LithiaWx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Why isn't the NWS honking the horn harder for NC if this is a NC special. FFC has indicated NE GA may get some light icing before the rain takes over. I checked other NWS stations and it's very bearish for NC/SC/GA. Im not trying to be a smartass but where is all of the confidence of an ice event coming from? The potential event is still a ways off and looks like a change over to rain with major impacts to be very localized with the vast majority of the south getting a token ice event. Even calling it a token event may be generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 6 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Why isn't the NWS honking the horn harder for NC if this is a NC special. FFC has indicated NE GA may get some light icing before the rain takes over. I checked other NWS stations and it's very bearish for NC/SC/GA. Im not trying to be a smartass but where is all of the confidence of an ice event coming from? The potential event is still a ways off and looks like a change over to rain with major impacts to be very localized with the vast majority of the south getting a token ice event. Even calling it a token event may be generous. It depends on which "threat" you're talking about. There is one potential minor icing event this weekend. The more serious threat, as it appears for now, is early next week. Basically, its still too far out for the NWS to be terribly concerned. If, and this is a big if, the current modeling holds for early next week, there will be more honking for the areas in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 11 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Why isn't the NWS honking the horn harder for NC if this is a NC special. FFC has indicated NE GA may get some light icing before the rain takes over. I checked other NWS stations and it's very bearish for NC/SC/GA. Im not trying to be a smartass but where is all of the confidence of an ice event coming from? The potential event is still a ways off and looks like a change over to rain with major impacts to be very localized with the vast majority of the south getting a token ice event. Even calling it a token event may be generous. I think the main cause of optimism is the strong signal for a storm early next week on the ECMWF. This system has not yet made it in to the NWS forecast discussions because it is still several days out. I agree that this weekend's system will most likely have minimal effects. Edit: Ninja-ed by Poimen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Yep, the Fri night - Sat deal looks minor as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Well, here we go! DGEX WEENIE RUN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 25 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Why isn't the NWS honking the horn harder for NC if this is a NC special. FFC has indicated NE GA may get some light icing before the rain takes over. I checked other NWS stations and it's very bearish for NC/SC/GA. Im not trying to be a smartass but where is all of the confidence of an ice event coming from? The potential event is still a ways off and looks like a change over to rain with major impacts to be very localized with the vast majority of the south getting a token ice event. Even calling it a token event may be generous. i am not sure i would say its confidence at this point, just a lot of hope lol. most CAD icing events (for ne ga, at least) tend to follow a pattern with the modeling and how it shows the cold air wedging in, dewpoints, and precip. it appears that they are showing a positive trend rather than negative - ie. cold enough and early enough onset, as well as a bit more than a few hundreths. its still pretty far out at this point - winter wx in ga is awfully hard to come by these days it seems. it has my attention in that its still on the table and at least looks like there is a chance - anything frozen before Christmas is a bonus. i might add that one the biggest ice storms i have witnessed in any area i have lived in was in mid December for ne ga so we have at least reached the time of the year when some icing is possible. until it gets closer i am still watching with interest, but my optimism is greatly tempered at this time as a side note, when would my interest increase a fair amount? when/if i see lookout lol. when he starts watching then you know there is a pretty good chance. he should show up if/when its warranted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 RAH from last night's discussion. Very typical wording, at this range, for this type of setup ( in which I agree they should say): ".....There are still some model differences in timing and progression of the front, resulting in a low confidence forecast Sunday night through Tuesday. Generally expect increasing chances for convection on Sunday as thefront approaches and moves into the area, then decreasing precip chances (and temperatures) as the front moves through Central NC. The forecast problem then becomes whether/where the front will stall and when/if it will retreat northward thereafter. Both issues will have a big impact of temperatures and precipitation." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Interested to see if the CMC and Euro brings the ICE for next weeks potential event further south in the Southern CAD regions. High pressure seems to be slowing down in previous runs. Hate to see 1" ice over VA and northern Border counties of NC. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Pretty decent agreement on the euro ensembles with a 70% chance of the 32º or below isotherm roughly located on 85 through NC with a 30-40% chance of half an inch of QPF or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 It's a 7 day threat! Hard to get interested at this point, just cause the Euro and ensembles are on board. Tomorrow models could have 60 degrees and rain next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 That Euro run is a beauty. Banana high <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 35 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Well, here we go! DGEX WEENIE RUN!!! I knew that the DGEX screen shots would come out eventually. Good to see some threats before Christmas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 How long before the euro folds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Who needs the DGEX? FWIW (not much), I just looked, and the 12km NAM has some flurries for NC at hour 84... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 8 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: How long before the euro folds? About 3 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 10 minutes ago, RubiksDestroyer said: Who needs the DGEX? FWIW (not much), I just looked, and the 12km NAM has some flurries for NC at hour 84... Well yeah, if you believe the precip depiction on the 12km NAM. According to the 12km NAM, I am, along with the entire state of VA is receiving rain right now. In reality, there's not a speck of rain on radar anywhere in the state of VA lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 The same general idea has been on modeling for a couple of days now. That high looks extremely stout and you guys will need great timing (when is that NOT needed in the south), but I think the idea of a potentially disruptive ice event has legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 IMO, it's time to start a thread for the friday night/Saturday morning threat. It looks like most of the modeling agrees on a solid freezing rain threat for Upslope CAD area's in GA/SC/NC with strong southerly flow at the surface squeezing out 1/10 to 3/10th's of liquid before temperatures make it to freezing during the day on Saturday. In fact, most models move out any significant precipitation by the time temperatures warm above freezing. Keeping in mind that models generally erode CAD a little too fast this event could catch a lot of people by surprise. It looks to me like CAD area's of GA/SC/NC could wetbulb down in to the upper 20's early Saturday morning if the precip is heavy enough. That would be plenty cold enough to wreak havoc on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Also the 84hr NAM panel is showing temp's in the low 30's with dewpoints in the single digits Saturday at 7pm. If that is the case, we will definitely see a period of freezing rain later that night assuming qpf outputs are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Looks like this could get ugly day 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Looks like this could get ugly day 6+. 1028 line typically the line for frz precip? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Definite a trend towards ice: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 12z GFS phases and closes off the trough over the 4 corners with a steady SW flow over the southeast states and has a prolonged light icing event for the triad up into southern VA from Mon morn to Tues morn...run still coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, TiltedStorm said: 1028 line typically the line for frz precip? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk No, that's MLSP plot. GFS does erode 2m's quickly, looks like a wave is trying to ride up spine of apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Goes over to rain...a prolonged rain light rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Goes over to rain...a prolonged rain light rain event Yep, alot of 33-34F rain. But more precip this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Goes over to rain...a prolonged rain light rain event Awesome! Cold rain! Bad Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Cold Rain special... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 CMC also looks like it wants to bury the wave in the SW...light rain hangs to the south then the warmth surges north as the wave kicks out into a big cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Cold Rain special... That's after a lot of precip has fallen with temps below freezing tho.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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