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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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NWS days 5, 6, & 7 for my grid:

Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.
 
From RAH:
Strong cold air advection in the wake of the back-door front Sunday-
Sunday night will bring noticeably cooler and drier/less humid air
into the area early next week. However, this cool down will be short-
lived
with southerly return flow and ridging aloft quickly building
back in by late Tuesday/Wednesday.
 
Dang it!
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2 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Yep nice little back door front/wedge for NC next week and then a for real cool shot, I cant wait, first light frost chances for most of the western 1/3 of NC and I am sure a decent frost/freeze higher up in the mts.....

gfs_T2m_seus_47.png

 

 

The 18z is warmer. No 30's into NC on it through 384. 40's in NC and mostly 50's in SC, but it's still much cooler than it is now.

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Eh...this is a dangerous pattern change if you have been monitoring the GFS for the past several runs. Don't foresee it getting 35-40 cold here but whats more important is whats happening underneath...trouble in the Caribbean. More than half of all land-falling hurricanes this late in the year strike Florida than anywhere else. You can kiss the cold air goodbye with a hot hurricane coming north and eventually east. Any cool down will be brief...for sure.

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6 hours ago, FallsLake said:

On the GFS (and the Euro) it almost looks like a backdoor cold front. Being six days out that can easily get pushed away.  

I most definitely agree with both. The backdoor cold front is interesting. This may just be a very gradual step down pattern change that plays out for a month.

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9 hours ago, Met1985 said:

I most definitely agree with both. The backdoor cold front is interesting. This may just be a very gradual step down pattern change that plays out for a month.

The GFS continues to show the cool down starting Sunday. Looking out farther it shows a warm up (..but not bad) then another cool down. Fall temps are coming.. 

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4 hours ago, FallsLake said:

The GFS continues to show the cool down starting Sunday. Looking out farther it shows a warm up (..but not bad) then another cool down. Fall temps are coming.. 

I agree on the up and down pattern.  Will be pretty typical of October really. I'll be up at Mt. Mitchell camping next Monday and Tuesday so that should be nice and cool.

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8 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I agree on the up and down pattern.  Will be pretty typical of October really. I'll be up at Mt. Mitchell camping next Monday and Tuesday so that should be nice and cool.

Might be downright cold...Years ago I camped with a friend out on the side of the mountain (..Hurricane ridge, I think). Talk about isolated.   

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17 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Might be downright cold...Years ago I camped with a friend out on the side of the mountain (..Hurricane ridge, I think). Talk about isolated.   

Lol I bet man. Seclusion and peace away from everything.  It will be nice. First time being up there and yes it might be downright cold lol.

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1 hour ago, jshetley said:

GSP says the backdoor front probably does not make it into our CWA, so no early week cooldown here. The latest GFS says no 40's either outside of the mountains in NC right through day 16.

The average low for the entire month of October, for Asheville, is only 46. Why are you dooming and glooming because you can't have 40's in the upstate to round out September? 

This heat has got everyone delirious. 

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20 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

The average low for the entire month of October, for Asheville, is only 46. Why are you dooming and glooming because you can't have 40's in the upstate to round out September? 

This heat has got everyone delirious. 

Asheville's normal low on Oct is 40. At GSP it is 46 and record lows at both sites go lower than that. GSP has actually had a 32 degree low in Sept, way back in 1888.

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1 hour ago, jshetley said:

Asheville's normal low on Oct is 40. At GSP it is 46 and record lows at both sites go lower than that. GSP has actually had a 32 degree low in Sept, way back in 1888.

It definitely isn't 40 for an average low. I've read everywhere from 43.3 to 46 but that can be the difference between measuring the temps at KAVL and downtown Asheville. Either way, not having 40's in a 16 day outlook from now, especially for your area, isn't abnormal. I'm not worried yet. There is little doubt that the pattern is changing. 

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I agree this weather is making some crazy but it's not like they are making this stuff up. Well most if it. We are in a streach of just it staying very warm around here. I mean this weekend currently looks very warm for this time of the year. Our local news station are forecasting a high on Saturday of 86 degrees.  That's only 2 degrees from a record high. Asheville has lows in the 60s maybe 59 on a night or two when there average low is 55 degrees for September.  Currently they are forecasting temps down into the 70s by next Monday and Tuesday. I think our cool downs are short lived really and we stay pretty mild up through October.  I hope I'm wrong but I just don't think this warm pattern with really breakdown anytime soon. 

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2 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

It definitely isn't 40 for an average low. I've read everywhere from 43.3 to 46 but that can be the difference between measuring the temps at KAVL and downtown Asheville. Either way, not having 40's in a 16 day outlook from now, especially for your area, isn't abnormal. I'm not worried yet. There is little doubt that the pattern is changing. 

Yeah next month average low is 43 and average high is 67. Shoot iv seen us go without a frost up until November around here. Right know we need rain in a bad way.

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7 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I agree this weather is making some crazy but it's not like they are making this stuff up. Well most if it. We are in a streach of just it staying very warm around here. I mean this weekend currently looks very warm for this time of the year. Our local news station are forecasting a high on Saturday of 86 degrees.  That's only 2 degrees from a record high. Asheville has lows in the 60s maybe 59 on a night or two when there average low is 55 degrees for September.  Currently they are forecasting temps down into the 70s by next Monday and Tuesday. I think our cool downs are short lived really and we stay pretty mild up through October.  I hope I'm wrong but I just don't think this warm pattern with really breakdown anytime soon. 

Completely agree but I never said he was making anything up. I just don't think that not seeing below normal temps for his area, should be cause for concern if it shows a cooldown overall. I've taken my children trick or treating in the 70's before, so I'm not cliff diving yet, here in September. 

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18 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Completely agree but I never said he was making anything up. I just don't think that not seeing below normal temps for his area, should be cause for concern if it shows a cooldown overall. I've taken my children trick or treating in the 70's before, so I'm not cliff diving yet, here in September. 

Oh I agree.  Right know we could be 90 degrees plus . I could not really care. Sure I would be irritated but what's are you going to do. I do think we flip sometime the next month. I mean iv seen it 70 one day and snow the next. It just seems like we are in this rut where we have gotten very little in relief of all this freaking hot weather lol. I will be looking forward to much cooler days. We have cooled down a bit but just a bit lol.

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Oh I agree.  Right know we could be 90 degrees plus . I could not really care. Sure I would be irritated but what's are you going to do. I do think we flip sometime the next month. I mean iv seen it 70 one day and snow the next. It just seems like we are in this rut where we have gotten very little in relief of all this freaking hot weather lol. I will be looking forward to much cooler days. We have cooled down a bit but just a bit lol.

Just the dew points dropping, I have been satisfied with. Lol.

 

Brick by brick. 

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18z shows meh for pattern change.  Front coming through late next week doesn't seem strong enough to push through and at the end of the run ridge builds back in the east as trough pushes into the PAC NW.  Shouldn't the warm blob in the gulf of Alaska be propping up a stronger ridge there? CPC shows PNA staying in negative territory.  Ugh

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3 hours ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

It definitely isn't 40 for an average low. I've read everywhere from 43.3 to 46 but that can be the difference between measuring the temps at KAVL and downtown Asheville. Either way, not having 40's in a 16 day outlook from now, especially for your area, isn't abnormal. I'm not worried yet. There is little doubt that the pattern is changing. 

I see I missed that up. I meant that on Oct 31 the average low at the airport near Asheville is 40. You are right for the average low for the whole month is in the 43-44 range though.

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