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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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1 hour ago, NEGa said:
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i am not sure i would say its confidence at this point, just a lot of hope lol.  most CAD icing events (for ne ga, at least) tend to follow a pattern with the modeling and how it shows the cold air wedging in, dewpoints, and precip.  it appears that they are showing a positive trend rather than negative - ie. cold enough and early enough onset, as well as a bit more than a few hundreths.  its still pretty far out at this point - winter wx in ga is awfully hard to come by these days it seems.

it has my attention in that its still on the table and at least looks like there is a chance - anything frozen before Christmas is a bonus. i might add that one the biggest ice storms i have witnessed in any area i have lived in was in mid December for ne ga so we have at least reached the time of the year when some icing is possible.

until it gets closer i am still watching with interest, but my optimism is greatly tempered at this time

as a side note, when would my interest increase a fair amount? when/if i see lookout lol.  when he starts watching then you know there is a pretty good chance.  he should show up if/when its warranted :)

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, NEGa said:
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Hey Jed. Good to see you again. I just sent you a message! What are your thoughts on the potential icing? Didn't  you area get hit pretty hard in 2015?

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I don't care what the models are showing. When you have a Banana High and temps in the teens and snowpack to the North, temps will not be a issue. Issue now becomes the strength of the low to the South. The low must be deep to allow gradients to increase for greater CAA and Precip. 

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5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

So Euro is cold and dry? Moisture/ storm supressed?

Euro has some light icing in parts of central/NW NC, into VA.  All 3 of the models at 12z buried the wave in the southwest states so it limits the push of moisture into the area until later when the storm cuts and it's warm.  Temperatures and high pressure to the north looked similar on Mon-Tues.

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5 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro has some light icing in parts of central/NW NC, into VA.  All 3 of the models at 12z buried the wave in the southwest states so it limits the push of moisture into the area until later when the storm cuts and it's warm.  Temperatures and high pressure to the north looked similar on Mon-Tues.

Light icing I'm referring to is Mon night

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Euro has some light icing in parts of central/NW NC, into VA.  All 3 of the models at 12z buried the wave in the southwest states so it limits the push of moisture into the area until later when the storm cuts and it's warm.  Temperatures and high pressure to the north looked similar on Mon-Tues.


well they had the wave buried off of Baja , now it's Arizona . by Thursday she will be completely kicked east :)

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

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25 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

12z euro meets winter storm warning criteria for your backyard. .25-.5  freezing rain.

Yeah, I spoke to soon.  The moisture came later than on the 0z model and the system was really pushed south and east until late like Grit was saying.  Most of Virginia went from over .5 down to 0.  I may need to go to the MA forum to watch the meltdowns!

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Yea that map of bricks is all fr=zing rain, would be lights out in wake county in alot of spots. It's warm right above us ,but if you take that run verbatim it falls below freezing at surface.

Question is where it goes from here. As Grit has thoughorly explained we need the sw wave to get kicked out, or shoved futher east imo and the ridge configurations above us needs to be aligned right. Anyway along with Fri/Sat novelty event and the fact we stay normal to below through December is a big plus. Doesn't mean we want net the same result  but beats the heck out of the past 5 Decembers.

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