packbacker Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Nov PDO updated and was 1.88 on jisao site. Looking back at the strong Nov/Dec PDO's since 1980 gives you trough in the west for Dec, a little surprised. Progresses east in Jan/Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Lol where is all the warmth for around Christmas besides maybe one day? 00Z GFS says what super ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Seems like when the models show a torch they end up backing off just a day or two later. Really feel like we could have a good storm before the end of the month. We have tonight's little event, and another possible event Monday night into Tuesday. Seen this happen before where we get a couple of small events here followed by a big one soon after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Lol where is all the warmth for around Christmas besides maybe one day? 00Z GFS says what super ridge?Euro agrees. Merry Christmas to all cliff divers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Lol where is all the warmth for around Christmas besides maybe one day? 00Z GFS says what super ridge?Euro agrees. Merry Christmas to all cliff divers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Deja vu...bearing ridge. Hopefully it connects to west coast ridge later on in January or we are going to go through the same cycle of getting cold after precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Yeah, models backing off warmth for Christmas day as we get closer. Just shows how much a 10 day forecast is subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 50 minutes ago, Poimen said: Yeah, models backing off warmth for Christmas day as we get closer. Just shows how much a 10 day forecast is subject to change. This should be a given. Seems like people go through this every single year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Bundle up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Bundle up.... LOL - what a wake up call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 LOL, packbacker is the antithesis of JB, if there is a warm model out there, he will find it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 This reminds me of a few years back where the indices looked horrible and the LR models continued to show warm ups. As we got closer they backed off the warm up and we ended up below normal or at least neutral. (but)If I can remember right we did have the EPO negative; (so)not sure how we do that this time unless we can get multiple CAD setups (...which seem to be showing up). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 22 minutes ago, MichaelJ said: LOL, packbacker is the antithesis of JB, if there is a warm model out there, he will find it! LOL...they won't be hard to find the next two weeks. I have to combat JB Jr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: LOL...they won't be hard to find the next two weeks. I have to combat JB Jr. We need balance in the force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Just now, Cold Rain said: We need balance in the force. So I don't get type casted...first seasonal to flip is the latest Jamstec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 ^ Nice! Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 ^ Nice! Lock it up.Let the flip begin! Just not to many flops Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 ^ Nice! Lock it up.Let the flip begin! Just not to many flops Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Just now, strongwxnc said: Let the flip begin! Just not to many flops Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Truth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Still a stout SER! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 51 minutes ago, MichaelJ said: LOL, packbacker is the antithesis of JB, if there is a warm model out there, he will find it! Bingo! If there is one model that shows heat or rain, instead of snow, he will find it!! I bet he's got his own homemade model in his basement, like JBs " pioneer" !!lol packs in house model is named : Brick 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 9 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Still a stout SER! Gotta have just enough of a ridge to bring us Snowmageddon2017! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 18 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Bingo! If there is one model that shows heat or rain, instead of snow, he will find it!! I bet he's got his own homemade model in his basement, like JBs " pioneer" !!lol packs in house model is named : Brick 2000 Does he use antilogs though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 1 minute ago, No snow for you said: Does he use antilogs though? Oh lord, in all this hunt for cold and snow, I forgot about anal logs! I think we've seen enough over the last couple of years, they are almost useless! I think he will use them from time to time,especially if they are warm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 If anyone remembers the EXCAM seasonal "model" by Al Marinaro, it is out of commission. However, I took it upon myself to create the images. This using the Top 10 CPC 6-10 Day Analogs for our upcoming pattern located here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/analog.php These 10 dates have a pretty high correlation 94.4%, I took these dates and extrapolated them out to Week 3 and Week 4, here are the results. (Preface this with there could be errors, my first time doing this...lots of manual math even with excel) Week 3 (12/31/16-01/6/17) Week 4 (01/7/17-01/13/17) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Jammin January going to save again. Jon that is great. Thanks for doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 12 minutes ago, No snow for you said: Jammin January going to save again. Jon that is great. Thanks for doing that. +1 Hope week 4 verifies! We could do ok with that look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 I actually prefer to keep the pattern we've been having up to this point and take my chances with it. Rdu is sitting at -2.8, GSO -3 for the month. Our first problem is always cold air. I'll take my chances with this cause eventually well hit one over the fence if it holds up. Noticing these fronts start coming through and stalling off the coast cause ser holds em up. That sets up the opportunity for over runing. Jan 2000 /10 day stretch that's what happened. Artic front was draped stalled out along gulf Coast and off ne florida coast and little waves would run along it and throw back moisture. The crusher came about by a little piece of ns energy diving down into the leftover front and it bombed out. Haven't seen a lot of ns energy on the field, that's the one thing I wish would show up more. But these fronts coming through and stalling off the coast isn't a bad thing and can provide alot of opportunity in dead of winter. Also Larry for 2 years has been doing extensive studies on mjo and has the research to back it up, but basically as long as it's in the inner circle and preferably left side the SE stays normal to below, regardless of everything else. From what I gather euro , maybe ensembles or control show this staying locked in. Wish I could explain it better, bottom line is don't beleive the seasonal models espeacilly american suite cause they keep sending false alarms. Now if mjo starts moving into unfavorable spots then get the sunscreen out. I just butchered his theory but it requires alot of reading to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: I actually prefer to keep the pattern we've been having up to this point and take my chances with it. Rdu is sitting at -2.8, GSO -3 for the month. Our first problem is always cold air. I'll take my chances with this cause eventually well hit one over the fence if it holds up. Noticing these fronts start coming through and stalling off the coast cause ser holds em up. That sets up the opportunity for over runing. Jan 2000 /10 day stretch that's what happened. Artic front was draped stalled out along gulf Coast and off ne florida coast and little waves would run along it and throw back moisture. The crusher came about by a little piece of ns energy diving down into the leftover front and it bombed out. Haven't seen a lot of ns energy on the field, that's the one thing I wish would show up more. But these fronts coming through and stalling off the coast isn't a bad thing and can provide alot of opportunity in dead of winter. Also Larry for 2 years has been doing extensive studies on mjo and has the research to back it up, but basically as long as it's in the inner circle and preferably left side the SE stays normal to below, regardless of everything else. From what I gather euro , maybe ensembles or control show this staying locked in. Wish I could explain it better, bottoman line is don't beleive the seasonal models espeacilly am suite cause they keep sending false alarms. Now if mjo starts moving into unfavorable spots then get the sunscreen out. I just butchered his theory but it requires alot of reading to understand. But Pack promised we'd finish December above normal!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 7 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: I actually prefer to keep the pattern we've been having up to this point and take my chances with it. Rdu is sitting at -2.8, GSO -3 for the month. Our first problem is always cold air. I'll take my chances with this cause eventually well hit one over the fence if it holds up. Noticing these fronts start coming through and stalling off the coast cause ser holds em up. That sets up the opportunity for over runing. Jan 2000 /10 day stretch that's what happened. Artic front was draped stalled out along gulf Coast and off ne florida coast and little waves would run along it and throw back moisture. The crusher came about by a little piece of ns energy diving down into the leftover front and it bombed out. Haven't seen a lot of ns energy on the field, that's the one thing I wish would show up more. But these fronts coming through and stalling off the coast isn't a bad thing and can provide alot of opportunity in dead of winter. Also Larry for 2 years has been doing extensive studies on mjo and has the research to back it up, but basically as long as it's in the inner circle and preferably left side the SE stays normal to below, regardless of everything else. From what I gather euro , maybe ensembles or control show this staying locked in. Wish I could explain it better, bottom line is don't beleive the seasonal models espeacilly american suite cause they keep sending false alarms. Now if mjo starts moving into unfavorable spots then get the sunscreen out. I just butchered his theory but it requires alot of reading to understand. The MJO is in the outer part of the circle of death and trying to peek out in phase 5-6...which is absolutely no good for anyone in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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