SnowNiner Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 44 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: My favorite are winter threats where the precip is moving in from Texas and high pressure has one foot on the Jersey Shore. lol, well we've timed them right in the past with no blocking...but the system usually comes in along the gulf. I'm not torn up about that, timing issues are standard practice in the SE. My anxiety is hoping that SE ridging and consolidated PV shows signs of breaking down quickly. It's like going up by 2 in the NFL on the road and you leave 2 minutes on the board for the other team to march down the field and they only need a field goal....and you're the NY Giants. Just nerve racking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 5 minutes ago, griteater said: Going back to November, we've had 3 different patterns in the North Pacific: Nov: Gulf of Alaska trough...widespread warmth across the country Early Dec: W Alaska ridge...cold shots delivered into the U.S., but centered over the northern Rockies and upper midwest Late Dec Ensemble Forecast: +EPO, Alaska trough, warmth in the East / SE I think we will continue to see a variable North Pacific pattern this winter, but the one thing that would tilt the scales more toward +EPO warmth would be a big +AO...need to avoid that scenario Here's a map showing the month to date temperatures + the 7 day GFS forecast... The east is going to finish AN for Dec. Going to look a lot like CFS predicted. Every month since June has been AN, can we really go 9-10 months in a row AN. If we aren't going to get blocking I assume just roast this winter, tired of these sleet storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I think we in the Carolinas atleast, finish below normal for December. This Thursday and Friday and last weekends cold shot, will be enough, imo, unless we really torch in the upper 60s to 70s for a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Euro/GFS Forecasted Highs on Friday... Asheville: 27/29 GSP: 33/33 Charlotte: 31/32 Raleigh: 30/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 12 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro/GFS Forecasted Highs on Friday... Asheville: 27/29 GSP: 33/33 Charlotte: 31/32 Raleigh: 30/30 Ha, it's a tease, we get all in to the winter feel, then Christmas week it's 70. Mother nature says....sike!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 hour ago, griteater said: Euro/GFS Forecasted Highs on Friday... Asheville: 27/29 GSP: 33/33 Charlotte: 31/32 Raleigh: 30/30 Yeah that is probably one of the most frustrating parts of winter around here every year. We can get short lived cold blasts then within 24 -48 hours (just in time for moisture to arrive) we warm up 20-30 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Still think a bearing ridge with some effects of the +PDO will return sometime this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Still think a bearing ridge with some effects of the +PDO will return sometime this winter. That's a pretty safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Please be right GFS op... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Please be right GFS op... Split that baby in half!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Please be right GFS op... -forgive me but what does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, TiltedStorm said: -forgive me but what does that mean? The Polar Vortex being disturbed by warming in the stratosphere. With enough warming, the PV will split in half, and hopefully send a lobe over to our side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Funny how the 12z gfs which has been advertising AN Christmas week, says sike. Model will play you like a yo yo if your not carefull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Looks like the Euro, Canadian, and GFS are all showing potential for ice around here next Monday/Tuesday. I know this weekend's storm doesn't look like it's going to happen now, but we still have something to watch out for 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 That map verbatim would be SSW event with a deep cold outbreak on the east coast. The GFS has teased this all season long, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 13 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Funny how the 12z gfs which has been advertising AN Christmas week, says sike. Model will play you like a yo yo if your not carefull. Saw that.....anything's possible at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, Jon said: That map verbatim would be SSW event with a deep cold outbreak on the east coast. The GFS has teased this all season long, however. LOL...yep. I wonder what we were saying when the week of Xmas 2013 was showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I guess 5 days out is considered mid-range? 6Z is pictured first, latest 12Z is pictured 2nd. I would call this a potential ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 6 minutes ago, HWY316wx said: I guess 5 days out is considered mid-range? 6Z is pictured first, latest 12Z is pictured 2nd. I would call this a potential ice storm. That's some super dry and super cold air in place for Friday and Friday night, if precip gets in earlier than expected, there could be a surprise! The ground should be frozen!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 That's also a bullseye over Shetleys house!! Cant happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 24 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That's also a bullseye over Shetleys house!! Cant happen! You never want to be in the bullseye 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 You'd think with all the potential the models have been showing, we're bound to score with one of them (hopefully.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: You'd think with all the potential the models have been showing, we're bound to score with one of them (hopefully.) The major ice storm day 7-8 on the Euro has a chance I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: The major ice storm day 7-8 on the Euro has a chance I guess... It's a helluva fight...a 1044mb sfc high over New England with a 594dm ridge over south Florida. Big ridges beat up on big sfc highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: The major ice storm day 7-8 on the Euro has a chance I guess... All we can ask for is a chance. If the models are showing one, just have to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 5 minutes ago, griteater said: It's a helluva fight...a 1044mb sfc high over New England with a 594dm ridge over south Florida. Big ridges beat up on big sfc highs I guess if we get this big HP and weak wave we could get some ice, probably significant as the air mass is so cold. But with how progressive the pattern is it's hard to imagine the timing working out so perfectly like it's shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I know Grit posted this...but Friday is low in the teens and high of 30F. Saturday is high in the mid 60's. Looks at Sunday's temps. Talk about strong SER's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: I guess if we get this big HP and weak wave we could get some ice, probably significant as the air mass is so cold. But with how progressive the pattern is it's hard to imagine the timing working out so perfectly like it's shown. I think Grit said it best, we need a big sprawling high, from the plains to the NE, to get us our best chances at frozen! This may do the trick, if it's correct!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 20s in TN and 70s in NC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 10 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: 20s in TN and 70s in NC lol Actually low 40s here in the foothills of NC while 70s east of 77 in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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