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Winter 2016-17 discussion


lookingnorth

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4 hours ago, griteater said:

Based on this, it sounds like the SAI was maybe 2nd or 3rd highest ever (tho I'm speculating).  1976 was super high.

 

Interesting...another thought he had.  

@jacquesmainguy @rebelstar83 for now I like an 90/10 scenario but if we start off Dec with a blow torch pattern I will favor 05/06 and 11/12

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1 hour ago, packbacker said:

Interesting...another thought he had.  

@jacquesmainguy @rebelstar83 for now I like an 90/10 scenario but if we start off Dec with a blow torch pattern I will favor 05/06 and 11/12

Pack - I think I blew up the page with that big Cohen image....can you remove it in the quoted post above?  I have replaced it with a small version.

That's an odd statement.  I assume he is referring to 2009/2010.  Pattern wise, that winter couldn't have been anymore opposite of 2011/2012

 

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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Pack - I think I blew up the page with that big Cohen image....can you remove it in the quoted post above?  I have replaced it with a small version.

That's an odd statement.  I assume he is referring to 2009/2010.  Pattern wise, that winter couldn't have been anymore opposite of 2011/2012

 

Yep 11/12 sucked. This was the one "big" event for the year:

 

11-2-2016 3-17-43 PM.jpg

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3 hours ago, griteater said:

Yeah, that's a good one Pack.  Crazy GFS run from last night showing a record weak PV. 

 

That just screams front-loaded winter to me. I feel anyone forecasting a back-loaded winter is going to be wrong, unless the entirety is cold, which I highly doubt.

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1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said:

This will be the winter for the clippers!!  Congrats Midwest, N.Midatlantic, and Northeast, our only hope is for a clipper to dive very far south which doesn't happen very often!  :thumbsdown:   That's all I got to say about that.....................

I say this winter will create it's own analog :lol: Unprecedented heat to begin November, unprecedented date for polar vortex splits, so on and so forth. I am just going to sit back, watch and enjoy either way.

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2 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said:

This will be the winter for the clippers!!  Congrats Midwest, N.Midatlantic, and Northeast, our only hope is for a clipper to dive very far south which doesn't happen very often!  :thumbsdown:   That's all I got to say about that.....................

"Lakes Low" 

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2 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said:

This will be the winter for the clippers!!  Congrats Midwest, N.Midatlantic, and Northeast, our only hope is for a clipper to dive very far south which doesn't happen very often!  :thumbsdown:   That's all I got to say about that.....................

If that's the case it'll be the worst of all. Cold and dry. Lots of wind too, which will fan wildfires like crazy.

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5 minutes ago, jshetley said:

If that's the case it'll be the worst of all. Cold and dry. Lots of wind too, which will fan wildfires like crazy.

Yes Sir, I hope I'm wrong, which it was just a guess anyway to see how good my gut is at weather! lol  It's DRY as a bone up here too! Sure would love to see a good soaker..............

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1 hour ago, Bhs1975 said:

The almanac says winter cancel. 

SKIERS REJOICE!

Farmers’ Almanac is also red-flagging February 16-19, when a small, but intense storm develops near the Virginia Capes and delivers a heavy snowstorm with strong winds for parts of the Tennessee Valley, through western North Carolina, the Virginias, Maryland, and Delaware northeast into southern New England – some locations could receive 1 to 2 feet of accumulation!

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17 hours ago, Jon said:

That just screams front-loaded winter to me. I feel anyone forecasting a back-loaded winter is going to be wrong, unless the entirety is cold, which I highly doubt.

My guess is front loaded too.  But, is interesting the two other high sce nina winters (71/14) were backloaded.

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21 hours ago, griteater said:

Yeah, that's a good one Pack.  Crazy GFS run from last night showing a record weak PV. 

2dvvdjk.gif

Interesting composite supporting pattern change many models are hitting on for last half of Nov from @wxjay on twitter.... Weak PV + MJO Phase 7-8

CwRVjg4UsAAZQT_.jpg 

 

 

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This modeled pattern change seems like the same ole same ole...warmth.  I posted this a few weeks back, for November the majority of weak nina's were BN for the central/east, only 4/19 that I could find were AN (2011, 2005, 1985, 1964).  Will be interesting to see if the final 10 days of Nov can really see a change.  But as things stand now it's a good chance that Nov will be another AN for much of the conus.

Screen Shot 2016-11-03 at 2.58.45 PM.png

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43 minutes ago, packbacker said:

This modeled pattern change seems like the same ole same ole...warmth.  I posted this a few weeks back, for November the majority of weak nina's were BN for the central/east, only 4/19 that I could find were AN (2011, 2005, 1985, 1964).  Will be interesting to see if the final 10 days of Nov can really see a change.  But as things stand now it's a good chance that Nov will be another AN for much of the conus.

Screen Shot 2016-11-03 at 2.58.45 PM.png

Yeah I agree pack. This month looks like above normal now. The Pacific jet is just wrecking the pattern .  It's driving warm air into Canada so we don't torch alone lol.

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19 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Lol Grit!  When we start banking on the stratosphere, you know we're in trouble.  That's like one of the last nails in the coffin.

Why you and Grit hating on the strat!  It's our only hope :fulltilt:

When was the last time that Oct/Nov had a stout Scand/Kara ridge...

Edit:  1981 for one.  That would make folks happy.

Screen Shot 2016-11-04 at 1.32.44 PM.png


 

Screen Shot 2016-11-04 at 1.36.58 PM.png

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3 hours ago, snowlover91 said:

Thanks for posting and good luck with your forecast.  Everyone seems to be going cool to start out winter.  Someone needs to go against that and become the hero if it is warm. 

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You know, something I wonder about with regards to the last few decades of winter warming in the SE: is the warming more due to a greater prevalence of warm patterns, or is it more due to overall warming of both warm and cold patterns?  Anecdotally it seems to me that the many of the "sucky" winters are associated with the persistence of some "sucky" pattern feature, such as a screaming Pacific jet or ferociously strong Bermuda high (looking at you last Christmas)

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3 hours ago, griteater said:

Thanks for posting and good luck with your forecast.  Everyone seems to be going cool to start out winter.  Someone needs to go against that and become the hero if it is warm. 

Larry Cosgrove doesn't foresee cold in the SE until at least Feb.  Although I am beginning to wonder about the science content of his forecasts.

 

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/weatheramerica

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