Cold Rain Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Who's gonna start the thread and put the final nail in the coffin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 10 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Thanks Pack. Looks Good for mby at the surface, HP in place. I'm almost certain without even looking 850's are a furnace since theirs no NS interaction. Be rooting for ice event, but beggars cant be choosers I still have a lot to learn. What is "NS Interaction"? "NCSNOW Interaction"?:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Who's gonna start the thread and put the final nail in the coffin? Cold Rain, I am curious. What is the meaning of the little NAO forecast/Dikembe Mutombo graphic in your posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: I still have a lot to learn. What is "NS Interaction"? "NCSNOW Interaction"?:) Northern Stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 23 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Cold Rain, I am curious. What is the meaning of the little NAO forecast/Dikembe Mutombo graphic in your posts? It means No No No -NAO. Not in my house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 37 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It means No No No -NAO. Not in my house! But don't we like -NAO around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: But don't we like -NAO around here? Or is Mr. Mutombo personifying the NC weather patter the last few years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Snow showing up for the deep south on the 28th on latest GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 24 minutes ago, cdhay17 said: Snow showing up for the deep south on the 28th on latest GFS run The LP is at NYC. That's cold chasing moisture, as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 3 minutes ago, Jonathan said: The LP is at NYC. That's cold chasing moisture, as always. And it's la la land, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 32 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Or is Mr. Mutombo personifying the NC weather patter the last few years? That graphic sums it up for the -NAO. Has not made an appearance since 2011. The -EPO really saved a couple winters after that but I think it's time for the -NAO to get it's arse off the bench and get in the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2 hours ago, cbmclean said: Or is Mr. Mutombo personifying the NC weather patter the last few years? 2 hours ago, GaStorm said: That graphic sums it up for the -NAO. Has not made an appearance since 2011. The -EPO really saved a couple winters after that but I think it's time for the -NAO to get it's arse off the bench and get in the game! Bingo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Pattern update. ... It still looks to sucks for the rest of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Pattern update. ... It still looks to sucks for the rest of Dec. Yup. As my son used to say, "Obliviously". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 How's Bricks Tuesday event looking on GFS!!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 18 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: How's Bricks Tuesday event looking on GFS!!?? Still at odds with the euro. Kind of funny in the past I would automatically give more weight to the euro but now I'm not getting excited until the GFS comes on board. From RAH: "......With so much uncertainty, it is difficult to ascertain whether or not a brief period of wintry precipitation will be possible Mon/Tue. At this time, will continue to indicate above freezing lows and all rain Mon/Tue. Expect dry conditions and a warmup into the 50s Wed/Thu, followed by a cool down in the wake of the next cold front late next week (Friday). -Vincent" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 4 hours ago, Jonathan said: Snow showing up for the deep south on the 28th on latest GFS run and the 18Z t taketh away ... go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 39 minutes ago, pcbjr said: and the 18Z t taketh away ... go figure That's weird, that wasn't my quote. I had quoted his maps to point out that it was cold chasing moisture. Anyway, yeah. We need to come to grips with punting until after mid January for wintry weather I'm afraid. We're literally seeing the absolute worst case scenario possible with the indices through the next two weeks, and probably beyond. We literally have nothing on our side to indicate a winter pattern till after the new year at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Bingo! So do you guys think the +NAO is a bigger culprit for our last few years of suck as opposed to a +AO? Which do you think has a bigger overall impact on SE weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 9 minutes ago, cbmclean said: So do you guys think the +NAO is a bigger culprit for our last few years of suck as opposed to a +AO? Which do you think has a bigger overall impact on SE weather? A -AO allows the jet stream to buckle across NA, which allows cold to penetrate into the US, assuming cold is available. A -NAO blocks or slows the flow in the North Atlantic, which can allow storms to dig farther south and east and develop more vigorously. It also prevents high pressure to the north from sliding out to sea so quickly, which allows cold air to penetrate into the SE and hang around longer, assuming cold air is available. Usually, when you have a -NAO, the AO is also negative. But not always. Also, the -NAO can take on different configurations, which ultimately determine its benefit to the SE. Does that help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 52 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: A -AO allows the jet stream to buckle across NA, which allows cold to penetrate into the US, assuming cold is available. A -NAO blocks or slows the flow in the North Atlantic, which can allow storms to dig farther south and east and develop more vigorously. It also prevents high pressure to the north from sliding out to sea so quickly, which allows cold air to penetrate into the SE and hang around longer, assuming cold air is available. Usually, when you have a -NAO, the AO is also negative. But not always. Also, the -NAO can take on different configurations, which ultimately determine its benefit to the SE. Does that help? I think a +PNA is even more important than the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 15 minutes ago, No snow for you said: I think a +PNA is even more important than the rest. Maybe so. You can get a winter storm with a - and + NAO. But it seems much harder to get a winter storm in the SE with a -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 1 hour ago, Jonathan said: That's weird, that wasn't my quote. I had quoted his maps to point out that it was cold chasing moisture. Anyway, yeah. We need to come to grips with punting until after mid January for wintry weather I'm afraid. We're literally seeing the absolute worst case scenario possible with the indices through the next two weeks, and probably beyond. We literally have nothing on our side to indicate a winter pattern till after the new year at least. and Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Maybe so. You can get a winter storm with a - and + NAO. But it seems much harder to get a winter storm in the SE with a -PNA. Christmas storm was a -Pna but the nao was strongly negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: A -AO allows the jet stream to buckle across NA, which allows cold to penetrate into the US, assuming cold is available. A -NAO blocks or slows the flow in the North Atlantic, which can allow storms to dig farther south and east and develop more vigorously. It also prevents high pressure to the north from sliding out to sea so quickly, which allows cold air to penetrate into the SE and hang around longer, assuming cold air is available. Usually, when you have a -NAO, the AO is also negative. But not always. Also, the -NAO can take on different configurations, which ultimately determine its benefit to the SE. Does that help? Yes I appreciate every chance I get to learn more about this. Thanks. So one of the many ways that we miss out on winter weather in the SE (actually the whole east coast) is when an on-coming storm systems pulls a lot of mild air from the south ahead of it. So from your explanation it is the +NAO which is more responsible for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 17 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Maybe so. You can get a winter storm with a - and + NAO. But it seems much harder to get a winter storm in the SE with a -PNA. What about the EPO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 17 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Christmas storm was a -Pna but the nao was strongly negative. Yeah, if you're going to have a -PNA, you gotta have something to counter it, or you get cutter city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: What about the EPO? A -EPO helps promote cross-polar flow, but the trajectory generally puts the cold in the Midwest. If somebody can post some visuals, that would probably help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 21 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: A -EPO helps promote cross-polar flow, but the trajectory generally puts the cold in the Midwest. If somebody can post some visuals, that would probably help. I have hread it said that a strong EPO- "saved" a couple of recent winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 45 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: A -EPO helps promote cross-polar flow, but the trajectory generally puts the cold in the Midwest. If somebody can post some visuals, that would probably help. Focused in central conus as you pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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