packbacker Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 4 hours ago, griteater said: Based on this, it sounds like the SAI was maybe 2nd or 3rd highest ever (tho I'm speculating). 1976 was super high. Interesting...another thought he had. @jacquesmainguy @rebelstar83 for now I like an 90/10 scenario but if we start off Dec with a blow torch pattern I will favor 05/06 and 11/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 1 hour ago, packbacker said: Interesting...another thought he had. @jacquesmainguy @rebelstar83 for now I like an 90/10 scenario but if we start off Dec with a blow torch pattern I will favor 05/06 and 11/12 Pack - I think I blew up the page with that big Cohen image....can you remove it in the quoted post above? I have replaced it with a small version. That's an odd statement. I assume he is referring to 2009/2010. Pattern wise, that winter couldn't have been anymore opposite of 2011/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Pack - I think I blew up the page with that big Cohen image....can you remove it in the quoted post above? I have replaced it with a small version. That's an odd statement. I assume he is referring to 2009/2010. Pattern wise, that winter couldn't have been anymore opposite of 2011/2012 Yep 11/12 sucked. This was the one "big" event for the year: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 3 hours ago, griteater said: Yeah, that's a good one Pack. Crazy GFS run from last night showing a record weak PV. That just screams front-loaded winter to me. I feel anyone forecasting a back-loaded winter is going to be wrong, unless the entirety is cold, which I highly doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 This will be the winter for the clippers!! Congrats Midwest, N.Midatlantic, and Northeast, our only hope is for a clipper to dive very far south which doesn't happen very often! That's all I got to say about that..................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said: This will be the winter for the clippers!! Congrats Midwest, N.Midatlantic, and Northeast, our only hope is for a clipper to dive very far south which doesn't happen very often! That's all I got to say about that..................... I say this winter will create it's own analog Unprecedented heat to begin November, unprecedented date for polar vortex splits, so on and so forth. I am just going to sit back, watch and enjoy either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 2 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said: This will be the winter for the clippers!! Congrats Midwest, N.Midatlantic, and Northeast, our only hope is for a clipper to dive very far south which doesn't happen very often! That's all I got to say about that..................... "Lakes Low" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 2 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said: This will be the winter for the clippers!! Congrats Midwest, N.Midatlantic, and Northeast, our only hope is for a clipper to dive very far south which doesn't happen very often! That's all I got to say about that..................... If that's the case it'll be the worst of all. Cold and dry. Lots of wind too, which will fan wildfires like crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, jshetley said: If that's the case it'll be the worst of all. Cold and dry. Lots of wind too, which will fan wildfires like crazy. Yes Sir, I hope I'm wrong, which it was just a guess anyway to see how good my gut is at weather! lol It's DRY as a bone up here too! Sure would love to see a good soaker.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 The almanac says winter cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 1 hour ago, Bhs1975 said: The almanac says winter cancel. SKIERS REJOICE! Farmers’ Almanac is also red-flagging February 16-19, when a small, but intense storm develops near the Virginia Capes and delivers a heavy snowstorm with strong winds for parts of the Tennessee Valley, through western North Carolina, the Virginias, Maryland, and Delaware northeast into southern New England – some locations could receive 1 to 2 feet of accumulation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 Went to look at the other almanac...(old farmers almanac) and its a bit weird they say late November will feature one of our best chances for Snow in the South-East region. They have coastal rain and inland snow for November 26-27th. Then we have to wait until mid February and mid March lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 17 hours ago, Jon said: That just screams front-loaded winter to me. I feel anyone forecasting a back-loaded winter is going to be wrong, unless the entirety is cold, which I highly doubt. My guess is front loaded too. But, is interesting the two other high sce nina winters (71/14) were backloaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 21 hours ago, griteater said: Yeah, that's a good one Pack. Crazy GFS run from last night showing a record weak PV. Interesting composite supporting pattern change many models are hitting on for last half of Nov from @wxjay on twitter.... Weak PV + MJO Phase 7-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 This modeled pattern change seems like the same ole same ole...warmth. I posted this a few weeks back, for November the majority of weak nina's were BN for the central/east, only 4/19 that I could find were AN (2011, 2005, 1985, 1964). Will be interesting to see if the final 10 days of Nov can really see a change. But as things stand now it's a good chance that Nov will be another AN for much of the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 43 minutes ago, packbacker said: This modeled pattern change seems like the same ole same ole...warmth. I posted this a few weeks back, for November the majority of weak nina's were BN for the central/east, only 4/19 that I could find were AN (2011, 2005, 1985, 1964). Will be interesting to see if the final 10 days of Nov can really see a change. But as things stand now it's a good chance that Nov will be another AN for much of the conus. Yeah I agree pack. This month looks like above normal now. The Pacific jet is just wrecking the pattern . It's driving warm air into Canada so we don't torch alone lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 Here's the 12z GFS at 144 (not much better): Here it is at 240 (some improvement due to the big cut-off): And lastly, at 384 (better than now, but nothing too spectacular...maybe it's trying): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 But the Euro looks good in the stratosphere CR....that's all that matters. These stratosphere watches never end well do they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 The weather channel had an interesting read on weather.com about the huge expanse of snow pack across Russia and Siberia and how it can affect our wintet here in the States. Take it for what it's worth but interesting . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 16 minutes ago, griteater said: But the Euro looks good in the stratosphere CR....that's all that matters. These stratosphere watches never end well do they? It's on the wrong side!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 Lol Grit! When we start banking on the stratosphere, you know we're in trouble. That's like one of the last nails in the coffin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 25 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Lol Grit! When we start banking on the stratosphere, you know we're in trouble. That's like one of the last nails in the coffin. Lol its ova! Already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 4, 2016 Share Posted November 4, 2016 Nov 28 is the latest first freeze on record at RDU. I wonder if we'll break the record this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 4, 2016 Share Posted November 4, 2016 19 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Lol Grit! When we start banking on the stratosphere, you know we're in trouble. That's like one of the last nails in the coffin. Why you and Grit hating on the strat! It's our only hope When was the last time that Oct/Nov had a stout Scand/Kara ridge... Edit: 1981 for one. That would make folks happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 4, 2016 Share Posted November 4, 2016 The Weather Channel is talking about the Siberian snow cover, and WRAL's Mike Maze has been talking about it on Facebook. https://weather.com/news/weather/news/snow-siberia-russia-united-states-cold?cm_ven=FB_WX_EC_110316_2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Winter forecast my friend and I worked on. https://m.facebook.com/Central-Eastern-NC-Weather-269149099872626/?ref=bookmarks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 I'll take the 00z euro look during the first of January and head to smashville Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 3 hours ago, snowlover91 said: Winter forecast my friend and I worked on. https://m.facebook.com/Central-Eastern-NC-Weather-269149099872626/?ref=bookmarks Thanks for posting and good luck with your forecast. Everyone seems to be going cool to start out winter. Someone needs to go against that and become the hero if it is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 You know, something I wonder about with regards to the last few decades of winter warming in the SE: is the warming more due to a greater prevalence of warm patterns, or is it more due to overall warming of both warm and cold patterns? Anecdotally it seems to me that the many of the "sucky" winters are associated with the persistence of some "sucky" pattern feature, such as a screaming Pacific jet or ferociously strong Bermuda high (looking at you last Christmas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 3 hours ago, griteater said: Thanks for posting and good luck with your forecast. Everyone seems to be going cool to start out winter. Someone needs to go against that and become the hero if it is warm. Larry Cosgrove doesn't foresee cold in the SE until at least Feb. Although I am beginning to wonder about the science content of his forecasts. https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/weatheramerica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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