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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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13 minutes ago, griteater said:

 

Yes, it's a peer-reviewed paper.  As was stated, it's a correlation between the snow cover advance and the AO...not which locales get cold weather.

http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers/CohenandJones_GRL11.pdf

I stand corrected on the paper.  That being said, if the hypothesis is that anomalous Siberian snow cover leads to negative AO, then this by default gives you at least partial localization, as it is well known which areas tend to receive BN temps due to negative AO.  So far, no dice.

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2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I stand corrected on the paper.  That being said, if the hypothesis is that anomalous Siberian snow cover leads to negative AO, then this by default gives you at least partial localization, as it is well known which areas tend to receive BN temps due to negative AO.  So far, no dice.

Yes, agree on the tendencies with the AO

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Need this high to remain in place. Ways to and this is only one item.
d7c260bfcfd3a602716b326e4210f6de.png

Only 8 days out (...sounds familiar). The 6z GFS is now showing something. Not where we want to be but just maybe this trends better for us. **it's all we can do is keeping hoping for the next event...

 

12-12-2016 6-31-20 AM.jpg





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33 minutes ago, Jon said:


00z is an ice storm 186-192hrs for RDU and north. Around 1/2" ice

What's up with the Euro? It shows below freezing and about .5 inches of precip but doesn't show a bit of accumulation. Strange. Doesn't the Total Snow output for the Euro on WeatherBELL include ice?

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What's up with the Euro? It shows below freezing and about .5 inches of precip but doesn't show a bit of accumulation. Strange. Doesn't the Total Snow output for the Euro on WeatherBELL include ice?


that issue had been correct. it no longer counts ice as snow

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58 minutes ago, packbacker said:

How do we get out of this mess...I guess it could be worse. 

Considering we are Below normal for the month and highly likely we'll end up Dec in the BN range, it could be alot worse. It's December so remeber. But I get your drift, need some tinkering over the Hollidays so we can get what we all crave and thats winter precip. These overruning events will be occuring futher south as we get into January and probably offer us our best chance to see frozen. Hopefully the Cold , pv can stay on our side of the globe.

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1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

Considering we are Below normal for the month and highly likely we'll end up Dec in the BN range, it could be alot worse. It's December so remeber. But I get your drift, need some tinkering over the Hollidays so we can get what we all crave and thats winter precip. These overruning events will be occuring futher south as we get into January and probably offer us our best chance to see frozen. Hopefully the Cold , pv can stay on our side of the globe.

Captain Optimism, I like you!!! And you are exactly right January and February is our months so to speak, anything in December is a bonus...................  :snowman:

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7 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Considering we are Below normal for the month and highly likely we'll end up Dec in the BN range, it could be alot worse. It's December so remeber. But I get your drift, need some tinkering over the Hollidays so we can get what we all crave and thats winter precip. These overruning events will be occuring futher south as we get into January and probably offer us our best chance to see frozen. Hopefully the Cold , pv can stay on our side of the globe.

I would imagine we will get a period in Jan/Feb of wintery potential.  Worst case it's frisbee golf weather and we enjoy being outside.  Not the worst thing in the world...

 

 

Screen Shot 2016-12-12 at 8.25.39 AM.png

Screen Shot 2016-12-12 at 8.25.47 AM.png

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I guess the threat for next weekend died pretty quick.  Anytime I see a low go up west of the Apps, I'm highly skeptical of anything wintry for MBY, even with a high modeled in a good place.  

Anyway, yeah the long range looks pretty terrible for the SE, even to my novice eyes.  Let's hope it's a short term transitional blip going into early/mid January. 

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19 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

I guess the threat for next weekend died pretty quick.  Anytime I see a low go up west of the Apps, I'm highly skeptical of anything wintry for MBY, even with a high modeled in a good place.  

Anyway, yeah the long range looks pretty terrible for the SE, even to my novice eyes.  Let's hope it's a short term transitional blip going into early/mid January. 

For CAD events I would always be skeptical if I didn't live between I-77 and I-26 in WNC 

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In regards to these "threats"...before even looking at what the models depict at the surface, we need to look at the indices. Without Atlantic blocking, there's NOTHING to keep these fantasy high pressures from sliding offshore as the LP moves in.

They can show a CAD setup all they want, but without blocking, none of these threats will come to fruition.

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I guess the good thing is we are seeing threats show up on the models inside 10 days. It looks like the weekend threat is gone, but now we have an ice storm threat for Monday into Tuesday of next week. A lot better seeing these threats show up versus nothing at all. Hopefully, things will work out and some of them will come to fruition.

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51 minutes ago, packbacker said:

I would imagine we will get a period in Jan/Feb of wintery potential.  Worst case it's frisbee golf weather and we enjoy being outside.  Not the worst thing in the world...

Going back to November, we've had 3 different patterns in the North Pacific:

Nov: Gulf of Alaska trough...widespread warmth across the country

Early Dec: W Alaska ridge...cold shots delivered into the U.S., but centered over the northern Rockies and upper midwest

Late Dec Ensemble Forecast: +EPO, Alaska trough, warmth in the East / SE

I think we will continue to see a variable North Pacific pattern this winter, but the one thing that would tilt the scales more toward +EPO warmth would be a big +AO...need to avoid that scenario

 

Here's a map showing the month to date temperatures + the 7 day GFS forecast...

veabrb.gif

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