FallsLake Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 6z GFS basically lost our chance for ice on Monday/Tuesday. Maybe southern Virginia could briefly switch over but definitely a trend away from a wintery event. Edit: at hour 150 it does try to flip some in southern and eastern NC to a brief period of freezing rain. I suppose this is not totally over at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 aww? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 39 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 6z GFS basically lost our chance for ice on Monday/Tuesday. Maybe southern Virginia could briefly switch over but definitely a trend away from a wintery event. Edit: at hour 150 it does try to flip some in southern and eastern NC to a brief period of freezing rain. I suppose this is not totally over at this point. I better enjoy my Sat event!! Might be only frozen all winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I better enjoy my Sat event!! Might be only frozen all winter! It was a bad run for the GFS from start to finish. Yesterday it was showing some promise for the week after Christmas (cold wise). Now it looks warm for most of the country except for the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 This would be a very bad look leading into January: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 30 minutes ago, FallsLake said: This would be a very bad look leading into January: I'll take that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 59 minutes ago, FallsLake said: It was a bad run for the GFS from start to finish. Yesterday it was showing some promise for the week after Christmas (cold wise). Now it looks warm for most of the country except for the NW. Awesome! Fab February will save us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 4 hours ago, FallsLake said: This would be a very bad look leading into January: This was ultimately the catch 22 of this winter. Jan would be warmest of the winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Why is anyone trying to base anything on the long range GFS when it's still having trouble with temps on the Saturday event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, GaStorm said: Why is anyone trying to base anything on the long range GFS when it's still having trouble with temps on the Saturday event? +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 5 minutes ago, GaStorm said: Why is anyone trying to base anything on the long range GFS when it's still having trouble with temps on the Saturday event? Because some are in panic mode on December 14th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just now, Met1985 said: Because some are in panic mode on December 14th... Lol. Guess so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just now, GaStorm said: Lol. Guess so. Shoot so far I'm happy with December. A stark contrast to the last few. No snow yet other than some very light snow last Friday but we are running below normal. I'm in a wait and see mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Shoot so far I'm happy with December. A stark contrast to the last few. No snow yet other than some very light snow last Friday but we are running below normal. I'm in a wait and see mode. Same here. I see no reason to panic especially when looking at some inconsistent models in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 This December should only end up about 2-4 degree above normal, thats pretty good for Decembers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Why is anyone trying to base anything on the long range GFS when it's still having trouble with temps on the Saturday event?The Euro is actually in the GFS's camp as it quickly erodes the wedge as well. Doesn't mean that's right, but it doesn't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, Jon said: The Euro is actually in the GFS's camp as it quickly erodes the wedge as well. Doesn't mean that's right, but it doesn't help. Yeah that's no good. I'm not expecting much where I am anyway. Just glad we at least have a better December this year than what we have had in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 22 minutes ago, GaStorm said: Why is anyone trying to base anything on the long range GFS when it's still having trouble with temps on the Saturday event? Because scientifically there can be greater confidence further out in time than the short term depending on the setup. This CAD has artic air right before, meaning frozen surface and low level dry air trying to scurry out last minute with precip knocking. CAD next week can be easier to forecast if we have two days of 60-70s right before, with likely less low level dry air and more confidence of plain rain with poor track and placement of high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 36 minutes ago, GaStorm said: Why is anyone trying to base anything on the long range GFS when it's still having trouble with temps on the Saturday event? nobody here is, at least im not. this was my climate forecast all along looking at history. below average December followed by average to slightly above average January, and back to average to slightly below average remaining winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, AshevilleCityWx said: Because scientifically there can be greater confidence further out in time than the short term depending on the setup. This CAD has artic air right before, meaning frozen surface and low level dry air trying to scurry out last minute with precip knocking. CAD next week can be easier to forecast if we have two days of 60-70s right before, with likely less low level dry air and more confidence of plain rain with poor track and placement of high. Well high placement does change quite a bit especially looking at anything past 5-10 days. Also, the GFS has not done too well on temps either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: nobody here is, at least im not. this was my climate forecast all along looking at history. below average December followed by average to slightly above average January, and back to average to slightly below average remaining winter. I'm hoping January is nowhere near above average since that is the best time to have a storm. February is usually too quick for me and by the end of the month it's usually too late for anything good lately. Who knows maybe this year it will happen later but I will take my chances next month vs. February or March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 nice bike riding weather for the kids after christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Good news the 384 hours GFS looks better on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 11 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: nice bike riding weather for the kids after christmas. December to remember! No torch, but no snow with normal temps in the South! January will save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 GSP said this morning that the chances of severe storms for Sunday have gone down. Basically no storms at all, except maybe from Elberton GA to Chester SC, unless things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Indices this morning are slightly better: AO - Goes very positive (bad) and then falls towards neutral / negative in the LR (better) NAO - Goes positive(bad) and then falls towards neutral in the LR (better) PNA - Goes positive (good) and then maybe stays positive in the LR (maybe good) **this was the biggest change http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Close call on 12z GFS 348hr. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 56 minutes ago, GaStorm said: I'm hoping January is nowhere near above average since that is the best time to have a storm. February is usually too quick for me and by the end of the month it's usually too late for anything good lately. Who knows maybe this year it will happen later but I will take my chances next month vs. February or March. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 CFSv2 working cold back into its Jan forecast. Worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 A whole bunch of wish-casting, but if we could get this setup and have that high just a couple hundred miles to the west; this would be an interesting Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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