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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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1 minute ago, fritschy said:

with all the snowstorms and cold coming in North of us you would think some of that would filter down into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast, we are getting the cold now we need the moisture.  same old thing when moisture arrives it warms up.  :(

 

I'm just a weeny but my understanding is that the "warm-up and rain" cycle for the east coast is the signature of a winter with no good AO blocking, so look for it to continue.  I'm just happy that we have so far had the transient cold shots to keep things from getting too toasty.

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12 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

Yea be nice for the pig ridge to take a hiatis. Need EC trough and the pac has to get straightened out for that to happen. 

This will help illustrate a point. If we did a survey of the top year anyone in se expierenced. The top 2 answers would be 2000 and 1993. 2000 had the greatest 10 day stretch of winter weather in central NC History or atleast since I've been alive. March 93 was the superstorm/Blizzard. I was in school in the mtns that winter. Both winters,espeacilly 1993 flat out sucked from a winter weather standpoint. 93 in Cullowhee had a mid to late Feb storm, first of season if I remeber correctly and then the weekend of the Acc men's basketball tourney the superstorm. It was a horrible winter up till then. 2000 wasn't much better till 3rd week of Jan, then after the big 2 week run and it was a run let me tell you, didn't see the bare ground for over 2 weeks, that was it. 

In the SE that's usually how it happens. You get the goods all during one time span during the 90 day course of winter. Never wall to wall, except the once every 25 year 2009-2010 deal. Even those only last about 40 to 60 days.

Although I love snow I still enjoy cold dry weather or even cool damp weather, so I am easier to please than many folks on this board.  Right now my criterion for success is "not torch".

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If Euro holds serve at 12z today, Might Be time to Rumble: This actually looks like it has some legs to it as oppossed to sat a.m. glorified frost potential.

Got the HP in perfect placement, just need the waves to crank up ridinng the coastal front:

 

The surface cold front is expected to stall
near the coast early to mid next week as the front becomes parallel
with the mid/upper level flow. Multiples waves of low pressure are
expected to track along the front early next week, before a northern
stream s/w finally push the front further to the east and south by
Tuesday afternoon. Until then expect periods of mainly cold rain,
best chances east/southeast. If moisture spreads back into the
northwest Piedmont we could see a brief period of wintry weather
with cold high pressure extending into the area from the north and
northwest. However, with low confidence with regard to the timing
and strength of such waves will keep everything liquid for now.
Temps are expected to be below normal early next week, with highs on
Monday in the 30s to around 40, and highs Tuesday in the 40s and
lows through Wednesday morning in the 30s (with some upper 20s
possibly by Wednesday morning).
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5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Sounds like the precip isn't a question with next week's system, but how low will the temps go. Euro had it right on the line, so it could turn out to be a lot of ice or just rain. One or two degrees would make a world of difference.

In such situations, based on past history and an understanding of our current climate regime, I think its justified to expect that temps will verify on the higher end of model guidance and thus just a nice cold rain.  ColdRain should love it.

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17 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

In such situations, based on past history and an understanding of our current climate regime, I think its justified to expect that temps will verify on the higher end of model guidance and thus just a nice cold rain.  ColdRain should love it.

??? based on past history and understanding our climate regime with the setup depicted for Mon into Tues its justified to expect models will verify to high on surface temps. 1044 HP parked in perfect position to deliver perfect Cad and the  surface LP's are trackin to our east, not west up the apps. 

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Well the Euro didn't back off, it has a ton of QPF with temps hovering between 31-33F.  Euro is all alone with this vigorous of a wave though, which it does tend to do.

12z CMC is a little quicker with the wave but has it just not as strong.  It's a little warmer then the Euro.  The GFS is weaker and colder, has virtually nothing getting back to central NC.

Screen Shot 2016-12-16 at 11.24.08 AM.png

Screen Shot 2016-12-16 at 11.24.20 AM.png

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Looking at the weak nina analogs that had a AN east and BN warmer west in Dec and Jan they did roll forward to something OK in Feb.  Not the snowiest analogs but a little something hopefully.  The 60's analogs are snowy but don't like analoging snow from the 60's winters as those were so extreme.

Screen Shot 2016-12-16 at 11.36.13 AM.png

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3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Just looking at the entire run of the 12z GFS and it looks very normal temp wise for the SE. Again it will be a big win if we can average normal during this supposedly warm pattern.    

The bad news is that it is getting drier with each run. Now some of SC and GA do not get but .25 of rain on this run right though hour 384. I'm hoping if the weather does stay dry, that 70-75 temps come back and stay. No reason to have cold temps without precip. This reminds me a LOT of 1988-89 and if I'm right, Jan is a lost cause for all of us on this board. It'll be Feb or nothing for winter.

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39 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Guess we'll see if the Euro is really still the king. It's not backing down yet. If the GFS is right on temps, and the Euro right with the precip, it really will be a mess. Could be a mess just based on the Euro with it being right at freezing with the temps.

It has the Nam in its corner out to 84. Thats the old EE rule. So if it stands it ground at 12z and Nam at 18z, I'll be buying in full monty. Those 2 line up inside 5 days and they are a hard combo to beat. We enter that wheelhouse today so lets see.

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8 minutes ago, jshetley said:

The bad news is that it is getting drier with each run. Now some of SC and GA do not get but .25 of rain on this run right though hour 384. I'm hoping if the weather does stay dry, that 70-75 temps come back and stay. No reason to have cold temps without precip. This reminds me a LOT of 1988-89 and if I'm right, Jan is a lost cause for all of us on this board. It'll be Feb or nothing for winter.

I could only dream of Jan 88 and 89

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22 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

I could only dream of Jan 88 and 89

Jan 88 but NOT 1989. That one was warm with little to no winter precip. Feb 1989 was crazy though, with 80 degree temps at one point along with a major icestorm and a minor snowstorm here in upstate SC. Folks along I-95 in NC and on up into SE VA would love another Feb like 1989.

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