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Winter 2016-17 discussion


lookingnorth

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6 minutes ago, GaStorm said:

Last year he was way off for the SE from what I remember. I think it's safe to say this winter will also be tough to forecast as well.

JB looks for reasons to forecast cold and for him to back off and go warmer and less snowy should tell us something.  

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7 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Today's weeklies apparently look about as ugly as can be. blowtorch for most of the country with the big vortex in the bering sea directing traffic. One run though . 

I saw them on twitter.   Yikes...we thought last winter was bad.  

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1 hour ago, packbacker said:

I saw them on twitter.   Yikes...we thought last winter was bad.  

 

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Today's weeklies apparently look about as ugly as can be. blowtorch for most of the country with the big vortex in the bering sea directing traffic. One run though . 

Yeah, I highly doubt those weeklies verify. We've freaked out about weeklies mid-November before...patience everyone, they've busted terribly in the past. The problem I have with weeklies is people hold them to a very high standard, they're still a 46-day weekly ensemble forecast...never take them verbatim.

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JB sounded pretty mad/angry/confused on his vid this morning. Says he's going to have to consult with Joe D and Downs about some stuff. FWIW, the Euro parallel weeklies looked like a -PNA, which isn't good news for your area if you like cold and snow of course. 

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5 minutes ago, Jon said:

 

Yeah, I highly doubt those weeklies verify. We've freaked out about weeklies mid-November before...patience everyone, they've busted terribly in the past. The problem I have with weeklies is people hold them to a very high standard, they're still a 46-day weekly ensemble forecast...never take them verbatim.

No panic here.  But it's hard to justify any optimism around a pattern change to a colder pattern anywhere in the foreseeable future.  Nothing is legitimately pointing to it.  We have a long way to go until December.  And we have a long way to go beyond that to April.  It will get cold at some point.  But outside of some strat stuff and Siberian snow flurries, we're pretty much in continuation mode until further notice.

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I try to only look at the op run LR GFS 200hrs and beyond, just to get idea of the where the players might be lining up.  Right now, Thanksgiving week looks like a sweltering torch. Hope that changes but we all know that warm forecasts even LR tend to produce quite well around both our regions.  I know its an op run and very LR but theme seems to be Pac air, zonal flow, dry, and generally all the things we hate. 

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1 hour ago, packbacker said:

Jon - I can't remember a winter where every single seasonal model is warm for the conus.  Even JB updated his forecast and backed off of his early season thinking.  For us he has Dec cold but Jan slightly AN with Feb neutral.   He also backed off snow forecast.  There isn't a lot weak Nina's that are AN for Nov (4 of 19) and only one weak Nina (05/06) that was AN for both Oct/Nov.   I went back and took a quick look at how many BN months we have had since March 2014....answer is 2.  There was a couple of other months that were neutral though.  That is bleak...warm is kicking ass and taking names right now.  

Look what happened at the winters following the last super Nino...maybe a price to be paid for the still very warm SST's.

For the record I don't think we blowtorch this winter but it is on the table.  I posted last week how the top 5 SCE winters were fairly extreme for cold/winter.  Hopefully that wins out.  

 

I'd have to go pull out my data and see if I have any interesting maps on the Strong Nino to Weak Nina flips, I think I do - just at work right now.

The good thing is despite how good even the ECMWF is, the 10-day forecast has a verification rate at 500mb in the NH of 51% as a 30-day average. I can almost guarantee a 46-day ensemble has about a 20% verif rate or worse, not sure if there is data on that but I doubt it's anything to shake a stick at (is that a saying?) Anyway, we'll see. 

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16 minutes ago, Jon said:

I'd have to go pull out my data and see if I have any interesting maps on the Strong Nino to Weak Nina flips, I think I do - just at work right now.

The good thing is despite how good even the ECMWF is, the 10-day forecast has a verification rate at 500mb in the NH of 51% as a 30-day average. I can almost guarantee a 46-day ensemble has about a 20% verif rate or worse, not sure if there is data on that but I doubt it's anything to shake a stick at (is that a saying?) Anyway, we'll see. 

Agree that any one seasonal doesn't have great verification but when they all point towards warmth that is quite the consensus.  

Also, of the past 19 weak -enso's (post 1950) only 4 were warm in Nov and only 1 was warm for Oct/Nov.  So far we are not taking the path that previous cold/snowy weak ninas have.  

Again, I am hopeful for a better winter then last but don't see anything close to 13/14.  

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On 11/8/2016 at 1:57 PM, packbacker said:

Agree that any one seasonal doesn't have great verification but when they all point towards warmth that is quite the consensus.  

Also, of the past 19 weak -enso's (post 1950) only 4 were warm in Nov and only 1 was warm for Oct/Nov.  So far we are not taking the path that previous cold/snowy weak ninas have.  

Again, I am hopeful for a better winter then last but don't see anything close to 13/14.  

Yeah, consensus does have some credibility. 

Speaking of 13/14 - Did you see the Euro weeklies from 11/1/13 busted horribly and called for a torch for Dec that winter?

Click to view: https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/796009528903036932 

 

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It's funny, today on JBs video, he showed all the big indices we look at for cold, the AO, NAO, etc, were favoring cold after about the next 10 days, but then he shows the temp outlook from the models, for the same time frame, and it was blow torch city! He says the models are wrong and not the indicies!

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17 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It's funny, today on JBs video, he showed all the big indices we look at for cold, the AO, NAO, etc, were favoring cold after about the next 10 days, but then he shows the temp outlook from the models, for the same time frame, and it was blow torch city! He says the models are wrong and not the indicies!

MJO Phase 8/1 to end Nov doesn't support the warmth either

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NOAA scientists declared the arrival of La Nina today, calling it present, but weak. It is predicted to be short-lived, possibly only lasting a few months. The climate phenomena will likely contribute to drier and warmer weather in the southern U.S. and wetter, cooler conditions in the Pacific Northwest and across to the northern tier of the nation this winter. Read more: www.noaa.gov/news/hello-la-nina

 

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53 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

NOAA scientists declared the arrival of La Nina today, calling it present, but weak. It is predicted to be short-lived, possibly only lasting a few months. The climate phenomena will likely contribute to drier and warmer weather in the southern U.S. and wetter, cooler conditions in the Pacific Northwest and across to the northern tier of the nation this winter. Read more: www.noaa.gov/news/hello-la-nina

 

Weak la nina is good for snow in the South right ?  Wasn't the great winter of 2010-11 a weak la Nina ? 

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3 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Weak la nina is good for snow in the South right ?  Wasn't the great winter of 2010-11 a weak la Nina ? 

A good amount of Weak La Ninas in the past have produced above average snowfall, at least for RDU. Don't have the data on hand...I'll update this post later with it.

83-84 to name one.

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6 minutes ago, griteater said:

Jon - can you remove or crop that twitter image?  It's making this page go into an auto scroll mode...I posted one like that the other day and had to fix it

I changed it to link only

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1 hour ago, packbacker said:

No...it was mod/strong nina.  But 2014/2012/2006 were weak.

2011 was the last time we had a decent -NAO as far as I know so it didn't matter about it being a moderate nina. We are way overdue for some decent blocking this year that's for sure.

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1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

12Z Euro day 10 shows 8-12 degree below normal 850 temps across VA/NC/TN. -10 to -12 850's for the mountains! It has shown a cold shot around that time period for a while now. Could be the first real shot of upslope snow for WNC/ETN

Yep...and EPS agrees showing a legit -AO/-EPO pattern.  Yes, trough off the west coast but still would be well BN with that pattern.  

Models have been inconsistent to say the least past day 7.

 

 

Screen Shot 2016-11-10 at 4.15.10 PM.png

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