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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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39 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

6z GFS basically lost our chance for ice on Monday/Tuesday. Maybe southern Virginia could briefly switch over but definitely a trend away from a wintery event.

Edit: at hour 150 it does try to flip some in southern and eastern NC to a brief period of freezing rain. I suppose this is not totally over at this point.

I better enjoy my Sat event!! Might be only frozen all winter! :(

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3 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Shoot so  far I'm happy with December. A stark contrast to the last few. No snow yet other than some very light snow last Friday but we are running below normal. I'm in a wait and see mode. 

Same here. I see no reason to panic especially when looking at some inconsistent models in the long range.

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Why is anyone trying to base anything on the long range GFS when it's still having trouble with temps on the Saturday event?


The Euro is actually in the GFS's camp as it quickly erodes the wedge as well. Doesn't mean that's right, but it doesn't help.
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3 minutes ago, Jon said:


The Euro is actually in the GFS's camp as it quickly erodes the wedge as well. Doesn't mean that's right, but it doesn't help.

Yeah that's no good. I'm not expecting much where I am anyway. Just glad we at least have a better December this year than what we have had in a while.

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22 minutes ago, GaStorm said:

Why is anyone trying to base anything on the long range GFS when it's still having trouble with temps on the Saturday event?

Because scientifically there can be greater confidence further out in time than the short term depending on the setup.

 

This CAD has artic air right before, meaning frozen surface and low level dry air trying to scurry out last minute with precip knocking.

CAD next week can be easier to forecast if we have two days of 60-70s right before, with likely less low level dry air and more confidence of plain rain with poor track and placement of high.

 

 

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36 minutes ago, GaStorm said:

Why is anyone trying to base anything on the long range GFS when it's still having trouble with temps on the Saturday event?

nobody here is, at least im not. this was my climate forecast all along looking at history. below average December followed by average to slightly above average January, and back to average to slightly below average remaining winter.  

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3 minutes ago, AshevilleCityWx said:

Because scientifically there can be greater confidence further out in time than the short term depending on the setup.

 

This CAD has artic air right before, meaning frozen surface and low level dry air trying to scurry out last minute with precip knocking.

CAD next week can be easier to forecast if we have two days of 60-70s right before, with likely less low level dry air and more confidence of plain rain with poor track and placement of high.

 

 

Well high placement does change quite a bit especially looking at anything past 5-10 days. Also, the GFS has not done too well on temps either.

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3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

nobody here is, at least im not. this was my climate forecast all along looking at history. below average December followed by average to slightly above average January, and back to average to slightly below average remaining winter.  

I'm hoping January is nowhere near above average since that is the best time to have a storm. February is usually too quick for me and by the end of the month it's usually too late for anything good lately. Who knows maybe this year it will happen later but I will take my chances next month vs. February or March.

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Indices this morning are slightly better:

AO - Goes very positive (bad) and then falls towards neutral / negative in the LR (better)

NAO - Goes positive(bad) and then falls towards neutral in the LR (better)

PNA - Goes positive (good) and then maybe stays positive in the LR (maybe good) **this was the biggest change

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

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56 minutes ago, GaStorm said:

I'm hoping January is nowhere near above average since that is the best time to have a storm. February is usually too quick for me and by the end of the month it's usually too late for anything good lately. Who knows maybe this year it will happen later but I will take my chances next month vs. February or March.

Agreed. 

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