Winter 2016-17 discussion

[lookingnorth]

Last year's winter discussion thread was started July 28, so it's past time for this winter's thread to start.

Here's what Accuweather said from a month ago. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-la-nina-forecast-fall-winter-2016-2017/58306249

Here are the NWS CPC forecast maps. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=5

Currently there is a 55-60% chance of la nina this winter. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

I've heard the PDO might return to a more neutral or cool phase and don't know much about the potential for Atlantic blocking this winter. Any ideas?

[SN_Lover]

This is bad luck XD

[LithiaWx]

Good to see this thread started up!  I'm going with a cooler than normal winter.  I'm usually a warminista so this isn't typical of me.  I don't see a frigid winter but signs point to cooler winter this time IMO.  

[Cold Rain]

Going warmer and less snow.  Can't go wrong with that forecast.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I'm predicting above normal snowfall around here simply because 4 out of the last 5 winters have been awful for snow. We are due for a good winter.

[griteater]

I'm seeing little in the way of indicators favoring a cold, snowy, & icy winter.  Then again, my calls over the years haven't been very good so maybe that's a positive.

[No snow for you]

12 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Going warmer and less snow.  Can't go wrong with that forecast.

You will be correct 9 out of 10 times making this call. 

[FallsLake]

I would say having the potential for a weak la-nina would favor a colder winter (..at least compared to last year). From everything I read we don't want a strong la-nina (..overall dryer/warmer pattern). But even if it ends up strong there should be cold air stationed to our north. All it would take is a good CAD setup to funnel some of that cold and we'd be in business.   

But who knows; I've learned to not think too far in the future for probabilities of winter storms. I'll just wait until December 1st and start checking the models from that point onwards. 

 

https://www.climate.gov/enso

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-la-nina-forecast-fall-winter-2016-2017/58306249

 

   

[NWNC2015]

I have learned that even in the perfect roof collapsing snow pattern, it doesn't produce. Only thing that does is the EURO within 12 hours. No El Nino, -NAO, cold air, precip, even matters. I will pour my heart and soul into the EURO's short term hands every time. No membership fee or guy with the PHD will ever fool me again.

[Bob Chill]

What's up SE folks! I haven't been posting much or thinking about winter this summer but I'm starting to get a hunch that at least DEC will be BN and not a torch. I hate waiting for back loaded stuff that may or may not happen. Drives me nuts. 

Anyways, I made a more detailed post in the MA sub earlier but the short version is I pulled Dec composites for the last 5 weak/mod Nina's following Nino's. We can work with something like this if it happens...

 

[FallsLake]

Thanks for stopping by Bob^^^. Using logic we in the SE would prefer a back loaded winter. It's much easier to get a storm in Jan/Feb with a good pattern than a storm in Dec with a good pattern.

But I don't like being logical; more of a dreamer when it comes to winter storms. So I say bring on a cold December and lets dream of a white Christmas.  

[FallsLake]

Here's a good early discussion:

 

[packbacker]

16 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Going warmer and less snow.  Can't go wrong with that forecast.

7 out of the past 12 winters here have been terrible here, it's been 13 years since we hit double digits, previous record was 7 years.  Betting that continues this winter.  Although...JB is going cold/snowy for east again this year.

Looking at analogs if you look at just weak nina's since 1980 it could be along winter.  But, if you restrict to +PDO there could be a chance.   Analogs are for suckers though

I quickly selected the analogs so pardon if I missed one.

 

 

[Cold Rain]

^ Aahh, you just answered my question from the other thread!  Verdict:. See you in 2017-2018.

[lookingnorth]

The 1983-84 analog is interesting, because that Christmas saw a high of 19 and a low of 4 at RDU. There was no snow, though.

Snowfall at RDU

1983-4: 6.9"

1984-5: 4.1"

1985-6: 0.9"

1995-6: 14.6"

1996-7: 0.4"

2000-1: 2.6"

2005-6: T

Avg: 4.2"

 

[packbacker]

58 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

^ Aahh, you just answered my question from the other thread!  Verdict:. See you in 2017-2018.

The nina/+PDO analogs aren't pretty for snow either, the cold analogs are dry too.  A cool/dry winter won't be the worst weather for around here, although I am sure we will get our patented sleet pellet.  Like Grit said above, nothings points to a snowy winter, although argument can be made for BN in temps with +PDO ruling.

 

 

 

[jshetley]

This winter will be a lot like the last 10 Days of December of this last winter, except it'll be MUCH drier with not much precip and little to no winter precip. The analog I expect is 1998-1999. Looking ahead, next summer will make this one seem cool and wet in comparison. Get ready to really bake.

[griteater]

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

^ Aahh, you just answered my question from the other thread!  Verdict:. See you in 2017-2018.

You'll want to go ahead and add another year.  2nd year Ninas are the bottom of the barrel in the SE.  By 2018-2019, we will be coming out of the post nino nina, and the sun will be put to sleep

[Cold Rain]

32 minutes ago, griteater said:

You'll want to go ahead and add another year.  2nd year Ninas are the bottom of the barrel in the SE.  By 2018-2019, we will be coming out of the post nino nina, and the sun will be put to sleep

Well that's just crappy.

[RubiksDestroyer]

37 minutes ago, griteater said:

You'll want to go ahead and add another year.  2nd year Ninas are the bottom of the barrel in the SE.  By 2018-2019, we will be coming out of the post nino nina, and the sun will be put to sleep

But what about 1999-2000? I'm calling it now: 2017-2018 will feature Carolina Crusher 2: Electric Boogaloo.

 

As for this winter, though... Meh.

[CaryWx]

When Bob Chill drops in just have to peak out from under my beach umbrella. Darn you Bob waking me from my reverse-hibernation. . If we could get some dry cold predictability I'll take it. Never seen too many arid winters in the SE so like CR touts, get the cold in here and I'll take my chances.  See you folks down the road 

[Shawn]

Well.  With the past couple of year's hype and analog fails, I will venture to guess it can't be much worse this time around.  Might be a good thing there isn't much showing a sign of a cold & snowy Winter this time around.

 

With that said, I'd be putting my money on drier and warmer.  It's the SE and that is usually the best option in any year.

[Avdave]

We will have some nice snows here. This isnt based on any science, analogs, etc etc. It always happens wherever I move to, the first year Im in that area for the first winter season it always snows. New Hampshire equaled a 75+" snowfall, moved to Northern VA and we had 90+" there so my first winter here it the Triangle, it will repeat. It is a lock!

[Bob Chill]

13 hours ago, CaryWx said:

When Bob Chill drops in just have to peak out from under my beach umbrella. Darn you Bob waking me from my reverse-hibernation. . If we could get some dry cold predictability I'll take it. Never seen too many arid winters in the SE so like CR touts, get the cold in here and I'll take my chances.  See you folks down the road 

Lol. Nah, stay under the umbrella drinking coronas. Any thoughts we have on winter are total guesses at this point. We can glean some possibilities but there always seems to be totally unforseen and unconventional characteristics to each winter. What that will mean this winter? No idea.

I'm not expecting anything exciting in my yard. I just want Dec to be cold with some sort of event during the holiday week. I think the MA has only had 1 out of the last 6 or 7 Christmases actually feel like winter. I'm not talking about snow either. We've had some roasters and/or mud puddles for sure. 

I suppose the odds are higher for a -nao this year. At least at times anyways. A raging pv and +nao has to burn out at some point...or not...lol

[Bob Chill]

14 hours ago, packbacker said:

The nina/+PDO analogs aren't pretty for snow either, the cold analogs are dry too.  A cool/dry winter won't be the worst weather for around here, although I am sure we will get our patented sleet pellet.  Like Grit said above, nothings points to a snowy winter, although argument can be made for BN in temps with +PDO ruling.

 

 

 

I'm not counting on a +pdo at all. It's been getting boot stomped and it's pretty standard during a nina to have a -pdo. We just don't want a raging -pdo. 

 

I personally hate nina climo storm tracks and you guys probably hate them much more. It's hard to get a storm to track underneath 40N and when they do they can easily do the transfer/whiff then crush NYC and north. 

Clippers and cutter/waa before the flip or dryslot are our best chances more often than not. If we start off Dec with a raging +ao/nao then shorts and tees will stay in rotation for most of the winter. Lol

[griteater]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not expecting anything exciting in my yard. I just want Dec to be cold with some sort of event during the holiday week. I think the MA has only had 1 out of the last 6 or 7 Christmases actually feel like winter. I'm not talking about snow either. We've had some roasters and/or mud puddles for sure. 

I suppose the odds are higher for a -nao this year. At least at times anyways. A raging pv and +nao has to burn out at some point...or not...lol

8 of the last 10 Decembers have been above normal in this area, many of them well above.  Blue and purple showing their colors over Greenland and Iceland

[Jon]

18 hours ago, lookingnorth said:

The 1983-84 analog is interesting, because that Christmas saw a high of 19 and a low of 4 at RDU. There was no snow, though.

Snowfall at RDU

1983-4: 6.9"

 

83-84 also had a Strong Nino in 1983 that weakened into a Nina, much like this year.

        DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ
1983	2.33	2.05	1.62	1.28	0.98	0.60	0.19   -0.14   -0.40   -0.67   -0.89   -0.90

2016	2.42	2.14	1.66	1.06	0.50

[jburns]

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

 Any thoughts we have on winter are total guesses at this point.

 

This far south, as far as winter weather is concerned, 12 hours out is a guess.

[FallsLake]

56 minutes ago, Jon said:

83-84 also had a Strong Nino in 1983 that weakened into a Nina, much like this year.

        DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ
1983	2.33	2.05	1.62	1.28	0.98	0.60	0.19   -0.14   -0.40   -0.67   -0.89   -0.90

2016	2.42	2.14	1.66	1.06	0.50

It wasn't a horrible winter:

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database_list.php?county=all&start_month=12&start_day=1&start_year=1983&end_month=3&end_day=2&end_year=1984

 

[Jon]

23 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Here's a good early discussion:

 

Interesting he used different longterm averages in his composite analog images (1981-2010 and 1950-1995 for his weak la nina composite)...no reason he should have done that unless he's pushing an agenda. 1950-1995 running mean is going to give you a torch map.