Winter 2016-17 discussion

[Snowless in Carrollton]

34 minutes ago, J.C. said:

We would basically see the setup we have today a lot, cool air locked behind the mountains with warm and humid air on the lee side.  Its just where our climate is now.

 

The front sure doesn't seem to have any problems crossing the mountains from VA northward. It's just so weird to see a front having this much trouble moving through this time of year. Typically, fronts race through and push all the way into FL in no time in the fall.

[Brick Tamland]

1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

My thinking is that there will be more storms cutting up along or west of the mountains. I've seen many maps depicting dryer than normal conditions for the SE, but wetter than normal for the Ohio valley. So we may see many cases of cold, warm up , rain/showers (frontal passage) ,and cold again. But not all the time...    

That's how most of our winters have been the last few years.

[Brick Tamland]

4 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

The front sure doesn't seem to have any problems crossing the mountains from VA northward. It's just so weird to see a front having this much trouble moving through this time of year. Typically, fronts race through and push all the way into FL in no time in the fall.

It seems what was typical here with regards to weather no longer applies.

[Cold Rain]

^ The steering flow is weaker the farther south you go.  There is a cutoff over the Great Lakes, meandering slowly south.  This isn't a typical fall-scenario cold front, propelled through by strong westerly/northwesterly flow.  Instead, it's associated with the upper low, which is just drifting south, cut off from the main flow.  I wouldn't expect this to be a common occurrence this fall:

[Met1985]

3 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

The front sure doesn't seem to have any problems crossing the mountains from VA northward. It's just so weird to see a front having this much trouble moving through this time of year. Typically, fronts race through and push all the way into FL in no time in the fall.

Not really for this time of year.  I would say we see a higher chance Of what we see currently than having fronts racing through this time of the year. Also we have had high pressure locked in over the SE a good bit of September.  It takes a lot to move that high. Our local news said we had all but one day above averge on temps. I think we where running some 2 to 3 degrees above average for this month. Also this is our first true cold front of the season so this does not surprise me at all. It's a gradual step down process for us in the SE.

[Met1985]

3 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

^ The steering flow is weaker the farther south you go.  There is a cutoff over the Great Lakes, meandering slowly south.  This isn't a typical fall-scenario cold front, propelled through by strong westerly/northwesterly flow.  Instead, it's associated with the upper low, which is just drifting south, cut off from the main flow.  I wouldn't expect this to be a common occurrence this fall:

I didn't catch this before my post. But yeah what CR says. 

[FallsLake]

For what it's worth, Siberian snow cover has really taken off:

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

 

[griteater]

Accu Weather Winter Forecast...

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

15 minutes ago, griteater said:

Accu Weather Winter Forecast...

How did this verify, nation wide?

 

[griteater]

3 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

How did this verify, nation wide?

Hit and miss I'd say, but not a disaster.  The map alone is obviously pretty vague.

[Silas Lang]

Honestly Accuweather's forecast looks pretty similar to what we are experiencing now. Warmer than average with not a whole lot of precipitation.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Boy, if accuweather is right we are in for yet another disastrous winter. This has been by far the worst decade for snow in my lifetime in this area. Considering we don't average much as it is, I'm afraid with global warming you can kiss snow goodbye forever in GA in the not too distant future. I love how areas that hardly get any snow are expected to have below normal snowfall while areas that typically receive copious amounts of snow will be above normal. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

[whamby]

Parts of N/ Georgia have seen well above normal snowfall this decade. 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15, all were above normal for NW Georgia. 

[pcbjr]

I'll keep harping on this until I'm told to just shut up ---- look at the years since 1980 with hurricanes (not TS's), into the Fla panhandle, Big Bend to Cedar Key area - they have largely been followed by warm winters. Not scientific but an observation.

[tonysc]

18 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Boy, if accuweather is right we are in for yet another disastrous winter. This has been by far the worst decade for snow in my lifetime in this area. Considering we don't average much as it is, I'm afraid with global warming you can kiss snow goodbye forever in GA in the not too distant future. I love how areas that hardly get any snow are expected to have below normal snowfall while areas that typically receive copious amounts of snow will be above normal. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

Global warming.....LOL

[Snowless in Carrollton]

17 hours ago, whamby said:

Parts of N/ Georgia have seen well above normal snowfall this decade. 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15, all were above normal for NW Georgia. 

Parts of North GA have really lucked out. For Atlanta though, winters have been absolutely dreadful the last 5 winters with the exception of 13-14.

[WxMidwest]

For those looking for outlets who got 2015-16 correct, remember there was a wing event El Nino which basically meant the forecast was likely much easier to deduct by statistical models and long-range forecasting outlets. I don't believe one could use the performance from last winter as a correct gauge for the upcoming winter.

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, SimeonNC said:

Exactly, I think a lot of forecasts are gonna bust hard this year, and not in the way that everyone expects it to.

 

5 hours ago, SimeonNC said:

Exactly, I think a lot of forecasts are gonna bust hard this year, and not in the way that everyone expects it to.

If there are big busts for this winter, the snow and cold fans in the northeast won't like it. Every winter forecast I've seen come out so far is for a colder and snowier than normal northeast...

[griteater]

Thoughts on the mid-atlantic winter from Roger Smith...

21 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I would expect a variable but at times very cold winter with several snowstorms and above average snowfall totals.

The Pacific is shaping up to be zonal and this can invite very strong arctic outbreaks as the Siberian-Alaskan-NW Canada connection tends to be strong as a result. 

A dominant feature of the winter is likely to be extreme cold in central Canada and the northern plains states. But I don't see a strong enough ridge-trough couplet to turn this into a 1949-50 style winter overall. 

So for predictions I will go Dec -1, Jan -3 and Feb n/n 

and about 125% of normal snowfall trending to 150% in southern VA and inland NC. 

Also encouraging, my research into energy peaks suggests a stronger modulation than most recent winters, meaning that very deep low pressure centers are likely to form at opportune times, and the storm tracks favored include one (not a dominant one) that begins around the eastern Gulf of Mexico and runs northeast past Cape Hatteras to New England. When that one cashes in on an energy peak there should be at least one blizzard for the region.

I do want to add that the pattern will be variable enough to include some record warmth and this may show up in late February and early March, so unlike some recent winters, this one probably won't be back-loaded. The best winter synoptics are likely to be in the second half of January. 

[packbacker]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Thoughts on the mid-atlantic winter from Roger Smith...

Wow...that's a nice read.  

Not sure we are going to get a central pac nina, looks like the warm water in the east is hanging on by a thread.  Don't know if east based or central based nina matters though.  For some reason I thought east based or basin wide was better...but guessing really.

 

[packbacker]

Have no clue if this is officially a +PDO or -PDO...you could argue for both.

 

 

[Brick Tamland]

We were overdue for a big hurricane, and we got one with Matthew. We're overdue for a big snow storm, too. Maybe we will get one this winter.

[griteater]

1 hour ago, packbacker said:

Wow...that's a nice read.  

Not sure we are going to get a central pac nina, looks like the warm water in the east is hanging on by a thread.  Don't know if east based or central based nina matters though.  For some reason I thought east based or basin wide was better...but guessing really.

Map of average SST anomalies over the last 4 weeks supports a central pacific nina.  In a typical central pac nina, the max cool anomaly sets up generally west of 150W during the months of Sept-Oct, and stays there through the winter.

 

There is a paper that shows that a Central Pac Nina correlates with a +NAO, while an East Pac Nina correlates with a -NAO 

 

That paper contains data for Ninas back to the 1950's.  I have done my own research for years prior to 1950 and found that the Central Pac, Cool ENSO to +NAO correlation remains strong prior to 1950...on the flip side, I found that the East Pac, Cool ENSO to -NAO correlation wasn't as strong prior to 1950...it was actually strongest in post 1950 years during Cool ENSO years that were official Ninas.

[griteater]

Saw the Euro model forecast for Dec-Feb (around minute 58 at this link if you are in to that kind of thang)

Here's how I would interpret it for the southeast:

Dec: -EPO ridging thru and north of Alaska, solidly negative AO/NAO...below normal temps in SE

Jan: Weak East Pacific ridge / -NAO...near normal temps in SE

Feb: Zonal flow / weak SE ridging...above normal temps in SE

[FallsLake]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Saw the Euro model forecast for Dec-Feb (around minute 58 at this link if you are in to that kind of thang)

Here's how I would interpret it for the southeast:

Dec: -EPO ridging thru and north of Alaska, solidly negative AO/NAO...below normal temps in SE

Jan: Weak East Pacific ridge / -NAO...near normal temps in SE

Feb: Zonal flow / weak SE ridging...above normal temps in SE

A front loaded winter would be great. I would love to get a winter event before (or at) Christmas. And a normal January can still bring winter threats.  

[NWNC2015]

5 hours ago, Brick Tamland said:

We were overdue for a big hurricane, and we got one with Matthew. We're overdue for a big snow storm, too. Maybe we will get one this winter.

actually since eastern and central has been wasting precip, the snow will be focused over western NC where the atmosphere doesn't have to recover for many years.i could go into this further shoot me a pm and i will have a pdf hot off the press explaining this

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, griteater said:

Map of average SST anomalies over the last 4 weeks supports a central pacific nina.  In a typical central pac nina, the max cool anomaly sets up generally west of 150W during the months of Sept-Oct, and stays there through the winter.

 

There is a paper that shows that a Central Pac Nina correlates with a +NAO, while an East Pac Nina correlates with a -NAO 

 

That paper contains data for Ninas back to the 1950's.  I have done my own research for years prior to 1950 and found that the Central Pac, Cool ENSO to +NAO correlation remains strong prior to 1950...on the flip side, I found that the East Pac, Cool ENSO to -NAO correlation wasn't as strong prior to 1950...it was actually strongest in post 1950 years during Cool ENSO years that were official Ninas.

Good stuff thanks for posting that

[pcbjr]

7 hours ago, Brick Tamland said:

We were overdue for a big hurricane, and we got one with Matthew. We're overdue for a big snow storm, too. Maybe we will get one this winter.

I would really like to see a composite that shows anything but normal to above normal with a 'Cane season like we've seen - over the Dec - Feb spread. I can find short periods of cold and snow - but very transient to say the least - and mostly warm. I've tried and cannot find one/any that gives any winter of even moderate consequence. But I'd love to be proven 100% wrong. Be kind if I am wrong, btw  :~)

[stadiumwave]

20 hours ago, griteater said:

Map of average SST anomalies over the last 4 weeks supports a central pacific nina.  In a typical central pac nina, the max cool anomaly sets up generally west of 150W during the months of Sept-Oct, and stays there through the winter.

 

There is a paper that shows that a Central Pac Nina correlates with a +NAO, while an East Pac Nina correlates with a -NAO 

 

That paper contains data for Ninas back to the 1950's.  I have done my own research for years prior to 1950 and found that the Central Pac, Cool ENSO to +NAO correlation remains strong prior to 1950...on the flip side, I found that the East Pac, Cool ENSO to -NAO correlation wasn't as strong prior to 1950...it was actually strongest in post 1950 years during Cool ENSO years that were official Ninas.

 

The strength of the NINA means everything as far as how much of a driver it is. On the graph about NAO the research is skewed if it's a weak Nina. Very important to remember that. But great post!

[griteater]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

The strength of the NINA means everything as far as how much of a driver it is. On the graph about NAO the research is skewed if it's a weak Nina. Very important to remember that. But great post!

True, the correlation isn't as strong when looking solely at weak Ninas....however, the +NAO bias for Jan-Feb remains even in weak Nina years.  Here are the central Pacific, cool ENSO winters with NAO numbers.  2nd chart is for weak Nina only.