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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion

NWNC2015

By NWNC2015,
in Southeastern States

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

So far this season, I like the fact that we're getting strong high pressures dropping into the US and moving into the damming regions.  Those have been conspicuously absent much of the last couple of years.  So, we've started off on the right foot there.

Now, as NCSNOW said, we need more shortwaves.  And as Shetley would quickly point out, those have largely been conspicuously absent THIS season.  I'm supposing this is a La Niña effect.

If we can remain in this pattern of at or below normal in the face of hostile teleconnections, I will almost consider that a win.  Hopefully, we'll be able sneak our way into something.

And good work, Jon!  I like what you did with week 4 there.  Having the heart of the cold just to the west indicates to me that the storm track might not be so suppressed that we end up very cold and sunny.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

The MJO is in the outer part of the circle of death and trying to peek out in phase 5-6...which is absolutely no good for anyone in the east.

mjo.gif

That's his point, hope I have it right. As long as mjo stays inside the circle where good to go. He says the left side of the circle is gold but bottom line is as long as we stay inside no matter where SE avg normal to BN.

 

I have alot more faith in Larry and his research than Cohen SAI index when trying to look into the LR and study indicies, tcs etc

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

In reality, probably not.  But Larry was specifically talking about what the Euro suite was showing.

Yes he was and the mjo forecast it spat out last night showed it staying inside the circle and possibly heading more toward the left side.

Mac you need to get webber and larry to explain  how all this affects wave patterns downstream, very deep. But webber imo is ahead of his time. Weather , atmosphere is one big working piece, with  multiple parts in motion continuously feeding back n forth off each other causing the net results we expierence in our micro climates. It's never constant and always guranteed to change. What makes it such a challenge to try and predict. Funny thing is as chaotic as it appears at times its really masterfully created to provide the balance required to sustain life her on earth.

Man that was deep. Lol

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Jonathan

Jonathan

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Is that Euro-based or GFS-based?

GEFS

18 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

That's his point, hope I have it right. As long as mjo stays inside the circle where good to go. He says the left side of the circle is gold but bottom line is as long as we stay inside no matter where SE avg normal to BN.

 

I have alot more faith in Larry and his research than Cohen SAI index when trying to look into the LR and study indicies, tcs etc

True, but I'd at least like to see it on the left side, specifically in phases 7-8-1. While it's in the CoD, it's too close for comfort on the right side.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Yes he was and the mjo forecast it spat out last night showed it staying inside the circle and possibly heading more toward the left side.

Mac you need to get webber and larry to explain  how all this affects wave patterns downstream, very deep. But webber imo is ahead of his time. Weather , atmosphere is one big working piece, with  multiple parts in motion continuously feeding back n forth off each other causing the net results we expierence in our micro climates. It's never constant and always guranteed to change. What makes it such a challenge to try and predict. Funny thing is as chaotic as it appears at times its really masterfully created to provide the balance required to sustain life her on earth.

Man that was deep. Lol

Man, Larry is great and explains things really well! Webber is awesome I'm sure, but reading his posts are like reading Arabic!

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Jonathan

Jonathan

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, MichaelJ said:

Fact of the matter is that we all should take anything past 5 days with a ton of salt (not the highway laying down kind either)

This quote is so overused lol. Everyone here knows how model-watching works. We know it's not set in stone.

If you want to be perfectly technical, you should take anything beyond what it's doing outside at exactly this moment with a "ton/grain" of salt, because no one, computer or person, knows *exactly* what it's going to do even one second from now. All we have is "guidance." That's what models are. No certainty.

First it was "take anything past 10 days with a 'grain' of salt." Now it's down to "take anything past 5 days with a 'ton' of salt." So that's basically saying we're using a lot more salt for half the original time (10 days), so technically we're more uncertain at day 5 instead of 10...wut? lol

:huh:

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

This quote is so overused lol. Everyone here knows how model-watching works. We know it's not set in stone.

If you want to be perfectly technical, you should take anything beyond what it's doing outside at exactly this moment with a "ton/grain" of salt, because no one, computer or person, knows *exactly* what it's going to do even one second from now. All we have is "guidance." That's what models are. No certainty.

First it was "take anything past 10 days with a 'grain' of salt." Now it's down to "take anything past 5 days with a 'ton' of salt." So that's basically saying we're using a lot more salt for half the original time (10 days), so technically we're more uncertain at day 5 instead of 10...wut? lol

:huh:

To be fair this year has not been the norm. We have seen a lot of change beyond day 5. 

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted
AO set to reach +5 in 3-4 days on the GFS Ensemble Mean per this calculation...just ugly

105t8o6.gif&key=a9d141088c3c3cf5632f206cb2b2bdc24ef928778220a170a72cb210c904b57a

287lrfp.gif&key=c19ba2cf6e2abd2597c2746530f04bff92dff1bfb2e27eb3626c849f20bcbc7a

What goes up must come down grit! Better we have this happening in December.

12z Euro like Met said above is throwing us a bone or two after Christmas. 12z GFS storm Day 10 isn't a bad look either with very cold 850s wrapping around the low. Interesting. I highly doubt the ensembles have the end of the year figured out.

8e618d15bd4426bd2a1e5e7d01d7091a.png

Not sure if my images are posting, I'm on mobile. Any case I'll post again - sorry if this post also double posts, having trouble with that while editing in tapatalk. d36a699509b5784dc5519385dfcd5eb2.png

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Jon said:

What goes up must come down grit! Better we have this happening in December.

12z Euro like Met said above is throwing us a bone or two after Christmas. 12z GFS storm Day 10 isn't a bad look either with very cold 850s wrapping around the low. Interesting. I highly doubt the ensembles have the end of the year figured out.

8e618d15bd4426bd2a1e5e7d01d7091a.png

Good stuff Jon! I agree.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, griteater said:

AO set to reach +5 in 3-4 days on the GFS Ensemble Mean per this calculation...just ugly

Top 10 Highest AO Days in December (Since 1950):

12/2/79: +5.04

12/5/79: +4.80

12/17/91: +4.70

12/1/79: +4.59

12/3/79: +4.58

12/4/79: +4.45

12/18/91: +4.41

12/2/11: +4.35

12/15/13: +4.30

12/3/11: +3.95

 

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, griteater said:

Top 10 Highest AO Days in December (Since 1950):

12/2/79: +5.04

12/5/79: +4.80

12/17/91: +4.70

12/1/79: +4.59

12/3/79: +4.58

12/4/79: +4.45

12/18/91: +4.41

12/2/11: +4.35

12/15/13: +4.30

12/3/11: +3.95

 

And the following January for those years

Correlation? Maybe slight? Maybe other players on the field? Have not gone back to look. But other than '11 given these extreme AO's, there's still hope I guess.

 

cd174.64.77.18.351.12.41.40.prcp.png

cd174.64.77.18.351.12.42.47.prcp.png

cd174.64.77.18.351.12.46.12.prcp.png

cd174.64.77.18.351.12.47.39.prcp.png

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Iv not really seen a torch pattern unless you like looking at 384 hours GFS all day.

Sorry didn't mean torch in true sense.  Just warmer than desired.  I call everything above 50 a torch.  In full sun 50 does feel like a torch at least to me.  I was hoping for 30 with snow showers on Xmas.  Wishcast I suppose.

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

That's his point, hope I have it right. As long as mjo stays inside the circle where good to go. He says the left side of the circle is gold but bottom line is as long as we stay inside no matter where SE avg normal to BN.

 

I have alot more faith in Larry and his research than Cohen SAI index when trying to look into the LR and study indicies, tcs etc

+ 100 on the MJO

it usually can be counted on and now it don't look good

Enjoy the winter we get

Although no material snow so far, the weather has been supportive of Advent.  A blessed time of year

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Poimen

Poimen

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, griteater said:

Top 10 Highest AO Days in December (Since 1950):

12/2/79: +5.04

12/5/79: +4.80

12/17/91: +4.70

12/1/79: +4.59

12/3/79: +4.58

12/4/79: +4.45

12/18/91: +4.41

12/2/11: +4.35

12/15/13: +4.30

12/3/11: +3.95

 

Interesting that February and early March 1980 featured some of the best winter weather the SE has ever seen (Grasps at straws!)

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