BIG FROSTY Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 8 minutes ago, griteater said: 00z GFS has big cutter and nothing. Canadian has big cutter with very light icing....but then has an ice storm that lasts 24 hours on Tues the 20th, lol. GFS has a weak suppressed system during this timeframe Gotta love the old Canadian. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 13 minutes ago, griteater said: Yes, it's a peer-reviewed paper. As was stated, it's a correlation between the snow cover advance and the AO...not which locales get cold weather. http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers/CohenandJones_GRL11.pdf I stand corrected on the paper. That being said, if the hypothesis is that anomalous Siberian snow cover leads to negative AO, then this by default gives you at least partial localization, as it is well known which areas tend to receive BN temps due to negative AO. So far, no dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I stand corrected on the paper. That being said, if the hypothesis is that anomalous Siberian snow cover leads to negative AO, then this by default gives you at least partial localization, as it is well known which areas tend to receive BN temps due to negative AO. So far, no dice. Yes, agree on the tendencies with the AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Guess the Euro sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 The last post in my forum was 4 hours ago. Either things look grim or there was a zombie apocalypse or both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 All in on the 20th event!! 17th is just the rainy appetizer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 42 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: All in on the 20th event!! 17th is just the rainy appetizer! Only 8 days out (...sounds familiar). The 6z GFS is now showing something. Not where we want to be but just maybe this trends better for us. **it's all we can do is keeping hoping for the next event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Need this high to remain in place. Ways to and this is only one item. Only 8 days out (...sounds familiar). The 6z GFS is now showing something. Not where we want to be but just maybe this trends better for us. **it's all we can do is keeping hoping for the next event... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 14 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Need this high to remain in place. Ways to and this is only one item Yep, not excited about the prospects but it is something to track in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Yep, not excited about the prospects but it is something to track in the coming days.Same here. Straws will be Grasped Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 How do we get out of this mess...I guess it could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Hey it's only 336 hours out. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Close the shades for a few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Guess the Euro sucked.00z is an ice storm 186-192hrs for RDU and north. Around 1/2" ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Euro on ice potential for next Mon night. Worth watching given high placement and current pattern. We'll see if it keeps it for 12z, long way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 33 minutes ago, Jon said: 00z is an ice storm 186-192hrs for RDU and north. Around 1/2" ice What's up with the Euro? It shows below freezing and about .5 inches of precip but doesn't show a bit of accumulation. Strange. Doesn't the Total Snow output for the Euro on WeatherBELL include ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 What's up with the Euro? It shows below freezing and about .5 inches of precip but doesn't show a bit of accumulation. Strange. Doesn't the Total Snow output for the Euro on WeatherBELL include ice?that issue had been correct. it no longer counts ice as snow Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 58 minutes ago, packbacker said: How do we get out of this mess...I guess it could be worse. Considering we are Below normal for the month and highly likely we'll end up Dec in the BN range, it could be alot worse. It's December so remeber. But I get your drift, need some tinkering over the Hollidays so we can get what we all crave and thats winter precip. These overruning events will be occuring futher south as we get into January and probably offer us our best chance to see frozen. Hopefully the Cold , pv can stay on our side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Considering we are Below normal for the month and highly likely we'll end up Dec in the BN range, it could be alot worse. It's December so remeber. But I get your drift, need some tinkering over the Hollidays so we can get what we all crave and thats winter precip. These overruning events will be occuring futher south as we get into January and probably offer us our best chance to see frozen. Hopefully the Cold , pv can stay on our side of the globe. Captain Optimism, I like you!!! And you are exactly right January and February is our months so to speak, anything in December is a bonus................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 7 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Considering we are Below normal for the month and highly likely we'll end up Dec in the BN range, it could be alot worse. It's December so remeber. But I get your drift, need some tinkering over the Hollidays so we can get what we all crave and thats winter precip. These overruning events will be occuring futher south as we get into January and probably offer us our best chance to see frozen. Hopefully the Cold , pv can stay on our side of the globe. I would imagine we will get a period in Jan/Feb of wintery potential. Worst case it's frisbee golf weather and we enjoy being outside. Not the worst thing in the world... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I guess the threat for next weekend died pretty quick. Anytime I see a low go up west of the Apps, I'm highly skeptical of anything wintry for MBY, even with a high modeled in a good place. Anyway, yeah the long range looks pretty terrible for the SE, even to my novice eyes. Let's hope it's a short term transitional blip going into early/mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 My favorite are winter threats where the precip is moving in from Texas and high pressure has one foot on the Jersey Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: I would imagine we will get a period in Jan/Feb of wintery potential. Worst case it's frisbee golf weather and we enjoy being outside. Not the worst thing in the world... Those images are awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 minutes ago, Stormcatt said: that issue had been correct. it no longer counts ice as snow Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Thanks. I wasn't aware of that. It would be nice if they would add a ZR/IP map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 19 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: I guess the threat for next weekend died pretty quick. Anytime I see a low go up west of the Apps, I'm highly skeptical of anything wintry for MBY, even with a high modeled in a good place. Anyway, yeah the long range looks pretty terrible for the SE, even to my novice eyes. Let's hope it's a short term transitional blip going into early/mid January. For CAD events I would always be skeptical if I didn't live between I-77 and I-26 in WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 In regards to these "threats"...before even looking at what the models depict at the surface, we need to look at the indices. Without Atlantic blocking, there's NOTHING to keep these fantasy high pressures from sliding offshore as the LP moves in. They can show a CAD setup all they want, but without blocking, none of these threats will come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said: Close the shades for a few weeks My anomaly image is worse than your anomaly image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I'm rooting for a monster -SAI next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I guess the good thing is we are seeing threats show up on the models inside 10 days. It looks like the weekend threat is gone, but now we have an ice storm threat for Monday into Tuesday of next week. A lot better seeing these threats show up versus nothing at all. Hopefully, things will work out and some of them will come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 51 minutes ago, packbacker said: I would imagine we will get a period in Jan/Feb of wintery potential. Worst case it's frisbee golf weather and we enjoy being outside. Not the worst thing in the world... Going back to November, we've had 3 different patterns in the North Pacific: Nov: Gulf of Alaska trough...widespread warmth across the country Early Dec: W Alaska ridge...cold shots delivered into the U.S., but centered over the northern Rockies and upper midwest Late Dec Ensemble Forecast: +EPO, Alaska trough, warmth in the East / SE I think we will continue to see a variable North Pacific pattern this winter, but the one thing that would tilt the scales more toward +EPO warmth would be a big +AO...need to avoid that scenario Here's a map showing the month to date temperatures + the 7 day GFS forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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