weatherfide Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 On 9/8/2016 at 3:35 PM, Snowless in Carrollton said: It looks like the La Nina Watch was cancelled. It now appears that ENSO-Neutral conditions are favored for the upcoming winter. I wonder what implication this has on our weather ? I believe ENSO - Neutral is the best state for frozen precip chances in the SE. Any -NAO would be icing on the cake with that Pacific setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 Super dry soil moisture centered over Atlanta / north Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 There are some yards in my neighborhood that look as parched as I've seen them in my 11 years here at this site...long, hot, dry summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 26 minutes ago, griteater said: Super dry soil moisture centered over Atlanta / north Georgia We really need a tropical system to reverse this quick. I don't like the look of that before winter since it usually means a dry winter as well if it doesn't turn around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 8 hours ago, Met1985 said: I think this is the doing of the super El Nino of last year. The lag effect maybe that we where flooded with so much warm air last fall and winter that it just continued through the year. The LA nino looks pathetic at best. All I know is that this warmth is going to continue right through the rest of the month. Thanks, makes sense. I'm just so tired of this pattern. It's exhausting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 5 hours ago, GaStorm said: We really need a tropical system to reverse this quick. I don't like the look of that before winter since it usually means a dry winter as well if it doesn't turn around. Yep,. We are headed down a dangerous road right now. thank you for posting the images grit. It's bad like I've mentioned in some other posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 17, 2016 Author Share Posted September 17, 2016 Ray's Weather Center September 12 at 1:47pm · October outlook: Here’s one model’s take on October, which insinuates a continuation of warm and mostly dry weather for next month. And no, the winter outlook is not ready yet. Maps: https://www.facebook.com/Rays-Weather-Center-167617589938698/?fref=ts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 17, 2016 Author Share Posted September 17, 2016 Super dry soil moisture could be a wild card for extending the CAD into harder to reach areas of GA...more precip cooling near the surface....maybe colder...certainly a more pronounced wildcard that could influence not only winter weather...but many aspects of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 10 hours ago, Jaguars said: Thanks, makes sense. I'm just so tired of this pattern. It's exhausting. Yep. This summer was tied for the hottest summer on record in athens and not a single person I've told has been surprised. Saying Everyone is sick of it all is a real understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 45 minutes ago, Lookout said: Yep. This summer was tied for the hottest summer on record in athens and not a single person I've told has been surprised. Saying Everyone is sick of it all is a real understatement. Lol yep a huge understatement. This has been a loooooong warm season. Very long especially after the crappy winter we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 Well the first time this season there is agreement with the models on maybe, maybe a significant cool down coming in two weeks. Currently I put about 25 percent trust in this because the pattern has been ripe to just keep roasting. But there may be some light at the end of the tunnel. Just maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Well the first time this season there is agreement with the models on maybe, maybe a significant cool down coming in two weeks. CurrentlyI put about 25 percent trust in this because the pattern has been ripe to just keep roasting. But there may be some light at the end of the tunnel. Just maybe. Honestly the 12Z GFS has most of us at or below normal from next Wed until the end of the run, its not 2 weeks out its 4 days out......it is overdone at the end of the run I think it has frost in the Ohio Valley and lows in the mid to upper 40's for 3 nights in a row for most of GA/NC/SC to end the run....the 00Z and 12Z runs are always colder than the 06Z and 18Z runs too so I am sure the run coming up will be warmer....still the pattern is changing and summer will be over before the end of Sept for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 4 hours ago, downeastnc said: Honestly the 12Z GFS has most of us at or below normal from next Wed until the end of the run, its not 2 weeks out its 4 days out......it is overdone at the end of the run I think it has frost in the Ohio Valley and lows in the mid to upper 40's for 3 nights in a row for most of GA/NC/SC to end the run....the 00Z and 12Z runs are always colder than the 06Z and 18Z runs too so I am sure the run coming up will be warmer....still the pattern is changing and summer will be over before the end of Sept for most of us. I Disagree With The Heat For One Iv Seen The Models Look Good Some 8,9,10 Days Out And Then Completely Back Off from cooling down at all. I do agree we will see some cooling around the 21st but then by the end of the week a big portion of the SE looks to be right back in the 90s again. This is caused by a huge ridge right up the SE through the Ohio River valley because of the huge dip in the jet in the west. Also the euro weeklies have shown the east staying mild and for the most part dry up until the second week in October . Sure is it completely right? I'm sure it is not but it has done well so far. Our average high around here is in the mid 70s. Yeah that's not happening anytime soon or the next week for the way we are going. But hey just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 here is the temp loop for the recent 18Z run for the SE...it has 1 day over 85 IMBY and most in the low to mid 80's which is my normal average daytime high for this time of year so its not exactly torching http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016091718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=400 here it is from the 12Z run like I said the off hr runs are warmer usually...it never gets over 85 here IMBY on this run and the end of it is below normal http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016091718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=400 Also the humidity is lower and the air is dryer so even the "hot" days are meh with DP's in the mid 60's....we will probably see some 3-4 day stretches of heat, I remember one year hanging a tree stands the weekend before hunting season and it was in the 90's and that is the second week of Oct so warm ups like that are possible...the cool shots we get now though are for real cool shots with legit fall air it wont be long before its 45 at night and 80 during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 Please be correct...EPS doesn't it get that far SE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 Please be correct...lots of begging going on this Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 1 hour ago, packbacker said: Please be correct...lots of begging going on this Sunday. Ugh another 3-5 inches IMBY if that is right but honestly the low is falling apart so this is probably way overdone at this point....we dont want that much rain at all here....it had finally gotten a bit dried out until Hermine and the ditches are just now drying up and the mosquitoes are horrible, a few showers will be fine anything more will suck. Temps looking fantastic in the long range though...pretty much average for the next week after today and then the last 4-5 days of the run barely breaking 75 for a high IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 Yeah Hopefully We can at least cool down into the 70 for the next week or two. At least back down to average and rain is extremely needed here in WNC we have a bad drought going in with not much rain for the past month. Everything is drying up. Yards look horrible and the leaves are turning because of stress not because of any cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 37 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah Hopefully We can at least cool down into the 70 for the next week or two. At least back down to average and rain is extremely needed here in WNC we have a bad drought going in with not much rain for the past month. Everything is drying up. Yards look horrible and the leaves are turning because of stress not because of any cold air. After this week it will be considerably cooler for NC, and even the next 5-7 days outside of the one hot day will be running around average....then it goes below average to end to run for most of NC is below 70 for the last 3-4 days of the run....the GFS has been pretty consistent with this cool down...the CMC has it too....if we only hit 68-70 for a high the first few days of Oct that would be 10 degrees below normal for highs IMBY.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 7 minutes ago, downeastnc said: After this week it will be considerably cooler for NC, and even the next 5-7 days outside of the one hot day will be running around average....then it goes below average to end to run for most of NC is below 70 for the last 3-4 days of the run....the GFS has been pretty consistent with this cool down...the CMC has it too....if we only hit 68-70 for a high the first few days of Oct that would be 10 degrees below normal for highs IMBY.... Yeah I hope you are right. Looking at the euro it looks like we stay kind of unsettled for the next few days with a weak upper low that kind of forms. Then the huge trought crashes into the west coast on the 22nd. It does look like we may have a day or two of relatively warmer temps around the 25th and 26th before the trough pushes east. Seems like the heat is being beaten down on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 6 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah I hope you are right. Looking at the euro it looks like we stay kind of unsettled for the next few days with a weak upper low that kind of forms. Then the huge trought crashes into the west coast on the 22nd. It does look like we may have a day or two of relatively warmer temps around the 25th and 26th before the trough pushes east. Seems like the heat is being beaten down on the models. Yeah maybe this is for real this time. Hopefully we can get some decent rain soon too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 Lol on the euro we have a trough in the NE and out West while we hang onto the ridge around here. Then the euro just flattens the ridge out west which pushes the trough over us. We still should be around normal but that's what I was afraid of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 The overnight euro has pretty much replaced the trough with a high for the 8 to 10 day period. There is just no consistency in that range and especially showing cool downs. It flattens the trough out or shoots right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 34 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The overnight euro has pretty much replaced the trough with a high for the 8 to 10 day period. There is just no consistency in that range and especially showing cool downs. It flattens the trough out or shoots right over us. This could easily be a year where we go straight from AC to heat. The 18z GFS still shows a nice cool down during that period but as you stated no consistency. So I guess we'll believe it when we see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 The models flip flopping is actually a good indicator that a pattern change is coming.....the CMC and GFS and Euro all have had the cooler pattern coming in...NC will see widespread lows in the 40's by the first of Oct....the pattern looks transient so expect warm days right before the fronts followed by 2-3 nice cool days before warming up again as the next front approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Not a fan of all this rain, but looking forward to fall weather finally sticking around for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 4 hours ago, FallsLake said: This could easily be a year where we go straight from AC to heat. The 18z GFS still shows a nice cool down during that period but as you stated no consistency. So I guess we'll believe it when we see it. I will take it, even if it's only a 1-2 days. This would be low in the low 50's I would guess with highs in the 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 23 minutes ago, packbacker said: I will take it, even if it's only a 1-2 days. This would be low in the low 50's I would guess with highs in the 70's. We're close to that time of year where our average highs are in the upper 70s. So anything below normal should feel nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Yeah Euro went to a more favorable look for sure. Any cooler weather would be welcome at this point. I like the look but still suspect of this upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 41 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah Euro went to a more favorable look for sure. Any cooler weather would be welcome at this point. I like the look but still suspect of this upcoming pattern. On the GFS (and the Euro) it almost looks like a backdoor cold front. Being six days out that can easily get pushed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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