NWNC2015 Posted October 8, 2016 Author Share Posted October 8, 2016 0z GFS was comical. I can buy mountain snow showers this time of year. But that kind of cold for South Florida already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 The crappy thing about Matthew is that now Falls will probably put this in the "big October storm means we're gonna have a crappy winter" bucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 17 minutes ago, pcbjr said: I have looked at and created every composite and analogue I can find with a tropical fall like we've had, and can come up with at best normal; most are above normal for temps for the SE Dec - Feb. Just sayin' (and I pray to be wrong) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: The crappy thing about Matthew is that now Falls will probably put this in the "big October storm means we're gonna have a crappy winter" bucket. It was too early; it has to be within one week of Halloween (before or after). So we're safe for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 37 minutes ago, FallsLake said: It was too early; it has to be within one week of Halloween (before or after). So we're safe for now. Whew, ok good! I was getting worried about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 45 minutes ago, FallsLake said: It was too early; it has to be within one week of Halloween (before or after). So we're safe for now. Another thing. It did not produce any winter precip. Another reason we are safe so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 Noticed from NWS that NAO, AO are both progged to go negative next couple weeks with a positive PNA. But temps expected to be above if not well above in the eastern con us in the long range. Seems like quite a disconnect at play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 18 minutes ago, Jaguars said: Noticed from NWS that NAO, AO are both progged to go negative next couple weeks with a positive PNA. But temps expected to be above if not well above in the eastern con us in the long range. Seems like quite a disconnect at play here. It can take some time to feel the effects. Also those indices have greater affects once we're in the winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 With 62.7" of precip over the last year, RDU is having its wettest 12 months in recorded history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 16 hours ago, FallsLake said: It can take some time to feel the effects. Also those indices have greater affects once we're in the winter season. Great points, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 13, 2016 Author Share Posted October 13, 2016 it looks dry for the drought areas in NC. going to expand with no rain over the next week+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Euro is interesting day 7. Weak low coming up out of the gulf with a digging trough coming in with a Bermuda ridge. Maybe models have been showing this past couple of days but first day looking at model since last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 8 minutes ago, packbacker said: Euro is interesting day 7. Weak low coming up out of the gulf with a digging trough coming in with a Bermuda ridge. Maybe models have been showing this past couple of days but first day looking at model since last week. Models have actually been back and forth on something developing in the SW Caribbean or GOM for several days now, they had kind of "lost it" last couple of runs but Euro....oh boy. Digging trough would no doubt pull tropical moisture north, no need to worry about it at this point I guess but certainly bears watching I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Yea.. Euro shows a strong cutoff low setting up over the interior SE... possible severe threat Eastern SC, NC, VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 This looks rainy to me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 13 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: This looks rainy to me: Weather sure hasn't been boring for the SE past 6 weeks. Big cutoff that rots away in the SE sure would help those drought areas. Be a kick in teeth for eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Would be nice if that just sat in GA and didn't move east. You guys in NC and SC don't need any more headaches from flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 22 hours ago, packbacker said: Weather sure hasn't been boring for the SE past 6 weeks. Big cutoff that rots away in the SE sure would help those drought areas. Be a kick in teeth for eastern NC. Give us 5 more days then it can rain away as long as its not more than a few inches the rivers will be able to handle it.....we will take a month of no rain though if possible....most rivers west of I-95 are back to normal and once we crest it drains off quickly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 15, 2016 Author Share Posted October 15, 2016 lets kill those bugs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 15 hours ago, NWNC2015 said: lets kill those bugs Post like this are useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 16, 2016 Author Share Posted October 16, 2016 I would like a nice cold rain event. Interesting setup going into early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 12Z GFS had the high IMBY of 42-44 Nov 2, pretty much has all of NC/SC in the 40's for highs...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 15 hours ago, downeastnc said: 12Z GFS had the high IMBY of 42-44 Nov 2, pretty much has all of NC/SC in the 40's for highs...... IMO the pattern that sets up over the next 4-6 weeks has a very strong possibility of repeating this winter season. Let's pray for gulf lows and split flows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 3 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: IMO the pattern that sets up over the next 4-6 weeks has a very strong possibility of repeating this winter season. Let's pray for gulf lows and split flows. Lets hope so....... the runs are all back and forth with the timing and strength of the cold air surges....looks real transient so probably going to be a lot of back and forth...some runs will show highs in the 40-50 others 60-70's all in all not bad fall weather, pretty typical actually..I don't mind that so much I prefer that to all warm anyways lol.....l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 24, 2016 Author Share Posted October 24, 2016 encouraging for some cooler weather maybe round 2 for some MTN flakes in NOV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 6z GFS showing nice weather for Halloween; almost a CAD look with a high to the north but no overrunning precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 8 hours ago, NWNC2015 said: encouraging for some cooler weather maybe round 2 for some MTN flakes in NOV Hopefully it doesn't turn cold since it's useless without some precip. I'd like another November and December just like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Maybe some patchy frost tomorrow night, and it's looking good for Halloween. From RAH: .SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Wednesday night/... As of 330 PM Monday... Quiet and fairly uneventful through mid week. A portion of the surface ridge settles over central NC and modifies somewhat on Tue, then is followed by a weak reinforcing boundary dropping southward through NC Tue evening, and cool Canadian-rooted high pressure nosing in from the north through Wed. This ridge axis will be capped by an 850 mb anticyclone which will drift from the Mid South ESE across the Southeast states through Tue night before shifting off the coast late Wed. Further aloft, the mid levels will remain subsident and warming as a large vortex centered over the Canadian Maritimes and encompassing much of NE NOAM drifts NE and fills with weakening flow over our region as a shortwave ridge builds in from the west through Wed. All of this equates to little or no lift ormoisture and a generally weak surface flow. The only issue of concern is the presence of the chilly ridge axis overhead Tue night accompanied by clear skies and light winds, fostering radiational cooling and bringing about the risk of patchy frost. Statistical guidance has trended slightly cooler in spots, and with otherwise favorable conditions, will introduce patchy fog over portions of north central NC with lows in the upper 30s. Otherwise, expect somewhat cool highs Tue/Wed in the mid-upper 60s. The surface ridge will then shift east off the coast Wed night with a light returnflow helping to drive surface dewpoints back up through the 40s Wed night. Lows in the mid-upper 40s with mostly clear skies. -GIH .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... As of 350 PM Monday...Shortwave troughing will extend from south central Canada through the Great Lakes to the Mid South early Thu, shifting eastward Thu into Thu night. This will be accompanied by a strong surface low crossing the Great Lakes (and culminating in a triple point low over E PA and NJ) Thu through early Fri, and a trailing cold front that will drop SE through NC Thu night/early Fri. We will briefly be in the warm sector Thu, which will help drive up thicknesses to near or just above normal with temps expected to warm up into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Moisture depth does improve with PW reaching near 1.25", with decent mid level DPVA and minor upper divergence, although along-front mass convergence is apt to be small. Will retain chancepops Thu afternoon, peaking Thu night before departing early Fri morning. Projected instability appears minimal, and will keep it at just showers for now. The active northern stream across the north central and northeast CONUS/Mid-Atlantic persists through the rest of the week, with the aforementioned trough strengthening to a closed mid level low over MI Thu before shifting east and off the Northeast coast by early Sat, and another closed low close on its heels over the weekend. Another high pressure ridge builds into NC and overhead through Sat morning before shifting to our SE Sat afternoon in response to this fast flow. Expect minimal cooling Fri as the cooler thicknesses barely work into NC, then a warmup back into the 70s is anticipated Sat as we again get into return flow on the back side of the departing surface ridge. The next front pushing in from the north is likely to drop into or through NC on Sun or Sun night, but this too should be moisture-starved. Expect highs to cool back down a bit Sun and a bit more Mon, into the 65-70 range. The way-too-early outlook for Halloween night appears to be dry, with seasonable to slightly cooler than normal temps. -GIH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 2 hours ago, FallsLake said: Maybe some patchy frost tomorrow night, and it's looking good for Halloween. From RAH: .SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Wednesday night/... As of 330 PM Monday... Quiet and fairly uneventful through mid week. A portion of the surface ridge settles over central NC and modifies somewhat on Tue, then is followed by a weak reinforcing boundary dropping southward through NC Tue evening, and cool Canadian-rooted high pressure nosing in from the north through Wed. This ridge axis will be capped by an 850 mb anticyclone which will drift from the Mid South ESE across the Southeast states through Tue night before shifting off the coast late Wed. Further aloft, the mid levels will remain subsident and warming as a large vortex centered over the Canadian Maritimes and encompassing much of NE NOAM drifts NE and fills with weakening flow over our region as a shortwave ridge builds in from the west through Wed. All of this equates to little or no lift ormoisture and a generally weak surface flow. The only issue of concern is the presence of the chilly ridge axis overhead Tue night accompanied by clear skies and light winds, fostering radiational cooling and bringing about the risk of patchy frost. Statistical guidance has trended slightly cooler in spots, and with otherwise favorable conditions, will introduce patchy fog over portions of north central NC with lows in the upper 30s. Otherwise, expect somewhat cool highs Tue/Wed in the mid-upper 60s. The surface ridge will then shift east off the coast Wed night with a light returnflow helping to drive surface dewpoints back up through the 40s Wed night. Lows in the mid-upper 40s with mostly clear skies. -GIH .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... As of 350 PM Monday...Shortwave troughing will extend from south central Canada through the Great Lakes to the Mid South early Thu, shifting eastward Thu into Thu night. This will be accompanied by a strong surface low crossing the Great Lakes (and culminating in a triple point low over E PA and NJ) Thu through early Fri, and a trailing cold front that will drop SE through NC Thu night/early Fri. We will briefly be in the warm sector Thu, which will help drive up thicknesses to near or just above normal with temps expected to warm up into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Moisture depth does improve with PW reaching near 1.25", with decent mid level DPVA and minor upper divergence, although along-front mass convergence is apt to be small. Will retain chancepops Thu afternoon, peaking Thu night before departing early Fri morning. Projected instability appears minimal, and will keep it at just showers for now. The active northern stream across the north central and northeast CONUS/Mid-Atlantic persists through the rest of the week, with the aforementioned trough strengthening to a closed mid level low over MI Thu before shifting east and off the Northeast coast by early Sat, and another closed low close on its heels over the weekend. Another high pressure ridge builds into NC and overhead through Sat morning before shifting to our SE Sat afternoon in response to this fast flow. Expect minimal cooling Fri as the cooler thicknesses barely work into NC, then a warmup back into the 70s is anticipated Sat as we again get into return flow on the back side of the departing surface ridge. The next front pushing in from the north is likely to drop into or through NC on Sun or Sun night, but this too should be moisture-starved. Expect highs to cool back down a bit Sun and a bit more Mon, into the 65-70 range. The way-too-early outlook for Halloween night appears to be dry, with seasonable to slightly cooler than normal temps. -GIH I sure as hell hope so for frost, more frost equals less allergy issues for me. Would be nice to clean out my sinuses finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 Well if Nov is going to finish BN it's going to have to be frigid the last half. First 7-10 days looks solidly AN. When will this end.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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