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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Man Grit, that's depressing! I've seen its suppose to warm up around Christmas, which is in this timeframe in your post. Do you think it's a temporary relaxation period and then back to cold in the New Year or are we looking at sustained warmth, in your opinion ?

I don't have the knowledge to say with any confidence....but I think our cold shots the rest of the winter are more likely to be Pacific driven than they are via -AO/-NAO.

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14 minutes ago, griteater said:

I don't have the knowledge to say with any confidence....but I think our cold shots the rest of the winter are more likely to be Pacific driven than they are via -AO/-NAO.

Grit, I agree with this if for no other reason than the fact that we are in a period of bad Atlantic winters.  This leaves us with the PNA and EPO to help us.  The crappy thing about the -EPO is that while it's definitely a good thing, without help from other domains, it dumps the cold more in the center of the country than the SE.  Unfortunately, there are no signs of a real +PNA in the foreseeable future.  And it looks like the SAI is yet another bust, so the AO isn't going to provide much assistance either, at least the way it looks now.

All the seasonals that have been showing a crappy winter look to have a better shot at being right than busting...at least at this point.

I'm not giving up on winter by any means, but there is nothing that is screaming "sustained cold pattern for the eastern US" at least through the balance of the month.

We're going to have to become very, very good at waiting this year.

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1 minute ago, pcbjr said:

Or next ....

Or the one after that, or....

I think in the next two To five years, we're going to start to see real winters return to the point that cold, snow, and ice will become much more commonplace in the SE than what we've seen over the last couple of decades.

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12 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Or the one after that, or....

I think in the next two To five years, we're going to start to see real winters return to the point that cold, snow, and ice will become much more commonplace in the SE than what we've seen over the last couple of decades.

Dude - I've only got so many walking years left!

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17 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

You need to move up here, my man!

Born in Wilmington; hang out all I can in Waynesville/Black Balsam/Cold Mtn; work down here doing a day job trying to be a decent lawyer for 33 years; spent 7 years on the lee side of Lake Michigan; hike the A/T and the Art Loeb whenever possible; work has me in a location, but someday ... I hope - NC takes me back

Winter is my dream

Hope you all get one 'cause Gainesville FL won't this year - 'less I'm totally wrong which I'd love to be ......

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"And it looks like the SAI is yet another bust"

I was never really impressed with that.  I never saw where it had any support from peer-reviewed meteorological literature.  That being said, did the SAI theory ever specify that it meant cold for the SE?  The midwest looks like they might have some significant cold this year.

In any event, the AO has been mostly positive in NH winter the last several years, which does reduce the probability of good, sustained cold for us.  It doesn't necessarily kill it, it just reduces the probability.

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47 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Or the one after that, or....

I think in the next two To five years, we're going to start to see real winters return to the point that cold, snow, and ice will become much more commonplace in the SE than what we've seen over the last couple of decades.

I am less optimistic.  I know that we are supposed to keep the AGW discussion elephant bottled up in its own thread but assuming that mainstream climate science is not completely off base, I fully expect that winter weather to become less and less common in my neck of the woods (central NC).  It was already pretty marginal to begin with.

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14 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I am less optimistic.  I know that we are supposed to keep the AGW discussion elephant bottled up in its own thread but assuming that mainstream climate science is not completely off base, I fully expect that winter weather to become less and less common in my neck of the woods (central NC).  It was already pretty marginal to begin with.

It's hard to say...if we were to get some consistent HLB and it still be AN temps and BN snowfall then I may start leaning to that.  But since mid/late 80's the AO/NAO has predominantly positive.  I really hope this is just a nightmare cycle and come next few years things change.  

Its clear the snowcover theory is garbage....well to put it nicely minimal. 

Looking at the charts below it's no secret why our best winters were in the 60's-80's.  

 

 

IMG_3365.GIF

IMG_3366.GIF

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40 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

Born in Wilmington; hang out all I can in Waynesville/Black Balsam/Cold Mtn; work down here doing a day job trying to be a decent lawyer for 33 years; spent 7 years on the lee side of Lake Michigan; hike the A/T and the Art Loeb whenever possible; work has me in a location, but someday ... I hope - NC takes me back

Winter is my dream

Hope you all get one 'cause Gainesville FL won't this year - 'less I'm totally wrong which I'd love to be ......

No way man! I'm from Haywood county! Waynesville, Balsam, and Cold Mountain are my neighborhood. 

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17 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I am less optimistic.  I know that we are supposed to keep the AGW discussion elephant bottled up in its own thread but assuming that mainstream climate science is not completely off base, I fully expect that winter weather to become less and less common in my neck of the woods (central NC).  It was already pretty marginal to begin with.

I'm of the opinion that we know a lot less than we think we do about how the climate is going to evolve in the years ahead.  I'm not trying to be a climate change skeptic or say that man isn't harming the environment.  Proponents of both sides are so certain of how things are going turn out.  Science has a habit of routinely humbling us.  That's as far as I'll go here wrt climate change.  I'm optimistic that we return to colder winters soon.

Regarding the SAI, it has no correlation to the SE, so far as I know.  It allegedly predicts the state of the AO, although if you just go with a +AO every year, you'd probably have a better record than the SAI's!

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45 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

Born in Wilmington; hang out all I can in Waynesville/Black Balsam/Cold Mtn; work down here doing a day job trying to be a decent lawyer for 33 years; spent 7 years on the lee side of Lake Michigan; hike the A/T and the Art Loeb whenever possible; work has me in a location, but someday ... I hope - NC takes me back

Winter is my dream

Hope you all get one 'cause Gainesville FL won't this year - 'less I'm totally wrong which I'd love to be ......

We'll take you back man.  Come on!

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10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I'm of the opinion that we know a lot less than we think we do about how the climate is going to evolve in the years ahead.  I'm not trying to be a climate change skeptic or say that man isn't harming the environment.  Proponents of both sides are so certain of how things are going turn out.  Science has a habit of routinely humbling us.  That's as far as I'll go here wrt climate change.  I'm optimistic that we return to colder winters soon.

Regarding the SAI, it has no correlation to the SE, so far as I know.  It allegedly predicts the state of the AO, although if you just go with a +AO every year, you'd probably have a better record than the SAI's!

Yep...who's to say the next 20 years we don't see extreme cold/snowy winters due to AGW.  It's clear climate change is real...whether it's man made is something we can't discuss here though :-).  

We can always hope for 2000/20002....crap Nina winters with one hit wonder for the SE. 

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3 minutes ago, SimeonNC said:

Damn are people really this pessimistic when December this year so far has been miles better than last year? So we won't see a ton of snow around Christmas, so what? We still have most of the winter left and it doesn't even look likely that it's gonna be all that warm. I'm surprised people here have their expectations so high when historically December was never a month for good winter storms.

I think that the pessimism comes from all the long range talk of early spring in February. Leaving us with the terrible odds of December and then January.

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28 minutes ago, packbacker said:

It's hard to say...if we were to get some consistent HLB and it still be AN temps and BN snowfall then I may start leaning to that.  But since mid/late 80's the AO/NAO has predominantly positive.  I really hope this is just a nightmare cycle and come next few years things change.  

Its clear the snowcover theory is garbage....well to put it nicely minimal. 

Looking at the charts below it's no secret why our best winters were in the 60's-80's.  

 

 

IMG_3365.GIF

IMG_3366.GIF

As you show, the pattern in the NAO/AO is clear, but one has to wonder if this pattern itself might be a manifestation of AGW.  My own personal anecdotal observation is that just seems "easier" for us to get stuck in warm patterns than it apparently used to be. 

Alright that's enough about AGW before I get booted from the thread.

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Just now, cbmclean said:

As you show, the pattern in the NAO/AO is clear, but one has to wonder if this pattern itself might be a manifestation of AGW.  My own personal anecdotal observation is that just seems "easier" for us to get stuck in warm patterns than it apparently used to be. 

Alright that's enough about AGW before I get booted from the thread.

That's actually a good point.  Lets hope your wrong though.... 

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2 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

I think that the pessimism comes from all the long range talk of early spring in February. Leaving us with the terrible odds of December and then January.

The pessimism is because of all the winter outlooks said winter will be front loaded! We know not to trust these, but we fall for it every single fall. We torched in November, anxiously awaited the 60 degree below normal temps in Asia to make it over here. They kind of are here now and we are cold, but no snow yet and everybody has shifted to the Christmas warm up, so we will likely be into early January, waiting on cold and snow

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3 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

The crappy thing about the -EPO is that while it's definitely a good thing, without help from other domains, it dumps the cold more in the center of the country than the SE.  

Agree Cold Rain on the EPO

2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

"And it looks like the SAI is yet another bust"

I was never really impressed with that.  I never saw where it had any support from peer-reviewed meteorological literature.  That being said, did the SAI theory ever specify that it meant cold for the SE?  The midwest looks like they might have some significant cold this year.

In any event, the AO has been mostly positive in NH winter the last several years, which does reduce the probability of good, sustained cold for us.  It doesn't necessarily kill it, it just reduces the probability.

Yes, it's a peer-reviewed paper.  As was stated, it's a correlation between the snow cover advance and the AO...not which locales get cold weather.

http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers/CohenandJones_GRL11.pdf

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46 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

My Accuweather forecast for Cary on Christmas DAY

 

DAY

65°HIRealFeel® 62°Precipitation 30%
 
Warm with plenty of clouds; chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm

Gotta wonder why the even bother putting out a 14 day lead temperature forecast.  That being said, it seems that models can sniff out torch events weeks in advance with the only problem that they underestimate the magnitude of the warmth so this will surely be the case here as well.

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