packbacker Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 On 11/8/2016 at 4:50 PM, GaStorm said: Last year he was way off for the SE from what I remember. I think it's safe to say this winter will also be tough to forecast as well. Expand JB looks for reasons to forecast cold and for him to back off and go warmer and less snowy should tell us something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 On 11/8/2016 at 4:50 PM, Met1985 said: Today's weeklies apparently look about as ugly as can be. blowtorch for most of the country with the big vortex in the bering sea directing traffic. One run though . Expand I saw them on twitter. Yikes...we thought last winter was bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 On 11/8/2016 at 4:57 PM, packbacker said: JB looks for reasons to forecast cold and for him to back off and go warmer and less snowy should tell us something. Expand Or maybe he was burned too many times and finally decided to back off. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 On 11/8/2016 at 4:57 PM, packbacker said: I saw them on twitter. Yikes...we thought last winter was bad. Expand Yeah its one run. They where showing cold know warm. Maybe just the up and down from a crazy pattern fixing to happen or the start of a trend. We will see Thursday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 On 11/8/2016 at 4:57 PM, packbacker said: I saw them on twitter. Yikes...we thought last winter was bad. Expand On 11/8/2016 at 4:50 PM, Met1985 said: Today's weeklies apparently look about as ugly as can be. blowtorch for most of the country with the big vortex in the bering sea directing traffic. One run though . Expand Yeah, I highly doubt those weeklies verify. We've freaked out about weeklies mid-November before...patience everyone, they've busted terribly in the past. The problem I have with weeklies is people hold them to a very high standard, they're still a 46-day weekly ensemble forecast...never take them verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 JB sounded pretty mad/angry/confused on his vid this morning. Says he's going to have to consult with Joe D and Downs about some stuff. FWIW, the Euro parallel weeklies looked like a -PNA, which isn't good news for your area if you like cold and snow of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 On 11/8/2016 at 6:18 PM, Jon said: Yeah, I highly doubt those weeklies verify. We've freaked out about weeklies mid-November before...patience everyone, they've busted terribly in the past. The problem I have with weeklies is people hold them to a very high standard, they're still a 46-day weekly ensemble forecast...never take them verbatim. Expand No panic here. But it's hard to justify any optimism around a pattern change to a colder pattern anywhere in the foreseeable future. Nothing is legitimately pointing to it. We have a long way to go until December. And we have a long way to go beyond that to April. It will get cold at some point. But outside of some strat stuff and Siberian snow flurries, we're pretty much in continuation mode until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 I try to only look at the op run LR GFS 200hrs and beyond, just to get idea of the where the players might be lining up. Right now, Thanksgiving week looks like a sweltering torch. Hope that changes but we all know that warm forecasts even LR tend to produce quite well around both our regions. I know its an op run and very LR but theme seems to be Pac air, zonal flow, dry, and generally all the things we hate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Case in point....our step-down into winter: Now: In 16 days: ...that is, if you believe the GFS. If you factor in persistence, this prog becomes a more valid option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 On 11/8/2016 at 4:41 PM, packbacker said: Jon - I can't remember a winter where every single seasonal model is warm for the conus. Even JB updated his forecast and backed off of his early season thinking. For us he has Dec cold but Jan slightly AN with Feb neutral. He also backed off snow forecast. There isn't a lot weak Nina's that are AN for Nov (4 of 19) and only one weak Nina (05/06) that was AN for both Oct/Nov. I went back and took a quick look at how many BN months we have had since March 2014....answer is 2. There was a couple of other months that were neutral though. That is bleak...warm is kicking ass and taking names right now. Look what happened at the winters following the last super Nino...maybe a price to be paid for the still very warm SST's. For the record I don't think we blowtorch this winter but it is on the table. I posted last week how the top 5 SCE winters were fairly extreme for cold/winter. Hopefully that wins out. Expand I'd have to go pull out my data and see if I have any interesting maps on the Strong Nino to Weak Nina flips, I think I do - just at work right now. The good thing is despite how good even the ECMWF is, the 10-day forecast has a verification rate at 500mb in the NH of 51% as a 30-day average. I can almost guarantee a 46-day ensemble has about a 20% verif rate or worse, not sure if there is data on that but I doubt it's anything to shake a stick at (is that a saying?) Anyway, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 On 11/8/2016 at 6:38 PM, Jon said: I'd have to go pull out my data and see if I have any interesting maps on the Strong Nino to Weak Nina flips, I think I do - just at work right now. The good thing is despite how good even the ECMWF is, the 10-day forecast has a verification rate at 500mb in the NH of 51% as a 30-day average. I can almost guarantee a 46-day ensemble has about a 20% verif rate or worse, not sure if there is data on that but I doubt it's anything to shake a stick at (is that a saying?) Anyway, we'll see. Expand Agree that any one seasonal doesn't have great verification but when they all point towards warmth that is quite the consensus. Also, of the past 19 weak -enso's (post 1950) only 4 were warm in Nov and only 1 was warm for Oct/Nov. So far we are not taking the path that previous cold/snowy weak ninas have. Again, I am hopeful for a better winter then last but don't see anything close to 13/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 On 11/8/2016 at 6:57 PM, packbacker said: Agree that any one seasonal doesn't have great verification but when they all point towards warmth that is quite the consensus. Also, of the past 19 weak -enso's (post 1950) only 4 were warm in Nov and only 1 was warm for Oct/Nov. So far we are not taking the path that previous cold/snowy weak ninas have. Again, I am hopeful for a better winter then last but don't see anything close to 13/14. Expand Yeah, consensus does have some credibility. Speaking of 13/14 - Did you see the Euro weeklies from 11/1/13 busted horribly and called for a torch for Dec that winter? Click to view: https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/796009528903036932 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 It's funny, today on JBs video, he showed all the big indices we look at for cold, the AO, NAO, etc, were favoring cold after about the next 10 days, but then he shows the temp outlook from the models, for the same time frame, and it was blow torch city! He says the models are wrong and not the indicies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 On 11/8/2016 at 7:11 PM, mackerel_sky said: It's funny, today on JBs video, he showed all the big indices we look at for cold, the AO, NAO, etc, were favoring cold after about the next 10 days, but then he shows the temp outlook from the models, for the same time frame, and it was blow torch city! He says the models are wrong and not the indicies! Expand MJO Phase 8/1 to end Nov doesn't support the warmth either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted November 8, 2016 Author Share Posted November 8, 2016 On 11/8/2016 at 7:08 PM, Jon said: Yeah, consensus does have some credibility. Speaking of 13/14 - Did you see the Euro weeklies from 11/1/13 busted horribly and called for a torch for Dec that winter. Expand Dec. 2013 was warmer than normal across most of the SE IIRC. Not torch level warmth, but RDU was +3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 So far in Nov the modeled cold for the east has been like...cringe worthy trough in the west with big east coast ridge on the EPS in the day 9+. I guess we can argue that why waste cold in Nov, save it for Jan/Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 On 11/8/2016 at 8:57 PM, packbacker said: So far in Nov the modeled cold for the east has been like...cringe worthy trough in the west with big east coast ridge on the EPS in the day 9+. I guess we can argue that why waste cold in Nov, save it for Jan/Feb. Expand Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Where is jb's updated winter outlook ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Its fairly evident now a BN Nov isn't happening and I would start to hedge my bets against a BN Dec...IMO. Maybe LC will be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 NOAA scientists declared the arrival of La Nina today, calling it present, but weak. It is predicted to be short-lived, possibly only lasting a few months. The climate phenomena will likely contribute to drier and warmer weather in the southern U.S. and wetter, cooler conditions in the Pacific Northwest and across to the northern tier of the nation this winter. Read more: www.noaa.gov/news/hello-la-nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 On 11/10/2016 at 3:06 PM, NWNC2015 said: NOAA scientists declared the arrival of La Nina today, calling it present, but weak. It is predicted to be short-lived, possibly only lasting a few months. The climate phenomena will likely contribute to drier and warmer weather in the southern U.S. and wetter, cooler conditions in the Pacific Northwest and across to the northern tier of the nation this winter. Read more: www.noaa.gov/news/hello-la-nina Expand Weak la nina is good for snow in the South right ? Wasn't the great winter of 2010-11 a weak la Nina ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 On 11/10/2016 at 4:00 PM, Snowless in Carrollton said: Weak la nina is good for snow in the South right ? Wasn't the great winter of 2010-11 a weak la Nina ? Expand No...it was mod/strong nina. But 2014/2012/2006 were weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 Well we can't blame our woes on a bad stratosphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 Jon - can you remove or crop that twitter image? It's making this page go into an auto scroll mode...I posted one like that the other day and had to fix it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 On 11/10/2016 at 4:00 PM, Snowless in Carrollton said: Weak la nina is good for snow in the South right ? Wasn't the great winter of 2010-11 a weak la Nina ? Expand A good amount of Weak La Ninas in the past have produced above average snowfall, at least for RDU. Don't have the data on hand...I'll update this post later with it. 83-84 to name one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 On 11/10/2016 at 7:06 PM, griteater said: Jon - can you remove or crop that twitter image? It's making this page go into an auto scroll mode...I posted one like that the other day and had to fix it Expand I changed it to link only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 On 11/10/2016 at 7:13 PM, Jon said: I changed it to link only Expand OK, I think it also applies to quoted posts...so pack would also have to remove it in his post where he quoted you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 On 11/10/2016 at 6:35 PM, packbacker said: No...it was mod/strong nina. But 2014/2012/2006 were weak. Expand 2011 was the last time we had a decent -NAO as far as I know so it didn't matter about it being a moderate nina. We are way overdue for some decent blocking this year that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 12Z Euro day 10 shows 8-12 degree below normal 850 temps across VA/NC/TN. -10 to -12 850's for the mountains! It has shown a cold shot around that time period for a while now. Could be the first real shot of upslope snow for WNC/ETN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 On 11/10/2016 at 8:02 PM, wncsnow said: 12Z Euro day 10 shows 8-12 degree below normal 850 temps across VA/NC/TN. -10 to -12 850's for the mountains! It has shown a cold shot around that time period for a while now. Could be the first real shot of upslope snow for WNC/ETN Expand Yep...and EPS agrees showing a legit -AO/-EPO pattern. Yes, trough off the west coast but still would be well BN with that pattern. Models have been inconsistent to say the least past day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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