. said:

Actually its the extremely dry air allowing our low temperatures to drop well into the 30s, which is counteracting the slightly above average high temperatures.

Low temps at CAE the past 6 days:

36, 38, 36, 47, 37, 35

So why are the areas that have been wettest getting the driest air ? Atlanta has been at or above normal every single day this month.

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2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yes sir.

The mornings have been amazing.  Very cool mornings around here.  Hitting the upper 30s at night then bouncing up to like 70+ in the day.

 

the temp also drops off like a rock at sunset.  Most of the cooling takes place before 10-11 it seems.  Just has a desert feel to the weather.  

 

today has been cooler and tomorrow even more so.  I could see November temps being around normal here give or take a little. 

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3 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

The mornings have been amazing.  Very cool mornings around here.  Hitting the upper 30s at night then bouncing up to like 70+ in the day.

 

the temp also drops off like a rock at sunset.  Most of the cooling takes place before 10-11 it seems.  Just had a desert feel to the weather.  

 

today has been cooler and tomorrow even more so.  I could see November temps being around normal here give or take a little. 

You do realize Atlanta is running 7 degrees above normal for the month so far. The second half of November better be way below normal for things to even out for the month.

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3 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

You do realize Atlanta is running 7 degrees above normal for the month so far. The second half of November better be way below normal for things to even out for the month.

That's skewed by the first few days of the month which were carry over from the October torch.  The pattern has changed temp wise.  Also tomorrow will be a big - departure day.

IMG_1556.PNG

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35 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

That's skewed by the first few days of the month which were carry over from the October torch.  The pattern has changed temp wise.  Also tomorrow will be a big - departure day.

IMG_1556.PNG

Afternoon highs will once again be near 10 degrees above normal mid to late next week.

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2 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

That's skewed by the first few days of the month which were carry over from the October torch.  The pattern has changed temp wise.  Also tomorrow will be a big - departure day.

 

That's why I think it is important to look at the number of days that have been below, above, and at normal. a couple of extreme days either way can really skew the average. 

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3 minutes ago, SimeonNC said:

Looks like the predicted pattern change seems to be happening but not in the way that we all thought. I think the pattern is gonna sort itself out by the first week of Dec.

I agree.  We have time.  We were so far on one side of an extreme it's going to take some stepping down to get where we want to be. 

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Just now, LithiaWx said:

Down here we need to hit the target square on to score.  I need a jammin January for best chances this far south. 

First half of January is still the first half winter. Maybe we can get you guys something then. **Heck while we're wishing lets hope for a Christmas miracle for a large swath of the SE. Just need some of that Asian cold to cross the pole at the right time and direction.

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Seems more and more our weather is one of extremes. So, I think either we just hold on to the above normal temps all winter, or we go the other way and have lots of cold and snow. It doesn't seem to be anything in between or normal anymore. I would say one thing on our side here in central and eastern NC is how much precip we have had, but ever since Matthew it has been pretty dry here, too.

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

First half of January is still the first half winter. Maybe we can get you guys something then. **Heck while we're wishing lets hope for a Christmas miracle for a large swath of the SE. Just need some of that Asian cold to cross the pole at the right time and direction.

It's super-cold on the other side of the world, no question! I mean I think there is a 1065 MB high over Siberia now!? Our worst nightmare , would be for it to get to our side of the world and dump into the west coast! 

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

First half of January is still the first half winter. Maybe we can get you guys something then. **Heck while we're wishing lets hope for a Christmas miracle for a large swath of the SE. Just need some of that Asian cold to cross the pole at the right time and direction.

Agreed sir.  Antecdotely early to mid Jan has been the sweet spot for my part of the southeast.  I really hope you're right and I certainly see how it could happen. 

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