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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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10 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Thanks Pack. Looks Good for mby at the surface, HP in place. I'm almost certain without even looking 850's are a furnace since theirs no NS interaction. Be rooting for ice event, but beggars cant be choosers

I still have a lot to learn.  What is "NS Interaction"?  "NCSNOW Interaction"?:)

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32 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Or is Mr. Mutombo personifying the NC weather patter the last few years?

That graphic sums it up for the -NAO. Has not made an appearance since 2011. The -EPO really saved a couple winters after that but I think it's time for the -NAO to get it's arse off the bench and get in the game!

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2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Or is Mr. Mutombo personifying the NC weather patter the last few years?

 

2 hours ago, GaStorm said:

That graphic sums it up for the -NAO. Has not made an appearance since 2011. The -EPO really saved a couple winters after that but I think it's time for the -NAO to get it's arse off the bench and get in the game!

Bingo!

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18 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

How's Bricks Tuesday event looking on GFS!!??

Still at odds with the euro. Kind of funny in the past I would automatically give more weight to the euro but now I'm not getting excited until the GFS comes on board.

From RAH:

"......With so much uncertainty, it is difficult to ascertain whether or
not a brief period of wintry precipitation will be possible Mon/Tue.
At this time, will continue to indicate above freezing lows and all
rain Mon/Tue. Expect dry conditions and a warmup into the 50s
Wed/Thu, followed by a cool down in the wake of the next cold front
late next week (Friday). -Vincent"

 

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39 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

and the 18Z t taketh away ... go figure

:poster_oops:

That's weird, that wasn't my quote. :lol: I had quoted his maps to point out that it was cold chasing moisture.

Anyway, yeah. We need to come to grips with punting until after mid January for wintry weather I'm afraid. We're literally seeing the absolute worst case scenario possible with the indices through the next two weeks, and probably beyond. We literally have nothing on our side to indicate a winter pattern till after the new year at least.

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9 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

So do you guys think the +NAO is a bigger culprit for our last few years of suck as opposed to a +AO?  Which do you think has a bigger overall impact on SE weather?

A -AO allows the jet stream to buckle across NA, which allows cold to penetrate into the US, assuming cold is available.  A -NAO blocks or slows the flow in the North Atlantic, which can allow storms to dig farther south and east and develop more vigorously.  It also prevents high pressure to the north from sliding out to sea so quickly, which allows cold air to penetrate into the SE and hang around longer, assuming cold air is available.  Usually, when you have a -NAO, the AO is also negative.  But not always.  Also, the -NAO can take on different configurations, which ultimately determine its benefit to the SE.  Does that help?

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52 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

A -AO allows the jet stream to buckle across NA, which allows cold to penetrate into the US, assuming cold is available.  A -NAO blocks or slows the flow in the North Atlantic, which can allow storms to dig farther south and east and develop more vigorously.  It also prevents high pressure to the north from sliding out to sea so quickly, which allows cold air to penetrate into the SE and hang around longer, assuming cold air is available.  Usually, when you have a -NAO, the AO is also negative.  But not always.  Also, the -NAO can take on different configurations, which ultimately determine its benefit to the SE.  Does that help?

I think a +PNA is even more important than the rest. 

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1 hour ago, Jonathan said:

That's weird, that wasn't my quote. :lol: I had quoted his maps to point out that it was cold chasing moisture.

Anyway, yeah. We need to come to grips with punting until after mid January for wintry weather I'm afraid. We're literally seeing the absolute worst case scenario possible with the indices through the next two weeks, and probably beyond. We literally have nothing on our side to indicate a winter pattern till after the new year at least.

:poster_oops:

and :weep:

:maprain:

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

A -AO allows the jet stream to buckle across NA, which allows cold to penetrate into the US, assuming cold is available.  A -NAO blocks or slows the flow in the North Atlantic, which can allow storms to dig farther south and east and develop more vigorously.  It also prevents high pressure to the north from sliding out to sea so quickly, which allows cold air to penetrate into the SE and hang around longer, assuming cold air is available.  Usually, when you have a -NAO, the AO is also negative.  But not always.  Also, the -NAO can take on different configurations, which ultimately determine its benefit to the SE.  Does that help?

Yes I appreciate every chance I get to learn more about this.  Thanks.

So one of the many ways that we miss out on winter weather in the SE (actually the whole east coast) is when an on-coming storm systems pulls a lot of mild air from the south ahead of it.  So from your explanation it is the +NAO which is more responsible for this?

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