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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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On 9/8/2016 at 3:35 PM, Snowless in Carrollton said:

It looks like the La Nina Watch was cancelled. It now appears that ENSO-Neutral conditions are favored for the upcoming winter. I wonder what implication this has on our weather ?

I believe ENSO - Neutral is the best state for frozen precip chances in the SE. Any -NAO would be icing on the cake with that Pacific setup.

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8 hours ago, Met1985 said:

I think this is the doing of the super El Nino of last year. The lag effect maybe that we where flooded with so much warm air last fall and winter that it just continued through the year. The LA nino looks pathetic at best. All I know is that this warmth is going to continue right through the rest of the month. 

Thanks, makes sense.  I'm just so tired of this pattern.  It's exhausting.  

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5 hours ago, GaStorm said:

We really need a tropical system to reverse this quick. I don't like the look of that before winter since it usually means a dry winter as well if it doesn't turn around.

Yep,. We are headed down a dangerous road right now.

 

thank you for posting the images grit.  It's bad like I've mentioned in some other posts. 

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Ray's Weather Center

September 12 at 1:47pm · 

October outlook: Here’s one model’s take on October, which insinuates a continuation of warm and mostly dry weather for next month. And no, the winter outlook is not ready yet.

Maps:

https://www.facebook.com/Rays-Weather-Center-167617589938698/?fref=ts

 

 

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10 hours ago, Jaguars said:

Thanks, makes sense.  I'm just so tired of this pattern.  It's exhausting.  

Yep.  This summer was tied for the hottest summer on record in athens and not a single person I've told has been surprised. Saying Everyone is sick of it all is a real understatement.

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45 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Yep.  This summer was tied for the hottest summer on record in athens and not a single person I've told has been surprised. Saying Everyone is sick of it all is a real understatement.

Lol yep a huge understatement.  This has been a loooooong warm season. Very long especially after the crappy winter we had.

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Well the first time this season there is agreement with the models on maybe,  maybe a significant cool down coming in two weeks. CurrentlyI put about 25 percent trust in this because the pattern has been ripe to just keep roasting.  But there may be some light at the end of the tunnel. Just maybe. 

Honestly the 12Z GFS has most of us at or below normal from next Wed until the end of the run, its not 2 weeks out its 4 days out......it is overdone at the end of the run I think it has frost in the Ohio Valley and lows in the mid to upper 40's for 3 nights in a row for most of GA/NC/SC to end the run....the 00Z and 12Z runs are always colder than the 06Z and 18Z runs too so I am sure the run coming up will be warmer....still the pattern is changing and summer will be over before the end of Sept for most of us. 

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4 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Honestly the 12Z GFS has most of us at or below normal from next Wed until the end of the run, its not 2 weeks out its 4 days out......it is overdone at the end of the run I think it has frost in the Ohio Valley and lows in the mid to upper 40's for 3 nights in a row for most of GA/NC/SC to end the run....the 00Z and 12Z runs are always colder than the 06Z and 18Z runs too so I am sure the run coming up will be warmer....still the pattern is changing and summer will be over before the end of Sept for most of us. 

I Disagree With The Heat For One Iv Seen The Models Look Good Some 8,9,10 Days Out And Then Completely Back Off from cooling down at all. I do agree we will see some cooling around the 21st but then by the end of the week a big portion of the SE looks to be right back in the 90s again. This is caused by a huge ridge right up the SE through the Ohio River valley because of the huge dip in the jet in the west. Also the euro weeklies have shown the east staying mild and for the most part dry up until the second week in October . Sure is it completely right? I'm sure it is not but it has done well so far. Our average high around here is in the mid 70s. Yeah that's not happening anytime soon or the next week for the way we are going. But hey just my opinion. 

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here is the temp loop for the recent 18Z run for the SE...it has 1 day over 85 IMBY and most in the low to mid 80's which is my normal average daytime high for this time of year so its not exactly torching

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016091718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=400

 

here it is from the 12Z run like I said the off hr runs are warmer usually...it never gets over 85 here IMBY on this run and the end of it is below normal

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016091718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=400 

 

Also the humidity is lower and the air is dryer so even the "hot" days are meh with DP's in the mid 60's....we will probably see some 3-4 day stretches of heat, I remember one year hanging a tree stands the weekend before hunting season and it was in the 90's and that is the second week of Oct so warm ups like that are possible...the cool shots we get now though are for real cool shots with legit fall air it wont be long before its 45 at night and 80 during the day 

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1 hour ago, packbacker said:

Please be correct...lots of begging going on this Sunday.

 

nam4km_ref_seus_31.png

Ugh another 3-5 inches IMBY if that is right but honestly the low is falling apart so this is probably way overdone at this point....we dont want that much rain at all here....it had finally gotten a bit dried out until Hermine and the ditches are just now drying up and the mosquitoes are horrible, a few showers will be fine anything more will suck. 

 

Temps looking fantastic in the long range though...pretty much average for the next week after today and then the last 4-5 days of the run barely breaking 75 for a high IMBY.

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Yeah Hopefully We can at least cool down into the 70 for the next week or two. At least back down to average and rain is extremely needed here in WNC we have a bad drought going in with not much rain for the past month. Everything is drying up. Yards look horrible and the leaves are turning because of stress not because of any cold air. 

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37 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah Hopefully We can at least cool down into the 70 for the next week or two. At least back down to average and rain is extremely needed here in WNC we have a bad drought going in with not much rain for the past month. Everything is drying up. Yards look horrible and the leaves are turning because of stress not because of any cold air. 

After this week it will be considerably cooler for NC, and even the next 5-7 days outside of the one hot day will be running around average....then it goes below average to end to run for most of NC is below 70 for the last 3-4 days of the run....the GFS has been pretty consistent with this cool down...the CMC has it too....if we only hit 68-70 for a high the first few days of Oct that would be 10 degrees below normal for highs IMBY....

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7 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

After this week it will be considerably cooler for NC, and even the next 5-7 days outside of the one hot day will be running around average....then it goes below average to end to run for most of NC is below 70 for the last 3-4 days of the run....the GFS has been pretty consistent with this cool down...the CMC has it too....if we only hit 68-70 for a high the first few days of Oct that would be 10 degrees below normal for highs IMBY....

Yeah I hope you are right. Looking at the euro it looks like we stay kind of unsettled for the next few days with a weak upper low that kind of forms. Then the huge trought crashes into the west coast on the 22nd. It does look like we may have a day or two of relatively warmer temps around the 25th and 26th before the trough pushes east. Seems like the heat is being beaten down on the models.

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6 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah I hope you are right. Looking at the euro it looks like we stay kind of unsettled for the next few days with a weak upper low that kind of forms. Then the huge trought crashes into the west coast on the 22nd. It does look like we may have a day or two of relatively warmer temps around the 25th and 26th before the trough pushes east. Seems like the heat is being beaten down on the models.

Yeah maybe this is for real this time. Hopefully we can get some decent rain soon too.

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34 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The overnight euro has pretty much replaced the trough with a high for the 8 to 10 day period.  There is just no consistency in that range and especially showing cool downs.  It flattens the trough out or shoots right over us. 

This could easily be a year where we go straight from AC to heat. The 18z GFS still shows a nice cool down during that period but as you stated no consistency. So I guess we'll believe it when we see it.  

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The models flip flopping is actually a good indicator that a pattern change is coming.....the CMC and GFS and Euro all have had the cooler pattern coming in...NC will see widespread lows in the 40's by the first of Oct....the pattern looks transient so expect warm days right before the fronts followed by 2-3 nice cool days before warming up again as the next front approaches.

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4 hours ago, FallsLake said:

This could easily be a year where we go straight from AC to heat. The 18z GFS still shows a nice cool down during that period but as you stated no consistency. So I guess we'll believe it when we see it.  

I will take it, even if it's only a 1-2 days.  This would be low in the low 50's I would guess with highs in the 70's.

 

ecmwf_T850a_us_10.png

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41 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah Euro went to a more favorable look for sure. Any cooler weather would be welcome at this point. I like the look but still suspect of this upcoming pattern.

On the GFS (and the Euro) it almost looks like a backdoor cold front. Being six days out that can easily get pushed away.  

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