griteater Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Preliminary forecast from Judah Cohen's model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 ^ This guy has lost some credibility over the last couple of years. That said, I hope it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 I hope it's right too. Atlanta is going on nearly 3 years without snowfall of any significance. Of course that map wouldn't guarantee snow but it would give me hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 13 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I hope it's right too. Atlanta is going on nearly 3 years without snowfall of any significance. Of course that map wouldn't guarantee snow but it would give me hope. It's crazy to think of the difference in winter precip from Atlanta to the northern burbs the past few years. Of course everyone was shafted last year so I'm hoping we can make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 if you live 65 miles n/ne of Atl, you've seen snow in the past 3 years. ATL/Hartsfield is vastly different from your general vicinity. Often the difference from seeing snow from year to year in the ATL metro is just living in the northern burbs rather than the southern ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 24 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: ^ This guy has lost some credibility over the last couple of years. That said, I hope it's right. Yeah I'm not buying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 13 minutes ago, whamby said: if you live 65 miles n/ne of Atl, you've seen snow in the past 3 years. ATL/Hartsfield is vastly different from your general vicinity. Often the difference from seeing snow from year to year in the ATL metro is just living in the northern burbs rather than the southern ones. I was living south of I-20 my entire life until this past August. The most snow I've seen in the last 3 years was a brief light snow shower that barely gave a light dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said: I was living south of I-20 my entire life until this past August. ah, hence the screen name, gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 More basin wide nina developing and rising PDO. Not sure how CPC is calculating this or will calculate Oct PDO as neg. The jisao still had Sept as +PDO though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Like the SST similarities of Oct 83/95. Both of those winters get us Cohen model prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Of course with the warm streak we have been on...this seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 4 hours ago, griteater said: Preliminary forecast from Judah Cohen's model <snipped graphic> I hope it's right. I know he's not got a ton of credibility right now but honestly I am pretty much over this heat. 85 degrees here again this afternoon. Done baking. Snow or no, I'm long past ready for highs even in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 What Cohen is predicting isn't that far away from normal. -1 is not extreme and wouldn't guarantee snow for anyone. Don't let all of the pretty blue distract you too much. Bottom line: WE MAY NOT TORCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 23 hours ago, Cold Rain said: ^ This guy has lost some credibility over the last couple of years. That said, I hope it's right. It probably ends up the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 23 hours ago, whamby said: if you live 65 miles n/ne of Atl, you've seen snow in the past 3 years. ATL/Hartsfield is vastly different from your general vicinity. Often the difference from seeing snow from year to year in the ATL metro is just living in the northern burbs rather than the southern ones. Yeah you know, Atlanta is always a big topic when we get a winter storm, but Greater Atlanta is as large as the Upstate of South Carolina. There can just be a lot of difference from one end of it to the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 On 10/17/2016 at 1:19 PM, whamby said: they have a temporary forum up... Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 6 minutes ago, tonysc said: Where? http://yourweathernow.freeforums.net/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Well, NOAA released their winter outlook, and it doesn't look good for snow here. Here's the full outlook. http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-predicts-warmer-drier-south-and-cooler-wetter-north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 I can handle another golf winter. In fact, if it isn't going to be snowy it's my second most favorite type winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 They are going with typical La Nina climo. Must be buying that it will be stronger than progged on most of the models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Interesting seeing majority of neutral-neg to weak nino's are cold in Nov in the east. Right now, don't see much in the long term models showing the beginning of Nov BN. Though, -AO has been negative and could continue and PV starting off a little weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 9 minutes ago, jburns said: I can handle another golf winter. In fact, if it isn't going to be snowy it's my second most favorite type winter. Same here. If it's not going to snow, then it might as well be warm. Of course, last winter most folks were talking about how the pattern looked good for a lot of snow here, and that didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 On 9/20/2016 at 4:24 PM, griteater said: Here's what I've got for a seasonal model update for September (click on table for a larger view) October update: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Good to see the Euro trending cooler with a front loaded winter. December will be much different than last year if that is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 1 hour ago, GaStorm said: Good to see the Euro trending cooler with a front loaded winter. December will be much different than last year if that is right. December could be a torch and still be much different than last year. 5 degrees above normal in December would be very cold compared to last December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 As we've been making a run at a top 5 warmest October, I looked at snowfall for the following winter in those top 5 warmest Octobers. It may not mean nothing but here's the numbers: 1919-1920: 2.2" 1941-1942: 12.4" 1984-1985: 1.7" 1884-1885: 17.4" 1881-1882: 8.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 2 hours ago, Queencitywx said: As we've been making a run at a top 5 warmest October, I looked at snowfall for the following winter in those top 5 warmest Octobers. It may not mean nothing but here's the numbers: 1919-1920: 2.2" 1941-1942: 12.4" 1984-1985: 1.7" 1884-1885: 17.4" 1881-1882: 8.8" The run of record or near record warm months is impressive. With the majority of ninas having BN Nov for east I keep hoping to see signs of that on modeling. CFS today started to hint at that. Just want to get a BN streak going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) 10/24/16, 16:59 With NCAR_CESM king of the Summer forecast... it will be very interesting to see whether it will keep that crown for our upcoming Winter pic.twitter.com/vJO3NzB7FR None look very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 If you have not read it yet DT has some good info on the current SAI and what possibly could be in store for us this coming winter. I'm very skeptical of the SAI but this seems to be in a more weak, neutral state. So we will see. I can tell you so far the AO has been in the solid negative range for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 11 minutes ago, Met1985 said: If you have not read it yet DT has some good info on the current SAI and what possibly could be in store for us this coming winter. I'm very skeptical of the SAI but this seems to be in a more weak, neutral state. So we will see. I can tell you so far the AO has been in the solid negative range for awhile. The AO is always solid negative until we get to winter. Then it shoots triple bogey after triple after triple.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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