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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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44 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

My favorite are winter threats where the precip is moving in from Texas and high pressure has one foot on the Jersey Shore.

lol, well we've timed them right in the past with no blocking...but the system usually comes in along the gulf.  I'm not torn up about that, timing issues are standard practice in the SE. My anxiety is hoping that SE ridging and consolidated PV shows signs of breaking down quickly.  It's like going up by 2 in the NFL on the road and you leave 2 minutes on the board for the other team to march down the field and they only need a field goal....and you're the NY Giants.  Just nerve racking. :yikes:

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5 minutes ago, griteater said:

Going back to November, we've had 3 different patterns in the North Pacific:

Nov: Gulf of Alaska trough...widespread warmth across the country

Early Dec: W Alaska ridge...cold shots delivered into the U.S., but centered over the northern Rockies and upper midwest

Late Dec Ensemble Forecast: +EPO, Alaska trough, warmth in the East / SE

I think we will continue to see a variable North Pacific pattern this winter, but the one thing that would tilt the scales more toward +EPO warmth would be a big +AO...need to avoid that scenario

 

Here's a map showing the month to date temperatures + the 7 day GFS forecast...

veabrb.gif

The east is going to finish AN for Dec.  Going to look a lot like CFS predicted.   Every month since June has been AN, can we really go 9-10 months in a row AN.   If we aren't going to get blocking I assume just roast this winter, tired of these sleet storms.

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201612.gif

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

Euro/GFS Forecasted Highs on Friday...

Asheville: 27/29

GSP: 33/33

Charlotte: 31/32

Raleigh: 30/30

Yeah that is probably one of the most frustrating parts of winter around here every year. We can get short lived cold blasts then within 24 -48 hours (just in time for moisture to arrive) we warm up 20-30 degrees.

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6 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

I guess 5 days out is considered mid-range?  6Z is pictured first, latest 12Z is pictured 2nd.  I would call this a potential ice storm.

ICE_monday_12th_6z_126h_counties.JPG

ICE_monday_12th_12z_126h_counties.JPG

That's some super dry and super cold air in place for Friday and Friday night, if precip gets in earlier than expected, there could be a surprise! The ground should be frozen!?

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5 minutes ago, griteater said:

It's a helluva fight...a 1044mb sfc high over New England with a 594dm ridge over south Florida.  Big ridges beat up on big sfc highs  :lol:

I guess if we get this big HP and weak wave we could get some ice, probably significant as the air mass is so cold.  But with how progressive the pattern is it's hard to imagine the timing working out so perfectly like it's shown. 

Screen Shot 2016-12-12 at 2.15.46 PM.png

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4 minutes ago, packbacker said:

I guess if we get this big HP and weak wave we could get some ice, probably significant as the air mass is so cold.  But with how progressive the pattern is it's hard to imagine the timing working out so perfectly like it's shown. 

Screen Shot 2016-12-12 at 2.15.46 PM.png

I think Grit said it best, we need a big sprawling high, from the plains to the NE, to get us our best chances at frozen! This may do the trick, if it's correct!?

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