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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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9 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

 

No flipping kidding!  The euro has changed as much as the GFS has. It has been very inconsistent with this upcoming pattern. Currently both the gfs and euro look to cool things down but in a completly different way lol. Seems like model madness has started early this year.

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16 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

No flipping kidding!  The euro has changed as much as the GFS has. It has been very inconsistent with this upcoming pattern. Currently both the gfs and euro look to cool things down but in a completly different way lol. Seems like model madness has started early this year.

I haven't even seen the euro yet. What did it look like?

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25 minutes ago, Jaguars said:

they may have been on to something, SE Ridge apparently will have to blasted out by a major pattern change

the 12Z CMC run today is pretty much average to even a few below average days for a lot of the SE.....the pattern is changing, to a more transitional flow....of course being in Florida there will be less effect down that way. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=seus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016092412&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=100

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6 hours ago, downeastnc said:

the 12Z CMC run today is pretty much average to even a few below average days for a lot of the SE.....the pattern is changing, to a more transitional flow....of course being in Florida there will be less effect down that way. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=seus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016092412&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=100

Looks good for NC

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1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

I'd say they'll be done early this week and we'll ride off into fall. 

I agree.  This next week looks absolutely fabulous temp wise. Dropping from the middle 80s to around 70 by mid week then the upper 60s by the end of the week with lows probably from 40 to 45 degrees.  It will be absolutely marvelous! 

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Over the years I've been to a few conferences in San Diego. The below is the forecast for RDU next week. It's also what a San Diego forecast would look like (notice the difference in highs and lows):

Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Calm wind.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. Light east wind.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.
Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 73.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 74.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 73.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.
 

 

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From RAH (this is what I like to hear):

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM Wednesday...

Based on the NHC forecast, Matthew should get kicked eastward on
Sunday, with it`s fate there after still up in the air, as some
track models keep the hurricane moving eastward across the Atlantic
while the GFS and the ECMWF reduce the hurricane`s forward speed
with a southward/southeastward turn.

With Matthew moving away from land, this should lead to dry
breezy/windy conditions on Sunday as a ~1030 MB Canadian Sfc high
building south into the area will make for a tight pressure
gradient. In fact, GFS bufr soundings at KFAY suggest 40 to 45 kts
at the top of the mixed layer late Sunday morning and into the early
afternoon, potentially flirting with wind advisory criteria across
the southeastern zones.  Otherwise, CAA Sunday night could support
of the coolest readings we`ve seen this season, with overnight lows
possibly getting down into the mid to upper 40s early next week
.

Dry seasonable temperatures should persist through mid week
underneath zonal flow aloft.
 

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