jshetley Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 51 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Larry Cosgrove's winter forecast is out. Basically, he has Dec and Jan above normal temps and below normal precip for most of the SE. Feb turns colder and wetter, especially the latter half of the month, as well as March, due to strong blocking. Has most of us basically at normal or slightly than normal snowfall. In the "what could go wrong" category, the injection of a tropical cyclone into the pattern could influence blocking and get it going earlier than he's forecasting. That would be beneficial to us. Other than that, it looks pretty ho hum, with another late start to winter being forecast. This sounds a LOT like how the winter of 1988-89 went. If we got a repeat of that, Feb would be fairly nice in NC and upstate SC for winter weather. The drought would get much worse until Feb, but if the spring of next year was like 1989 the drought would be gone by May 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 24 minutes ago, FallsLake said: That's if you believe his forecast. He is opposite to many others by forecasting a backend winter. The only nod I can give is we've been seeing backend winters for the past few years. So as others have said, it's wise to go with persistence until you see a change. I think he may be right though, because I'm starting to think we may get a winter like 1988-89. That was a Feb and March winter around here and folks from Greenville NC northeast towards Norfolk VA would love it. The GA folks and most of SC would not like it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 On 10/28/2016 at 1:02 PM, pcbjr said: Allan has a well considered write-up/forecast: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/research/Winter2016-17Forecast.pdf Not sure I have ever seen one of his winter forecasts use the words "difficult to forecast," "uncertainty," and "low confidence" as much as this one. Sounds like this winter is a toss-up. Of course, last winter he predicted 100 to 150% of normal snowfall here, and sounded much more confident, but that didn't work out at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 I like unpredictable winters since they can sometimes yield the best results. If anything we have the -AO to look forward to if that trend continues. Just need to finally have some good blocking at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 I like the RaleighWx write up a lot. Background analysis is solid. Forecast conclusion is pretty close to mine. I am a little warmer overall South US. The month by month looks good also with a somewhat front loaded Dec-Feb period. Again I advise caution on the Siberian snow alone. Recent trends have a lot of high pressure, which improves the snow correlation. Low press is noted far eastern Siberia, but that would line up with Aleutian vs GOA. All that, I'm still not sold on North America early. First Siberian high dump is China this week. Sometimes they lead US weather. Other times they strand more weather patterns than the Cubs do base runners, lol. At any rate RaeighWx delivers a solid discussion and forecast IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 47 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: I like the RaleighWx write up a lot. Background analysis is solid. Forecast conclusion is pretty close to mine. I am a little warmer overall South US. The month by month looks good also with a somewhat front loaded Dec-Feb period. Again I advise caution on the Siberian snow alone. Recent trends have a lot of high pressure, which improves the snow correlation. Low press is noted far eastern Siberia, but that would line up with Aleutian vs GOA. All that, I'm still not sold on North America early. First Siberian high dump is China this week. Sometimes they lead US weather. Other times they strand more weather patterns than the Cubs do base runners, lol. At any rate RaeighWx delivers a solid discussion and forecast IMHO. Do you think we can turn around the pattern quicker if we get a weak Nina vs a neutral negative setup? Didn't know if that would stop the Nino hangover we are in now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 In the climate forum they're talking about the slow increase of arctic sea ice in October. But in total contrast, the northern hemisphere snow coverage is way above normal. I've read that low sea ice extent can increase the possibilities of -AO and we've heard about the studies of October snow cover increase in Siberia (..good things for our side of the hemisphere). End of October snow coverage: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Yes there is some correlation with low sea ice and blocking. Also it is not strange to have low ice and high snow, since the low ice allows more evaporation. If higher than normal pressure can sustain over Siberia with that snow, the SAI may have a better chance. Regarding timing, I figure shorter term drivers like the AO will have more influence than weak Nina vs Nada. Finally the Euro weeklies and CFS disagree on quick cold front or longer cool spell, likely due to MJO forecast differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Thanks for the explanation nrgjeff. Really hoping that -AO can get established and take advantage of a cross polar flow down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 It obviously finished really high...Cohen was tweeting some stuff yesterday about snow cover being record breaking. He was going to update today talking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 This looks more promising then last winter. I believe this is the chart Grit likes to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 2 hours ago, packbacker said: It obviously finished really high...Cohen was tweeting some stuff yesterday about snow cover being record breaking. He was going to update today talking about it. Pack what is Cohens website ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Pack what is Cohens website ? http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Here's an article where Cohen talks about the Siberian snow in October and how it could affect us. He is going against the NOAA forecast for a warm and dry winter. I thought folks here were not really high on Cohen, though, and thought he was pretty off before with the winter forecasts here. http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/chill-siberia-bad-sign-us-winter-ahead-1589190?utm_content=bufferbd833&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 23 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Here's an article where Cohen talks about the Siberian snow in October and how it could affect us. He is going against the NOAA forecast for a warm and dry winter. I thought folks here were not really high on Cohen, though, and thought he was pretty off before with the winter forecasts here. http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/chill-siberia-bad-sign-us-winter-ahead-1589190?utm_content=bufferbd833&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer I think most of us are just leery of it just as we're leery of every other type of forecast indicator. But any indicator pointing towards a cold eastern US is still welcome. Dealing with how this winter will start, it wont be long now until we know if December will be starting off cold or warm. JB is currently hyping late Nov and early Dec as being cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Wonder what JB's forecast is? Cohen has pretty much lost credibility with me. If the SAI doesn't pan out this year, I hope I don't have to see his name next year. On the other hand, I hope the SAI does pan out and that he turns out to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Wonder what JB's forecast is? Cohen has pretty much lost credibility with me. If the SAI doesn't pan out this year, I hope I don't have to see his name next year. On the other hand, I hope the SAI does pan out and that he turns out to be correct. I wouldnt trust JB anymore than Cohen at this point. He is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 29 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Wonder what JB's forecast is? Cohen has pretty much lost credibility with me. If the SAI doesn't pan out this year, I hope I don't have to see his name next year. On the other hand, I hope the SAI does pan out and that he turns out to be correct. Joe Bastardi? Just updated his forecast Oct 26th. Near normal temps for the SE. Around normal to slightly above normal snow across far N SC, much of NC except the SE 1/4 or so. Below normal elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 30 minutes ago, JoMo said: Joe Bastardi? Just updated his forecast Oct 26th. Near normal temps for the SE. Around normal to slightly above normal snow across far N SC, much of NC except the SE 1/4 or so. Below normal elsewhere. I always laugh when anyone predicts below normal snowfall for Georgia. That pretty much means we won't be getting any snow at all. Honestly I don't see the point in predicting snow fall in an area that averages maybe 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 4 hours ago, JoMo said: Joe Bastardi? Just updated his forecast Oct 26th. Near normal temps for the SE. Around normal to slightly above normal snow across far N SC, much of NC except the SE 1/4 or so. Below normal elsewhere. Awesome thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 6 hours ago, packbacker said: http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Thanks Pack! You the man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 Per Rutgers climate site...Oct 2016 finished 3rd overall in snow cover extent The top 5 SCE years with temps for those winters. Note, last Oct was 6th and was warmest winter I can recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 Not bad, Pack. Any idea how the SAI turned turned out this year? I tried going to aer.com this morning, but the site is offline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Not bad, Pack. Any idea how the SAI turned turned out this year? I tried going to aer.com this morning, but the site is offline. I don't know if Cohen has shared that yet, he mentioned in his blog he would soon. He stated in his blog the SAI was "more impressive" then the SCE so it must be really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 I think the best thing to take from the pattern and indicies are they might show you have a better than normal chance of getting a winter storm, but still doesn't mean it's going to happen. Kind of like Michael Jordan has a better chance of hitting a half court shot than I do, but it doesn't mean he's going to make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: I don't know if Cohen has shared that yet, he mentioned in his blog he would soon. He stated in his blog the SAI was "more impressive" then the SCE so it must be really good. Finally got the site to come up and read some of it. Here's a paragraph that provides a decent overview: In my mind what is not uncertain are the bullish signals for a cold winter from the three main winter weather predictors that I follow closely in October. First the predictor that I have researched the longest and most thoroughly - Eurasian snow cover had a truly impressive advance this past October. I project that the mean snow cover extent will be the fourth highest observed since 1972 (final value will probably be posted in the next few days at climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover). I have developed a new snow advance index (SAI with former colleague Justin Jones) that measures the advance of snow cover south of 60°N. The SAI I feel was even more impressive and I hope to share some of the statistics shortly. The second predictor that I like to follow is Arctic sea ice, especially in the Barents-Kara seas. Despite a quick rebound off the minimum, sea ice growth has been truly anemic and large areas in the Barents-Kara on the North Atlantic side and in the East Siberian, Chukchi and Beaufort seas on the North Pacific side remain ice free. Finally the third predictor that I follow is the development of the Siberian high. The Siberian high expanded strongly to the north and west during October. This is favorable to poleward heat flux or vertical Wave Activity Flux (WAFz) and the pattern was so conducive to WAFz it resulted (in my opinion) in a record strong WAFz to end the month and the current unprecedented PV split. Based on my experience all three, the extensive Eurasian snow cover, the low Arctic sea ice and strengthened Siberian high all favor a significant weakening of the PV in mid-winter followed by increased high latitude blocking and colder temperatures for Northern Eurasia including Europe and East Asia and the Eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 12 hours ago, packbacker said: Per Rutgers climate site...Oct 2016 finished 3rd overall in snow cover extent The top 5 SCE years with temps for those winters. Note, last Oct was 6th and was warmest winter I can recall. Hell froze over...Packbacker is posting cold analogs Kidding. Good stuff. Cohen said he'd publish the SAI if he reached 3,000 followers on twitter...haha. I think he'll end up posting it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 1 hour ago, Jon said: Hell froze over...Packbacker is posting cold analogs Kidding. Good stuff. Cohen said he'd publish the SAI if he reached 3,000 followers on twitter...haha. I think he'll end up posting it anyway. LOL...well it can't be AN forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 Based on this, it sounds like the SAI was maybe 2nd or 3rd highest ever (tho I'm speculating). 1976 was super high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 On 11/1/2016 at 11:26 AM, packbacker said: This looks more promising then last winter. I believe this is the chart Grit likes to use. Yeah, that's a good one Pack. Crazy GFS run from last night showing a record weak PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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