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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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31 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Our best bet this winter might be a well timed transient block that sets up ala 2000, 2002.   We are going to finish Dec with a really bad pattern, those are tough to shake off usually.  

FWIW the euro did show the Tuesday ice deal. 

IMG_3408.GIF

IMG_3409.GIF

To be fair Pack I completely understand where you are coming from but saying we are going to be in a really bad pattern in premature if  you ask me. We may be at or a little bit above normal but nothing like last year. 

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2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

To be fair Pack I completely understand where you are coming from but saying we are going to be in a really bad pattern in premature if  you ask me. We may be at or a little bit above normal but nothing like last year. 

I said we look to end December in a really bad pattern...what's being shown can be hard to shake off.  How is that premature?   Are you saying what the ensembles are spitting out for the last week of December are wrong?

Edit:  I have been them most bullish one on this forum.  Should have qualified that I was speaking for January with respect to getting a winter storm.

 

Screen Shot 2016-12-14 at 3.23.03 PM.png

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5 minutes ago, packbacker said:

I said we look to end December in a really bad pattern...what's being shown can be hard to shake off.  How is that premature?   Are you saying what the ensembles are spitting out for the last week of December are wrong?

Edit:  I have been them most bullish one on this forum.  Should have qualified that I was speaking for January with respect to getting a winter storm.

 

Screen Shot 2016-12-14 at 3.23.03 PM.png

The gefs and other ensembles and models, have really been flip flopping in the short range and long range. I really wouldn't take an end of December look as gospel! It's an ugly look, but will change tomorrow probably.

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5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The gefs and other ensembles and models, have really been flip flopping in the short range and long range. I really wouldn't take an end of December look as gospel! It's an ugly look, but will change tomorrow probably.

Fair point...though I think the LR large scale hemispheric pattern hasn't been to terrible.  The short/medium range modeling of individual waves has been really erratic.

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2 hours ago, packbacker said:

I said we look to end December in a really bad pattern...what's being shown can be hard to shake off.  How is that premature?   Are you saying what the ensembles are spitting out for the last week of December are wrong?

Edit:  I have been them most bullish one on this forum.  Should have qualified that I was speaking for January with respect to getting a winter storm.

 

Screen Shot 2016-12-14 at 3.23.03 PM.png

Yeah I'm saying they are wrong because as Mack has said even the ensembles are flip flopping. Even the great Euro weeklues have not been stellar. By the way how has our recent runs of the euro weeklies been? Also I'm not picking on you or calling you out. Just trying to state we are in a pattern of constant change from one day to another. I cringe when I see people only taking La Nina into affect because we are virtually in a dead a La nina currently. We have seen  some very strange things this season and I think they continue.

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9 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Seriously though, who on our forum is "torching" this month? 

Other than me - maybe no one - but it has pretty much been AN so far as I can tell

And it sure doesn't look to be anything but, going into the remainder of this month after this little thing up your way the next couple of days

Basically looking wall to wall and not at a 3 day event

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I said we look to end December in a really bad pattern...what's being shown can be hard to shake off.  How is that premature?   Are you saying what the ensembles are spitting out for the last week of December are wrong?

Edit:  I have been them most bullish one on this forum.  Should have qualified that I was speaking for January with respect to getting a winter storm.

 

Screen Shot 2016-12-14 at 3.23.03 PM.png




I agree that we will most likely be in a rough pattern to end December . But to be fair the ensembles a week ago had next week looking like a torch and now it's anything but. so while it's most likely not to be a great pattern, I'd bet once we get to the last week of December we will be talking about how it could be alot worse

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

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20 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

Then (if you take the 18Z wayyyyy past la la land)

 

gfs_T2ma_us_53.png

If we're only talking temps, I've noticed that CADs seem to be back in full play. Not saying any specific CAD will bring wintery precip but they have a way of tempering patterns that would normally provide much above temps. Of course for CAD areas... 

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JB's just posted his latest thoughts...if he is saying 3-6 weeks you know it's bad.  Still, a bootleg winter storm is in the cards, the cold still appears to stay in North American, need a little luck with a transient block.  I am definitely not saying winters over after next week.

3 weeks is mid January, 6 weeks is into Feb...:mellow:

The next battle is how long and how strong a warm up there will be. It will last at least 1-2 weeks, and it will likely be 3-6 weeks above normal from the Mississippi River eastward. Once the coming cold goes, the Pacific will be hostile to any renewed cold in major HDD areas over the next 15 days.

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1 minute ago, pcbjr said:

Thanks, Pack. At least we know Santa will be using an ATV this year.

Well he's wrong alot so there's that...but makes sense to be honest.  Cold will probably dump in the central conus first before it pushes east, assuming we get a favorable pac in early Jan.

The models could always be wrong too.

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13 minutes ago, packbacker said:

JB's just posted his latest thoughts...if he is saying 3-6 weeks you know it's bad.  Still, a bootleg winter storm is in the cards, the cold still appears to stay in North American, need a little luck with a transient block.  I am definitely not saying winters over after next week.

3 weeks is mid January, 6 weeks is into Feb...:mellow:

The next battle is how long and how strong a warm up there will be. It will last at least 1-2 weeks, and it will likely be 3-6 weeks above normal from the Mississippi River eastward. Once the coming cold goes, the Pacific will be hostile to any renewed cold in major HDD areas over the next 15 days.

I'll try to call JB tomorrow, and see if we can't get that duration of warmth reduce some! We will end up with a few good storms before spring. That's how we get them in the SE. When pattern changes often!! Overwhelming COLD is dry more times than not when it gets this far south.... I still think we do good this winter Pack just hang on for a little while longer, and enjoy your frizzle Saturday morning.............. I don't think we blow torch just a bit AN for a while. And we can still get snow when we are in a mild pattern. Now if it's February and I'm saying this (it's not good).....  As PCBJR said Thanks for keeping us up to date... I appreciate it! :snowman:  Merry Christmas!!!

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27 minutes ago, packbacker said:

JB's just posted his latest thoughts...if he is saying 3-6 weeks you know it's bad.  Still, a bootleg winter storm is in the cards, the cold still appears to stay in North American, need a little luck with a transient block.  I am definitely not saying winters over after next week.

3 weeks is mid January, 6 weeks is into Feb...:mellow:

The next battle is how long and how strong a warm up there will be. It will last at least 1-2 weeks, and it will likely be 3-6 weeks above normal from the Mississippi River eastward. Once the coming cold goes, the Pacific will be hostile to any renewed cold in major HDD areas over the next 15 days.

That is a typo according to some forum stalwarts, it is supposed to be 3-6 above normal in temps for about 15 days East of the Mississippi not 3-6 weeks

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Not sure where to stick this but here goes, Chicagos last below zero high temperature was December 25th of 1983! Since 1872, there have been only 6 December days with highs below zero!! Their high Sunday is forecast at -3!! Truly record setting cold is around , just not making it down here!

curious to see some data to back this up but seems like when the Midwest gets good snows and deep cold we in the SE do not. Chicago has gotten two really good snows this month...
However, should be fun watching get bears play outside on Sunday :)


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