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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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Why isn't the NWS honking the horn harder for NC if this is a NC special.  FFC has indicated NE GA may get some light icing before the rain takes over.  I checked other NWS stations and it's very bearish for NC/SC/GA.

 

Im not trying to be a smartass but where is all of the confidence of an ice event coming from?  The potential event is still a ways off and looks like a change over to rain with major impacts to be very localized with the vast majority of the south getting a token ice event.  Even calling it a token event may be generous. 

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6 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Why isn't the NWS honking the horn harder for NC if this is a NC special.  FFC has indicated NE GA may get some light icing before the rain takes over.  I checked other NWS stations and it's very bearish for NC/SC/GA.

 

Im not trying to be a smartass but where is all of the confidence of an ice event coming from?  The potential event is still a ways off and looks like a change over to rain with major impacts to be very localized with the vast majority of the south getting a token ice event.  Even calling it a token event may be generous. 

It depends on which "threat" you're talking about. There is one potential minor icing event this weekend. The more serious threat, as it appears for now, is early next week. Basically, its still too far out for the NWS to be terribly concerned. If, and this is a big if, the current modeling holds for early next week, there will be more honking for the areas in question. 

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11 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Why isn't the NWS honking the horn harder for NC if this is a NC special.  FFC has indicated NE GA may get some light icing before the rain takes over.  I checked other NWS stations and it's very bearish for NC/SC/GA.

Im not trying to be a smartass but where is all of the confidence of an ice event coming from?  The potential event is still a ways off and looks like a change over to rain with major impacts to be very localized with the vast majority of the south getting a token ice event.  Even calling it a token event may be generous. 

I think the main cause of optimism is the strong signal for a storm early next week on the ECMWF.  This system has not yet made it in to the NWS forecast discussions because it is still several days out.  I agree that this weekend's system will most likely have minimal effects.

Edit:  Ninja-ed by Poimen.  :ph34r:

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25 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Why isn't the NWS honking the horn harder for NC if this is a NC special.  FFC has indicated NE GA may get some light icing before the rain takes over.  I checked other NWS stations and it's very bearish for NC/SC/GA.

 

Im not trying to be a smartass but where is all of the confidence of an ice event coming from?  The potential event is still a ways off and looks like a change over to rain with major impacts to be very localized with the vast majority of the south getting a token ice event.  Even calling it a token event may be generous. 

i am not sure i would say its confidence at this point, just a lot of hope lol.  most CAD icing events (for ne ga, at least) tend to follow a pattern with the modeling and how it shows the cold air wedging in, dewpoints, and precip.  it appears that they are showing a positive trend rather than negative - ie. cold enough and early enough onset, as well as a bit more than a few hundreths.  its still pretty far out at this point - winter wx in ga is awfully hard to come by these days it seems.

it has my attention in that its still on the table and at least looks like there is a chance - anything frozen before Christmas is a bonus. i might add that one the biggest ice storms i have witnessed in any area i have lived in was in mid December for ne ga so we have at least reached the time of the year when some icing is possible.

until it gets closer i am still watching with interest, but my optimism is greatly tempered at this time

as a side note, when would my interest increase a fair amount? when/if i see lookout lol.  when he starts watching then you know there is a pretty good chance.  he should show up if/when its warranted :)

 

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RAH from last night's discussion. Very typical wording, at this range, for this type of setup ( in which I agree they should say):

".....There are still some model differences in timing and progression of the front,
resulting in a low confidence forecast Sunday night through Tuesday.
Generally expect increasing chances for convection on Sunday as the
front approaches and moves into the area, then decreasing precip
chances (and temperatures) as the front moves through Central NC.
The forecast problem then becomes whether/where the front will stall
and when/if it will retreat northward thereafter. Both issues will
have a big impact of temperatures and precipitation."
 

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10 minutes ago, RubiksDestroyer said:

Who needs the DGEX? FWIW (not much), I just looked, and the 12km NAM has some flurries for NC at hour 84...

Well yeah, if you believe the precip depiction on the 12km NAM. According to the 12km NAM, I am, along with the entire state of VA is receiving rain right now. In reality, there's not a speck of rain on radar anywhere in the state of VA lol.

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IMO, it's time to start a thread for the friday night/Saturday morning threat. It looks like most of the modeling agrees on a solid freezing rain threat for Upslope CAD area's in GA/SC/NC with strong southerly flow at the surface squeezing out 1/10 to 3/10th's of liquid before temperatures make it to freezing during the day on Saturday. In fact, most models move out any significant precipitation by the time temperatures warm above freezing.

Keeping in mind that models generally erode CAD a little too fast this event could catch a lot of people by surprise. It looks to me like CAD area's of GA/SC/NC could wetbulb down in to the upper 20's early Saturday morning if the precip is heavy enough. That would be plenty cold enough to wreak havoc on the roads.

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