stadiumwave Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 57 minutes ago, griteater said: True, the correlation isn't as strong when looking solely at weak Ninas....however, the +NAO bias for Jan-Feb remains even in weak Nina years. Here are the central Pacific, cool ENSO winters with NAO numbers. 2nd chart is for weak Nina only. Wow! Look at the difference the strength makes. Every single weak Nina had at least one month of a -NAO average. Would be interesting to see the same chart on EPO & AO. Very helpful! Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Wasn't 1995-96 a nina? Edit: sorry I didn't read: "central Pacific" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 47 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: Wow! Look at the difference the strength makes. Every single weak Nina had at least one month of a -NAO average. Would be interesting to see the same chart on EPO & AO. Very helpful! Thanks Exactly what I was gonna bring up. How many had that big warm blob in the goa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 3 hours ago, griteater said: True, the correlation isn't as strong when looking solely at weak Ninas....however, the +NAO bias for Jan-Feb remains even in weak Nina years. Here are the central Pacific, cool ENSO winters with NAO numbers. 2nd chart is for weak Nina only. Look at the DEC/JAN of the weak Central Nina's since 1950...yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 ^ Looks like rain for the SE...that is, if anything falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 CFSv2 and UK both agree on setting up max cool anomaly east of 150W...FWIW. We are on a tremendous +NAO streak for winter months over the past 5-6 years so regardless of where the coldest anomaly sets up it's hard to imagine a winter with a -NAO. I think the SER is going to be real problematic with that atlantic...stating the obvious. Also, +PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: ^ Looks like rain for the SE...that is, if anything falls. Since 1950 we have had 5 two year nino's and the following winter after we averaged 14" . One year was only 6", but the other 4 were all big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: Since 1950 we have had 5 two year nino's and the following winter after we averaged 14" . One year was only 6", but the other 4 were all big. I think we score this year. Not sold on any wall to wall cold or even a solid cold winter in the means, but I think we'll get one or two rogue storms that are favorably timed for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: I think we score this year. Not sold on any wall to wall cold or even a solid cold winter in the means, but I think we'll get one or two rogue storms that are favorably timed for a change. I think we are going to get sick of seeing storm after storm running up the apps with the big ole SER. Where we are slighly BN, then storm passes to our west, we warm up, then we cool back down after it passes. Just the kind of winter we like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 3 hours ago, packbacker said: I think we are going to get sick of seeing storm after storm running up the apps with the big ole SER. Where we are slighly BN, then storm passes to our west, we warm up, then we cool back down after it passes. Just the kind of winter we like. I'm hoping for CAD to save the day. Should be plenty of cold air to our north (nina pattern), we just need to be able to tap it (with a strong high) for those storms that try to run to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 4 hours ago, packbacker said: I think we are going to get sick of seeing storm after storm running up the apps with the big ole SER. Where we are slighly BN, then storm passes to our west, we warm up, then we cool back down after it passes. Just the kind of winter we like. I want to agree and you probably are right. But my gut feeling says after a long dry hot summer our pattern turns around or we could just continue the sucktastic winters we have been having lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 2 hours ago, SimeonNC said: The October update for JAMSTEC reverts back to a weak nina/neutral pattern along with a strong +PDO but is still bent on torching the entire Continental U.S with only slightly cooler anomalies for the East Coast. With this combined with the above average Siberian snow cover and the unusually weak PV, either the JAMSTEC is noticing something or it's totally out to lunch. It is noticing winters after a 'Cane season like we've been through and may still be in .... Just sayin' Now to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 13 minutes ago, pcbjr said: It is noticing winters after a 'Cane season like we've been through and may still be in .... Just sayin' Now to lunch Which seasons are you looking at? Hurricane Cleo was brought up as analog to Matt last week - 1964. That winter RDU had 13" of snow. 1995 was active cane season and that winter was banner cold/snowy. I am sure there are several clunkers too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 soil temps taking a beating in the mountains/foothills and had me question how does one take soil temp in eastern NC if all land is underwater in UR yard? can u still do that explain process now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 So NOAA is back with the La Nina watch. Ha. Funny. Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Nina, hurricanes, dry or wet pattern, I don't think it really matters. Winter is going to do what it's going to do here. We have seen in the past when the players on the field look great, but they still end up with a losing record. Last winter was a prime example. I remember most everyone hyping the pattern and indicies we had going into winter and saying we would probably have above average snowfall here. Didn't happen. Now, there are things that give us a better chance of having a big winter with snow/ice. However, that better chance doesn't guarantee results. And there are times when things looked bad overall for winter, but we end up getting one huge storm. The best thing is to expect another below average winter until we see otherwise. Maybe we'll get lucky and have a lot of snow this winter. But with the way it has been so wet in central and eastern NC, I bet this winter ends up bone dry here. Hopefully, if that is the case it ends up warmer, too, and not bitter cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 15 hours ago, packbacker said: Which seasons are you looking at? Hurricane Cleo was brought up as analog to Matt last week - 1964. That winter RDU had 13" of snow. 1995 was active cane season and that winter was banner cold/snowy. I am sure there are several clunkers too. Oh I'll take any winter in the 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 7 minutes ago, griteater said: Hopefully that is about to end. Grid forecast for Barrow: This Afternoon Cloudy, with a high near 38. East wind around 25 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. East wind around 25 mph. Friday Areas of freezing fog after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 33. East wind around 20 mph. Friday Night A 20 percent chance of snow showers after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Northeast wind 15 to 20 mph. Saturday A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Northeast wind around 15 mph. Saturday Night A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Sunday A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Sunday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Monday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Monday Night A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 2 hours ago, griteater said: I'm not sure if it matiers but the AO has been very negative recently. Not sure if there is a correction there or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 Raysweather hot off the press....dry precip drought and near normal temp w/ less snow area wide. 8" for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 1 hour ago, NWNC2015 said: Raysweather hot off the press....dry precip drought and near normal temp w/ less snow area wide. 8" for me. He opens with "We had an impressively warm summer and early fall. The first frost has not even occurred for most of the Southern Appalachians, with the exception of deeper valleys on the nights of October 11th and 12th. This year's "leaf season" is the latest in my 25 years living in Boone." http://www.averyweather.com/public/FearlessForecast.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 2 hours ago, NWNC2015 said: Raysweather hot off the press....dry precip drought and near normal temp w/ less snow area wide. 8" for me. You should be pleased with 8" in Wilkesboro. Seriously you live in NC not Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 Grit...it's early, but looks better then last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 12 hours ago, Avdave said: You should be pleased with 8" in Wilkesboro. Seriously you live in NC not Maine. Lol listen if I don't get 50 inches of snow I'm not happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 7 hours ago, packbacker said: Grit...it's early, but looks better then last winter? Better than seeing it rage positive, but yeah it's early....need to get to late Oct into Nov to see if there are any strong anomalies. The one I like looking at is the chart showing the amount of heat flux into the cold strat vortex... Here's what it looked like in Oct-Nov 2009 prior to the big -AO/-NAO winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 The impressive warmth that was in the southern GOA has definitely taken a beating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 Anybody know what happened over at talkweather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 12 minutes ago, tonysc said: Anybody know what happened over at talkweather? they have a temporary forum up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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