mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: That's the only way to ever know for sure. The Euro still wins it's fair share, but it does seem to cave to the GFS more than it used to with respect to SE winter events. We need a real event to track for Petes sake ! Discussing verification scores is lame! Now what the CMC showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: We need a real event to track for Petes sake ! Discussing verification scores is lame! Now what the CMC showing? Lol hot garbage. Somebody pull out the Navgem, for crying out loud. Or that French model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Lol hot garbage. Somebody pull out the Navgem, for crying out loud. Or that French model. CFSv2 46 day model, says buy a sleigh, if you live in the Carolinas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: CFSv2 46 day model, says buy a sleigh, if you live in the Carolinas! The CFS is terrible when it predicts cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 40 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Yes we do, Most times after a Ice event it's warmer weather for a while..... Which is actually a good thing after a major icestorm so all the ice can melt from the trees. Not so much after a snowstorm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, jshetley said: Which is actually a good thing after a major icestorm so all the ice can melt from the trees. Not so much after a snowstorm though. It seems like we will see neither anytime soon. It's very disappointing but not unexpected. Just maybe hope for seasonal for Xmas and call it a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 If we can't get winter weather, I'll take a Christmas week just like last year. Warm and wet. Cold weather without winter precip is useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Still a wide range of solutions on the table. It all depends on how quickly the precip arrives Saturday imo. A fast arrival before daybreak will lock in CAD. Delay the precip until afternoon or later and it's a cold rain for most everyone. Look at GFS ensembles below, a fair amount of timing and outcomes are shown. Models all have made some significant changes even today and we are 138+ hours out and trusting any one solution is not wise at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 I love it that this thread is labeled HOT! as that is exactly what the outlook is .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 6 minutes ago, pcbjr said: I love it that this thread is labeled HOT! as that is exactly what the outlook is .... I was just looking at the obs. Is it really 77 there? It's only 40 here. Honestly, I wouldn't mind a little warmth. This cold and dry is getting old fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 3 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I was just looking at the obs. Is it really 77 there? It's only 40 here. Honestly, I wouldn't mind a little warmth. This cold and dry is getting old fast. Yes, but its a cloudy and damp cool 77º since the breeze is SE coming from the Atlantic; supposed to 80º+ the next 3 days which ain't at all like December here; I'd trade you and Suches and Blairsville in a minute for a 2:00 PM temp of 40º - 40º not being an unheard of temp here this time of day, this time of year, but I fear, not going to happen this year or into '17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Yes, but its a cloudy and damp cool 77º since the breeze is SE coming from the Atlantic; supposed to 80º+ the next 3 days which ain't at all like December here; I'd trade you and Suches and Blairsville in a minute for a 2:00 PM temp of 40º - 40º not being an unheard of temp here this time of day, this time of year, but I fear, not going to happen this year or into '17. I'll take 77 and cloudy over 40 and cloudy any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I'll take 77 and cloudy over 40 and cloudy any day. Trade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 GFS Para is quite icy. Brings a 6-12 hour ice event for CAD regions on Saturday then on Monday brings more ice with the arctic front overrunning precip. Then the 19th more ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Interesting with the GFS Para; may be sniffing something out. Hasn't been all that wintry in previous runs. Definitely have to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlweatherman Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Interesting with the GFS Para; may be sniffing something out. Hasn't been all that wintry in previous runs. Definitely have to monitor. Yes indeed! Also, compare this latest run of the GFS Parallel to the previous 6z run and you'll notice that the accumulation of snow/ice shifted southward. The 6z run had a huge slug of nearly 1 ft of snow over northern Kentucky. However, now on the latest run that same significant line of accumulations is over southern Tennessee and Mississippi/Alabama! You'll also notice an uptick in snow/ice accumulation over the North Carolina, South Carolina, and Northern Georgia (near Atlanta metro area as well)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Did the Euro come in colder, I just noticed twc dropped the temps for Friday significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlweatherman Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, J.C. said: Did the Euro come in colder, I just noticed twc dropped the temps for Friday significantly. Not sure, but one has to wonder if TWC uses the GFS or Euro for their forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 11 minutes ago, atlweatherman said: Not sure, but one has to wonder if TWC uses the GFS or Euro for their forecast... The use the Euro predominantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 33 minutes ago, J.C. said: Did the Euro come in colder, I just noticed twc dropped the temps for Friday significantly. My forecast on weather.com shows 60% chance of freezing rain ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 33 minutes ago, J.C. said: The use the Euro predominantly. They actually use the GFS word for word! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlweatherman Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 13 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: They actually use the GFS word for word! That's what I thought! lol... However, on occasions they do show the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 4 hours ago, jshetley said: If we can't get winter weather, I'll take a Christmas week just like last year. Warm and wet. Cold weather without winter precip is useless. We had a poll about that a while back. If I remember correctly, the cold and dry is better camp won definitively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 8 minutes ago, atlweatherman said: That's what I thought! lol... However, on occasions they do show the EURO. They show the Euro often on air, and have said its the more reliable model, but they use GFS , verbatim, on their 10 day and local forecasts! Go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Lot of work required to fix this pattern (8-13 day avg). Strat PV is strengthening. The early weak strat PV hasn't translated into an early winter -AO regime as I would have anticipated. AO was decidedly negative in Oct and early Nov, but has been more neutral since then, and will be on the increase in the near term. We certainly don't want to see a mega +AO take hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 14 minutes ago, griteater said: Lot of work required to fix this pattern (8-13 day avg). Strat PV is strengthening. The early weak strat PV hasn't translated into an early winter -AO regime as I would have anticipated. AO was decidedly negative in Oct and early Nov, but has been more neutral since then, and will be on the increase in the near term. We certainly don't want to see a mega +AO take hold. Well, that's disappointing. I would really like at least a seasonable Christmas Eve/Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 15 minutes ago, griteater said: Lot of work required to fix this pattern (8-13 day avg). Strat PV is strengthening. The early weak strat PV hasn't translated into an early winter -AO regime as I would have anticipated. AO was decidedly negative in Oct and early Nov, but has been more neutral since then, and will be on the increase in the near term. We certainly don't want to see a mega +AO take hold. Man Grit, that's depressing! I've seen its suppose to warm up around Christmas, which is in this timeframe in your post. Do you think it's a temporary relaxation period and then back to cold in the New Year or are we looking at sustained warmth, in your opinion ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 3 hours ago, snowlover91 said: GFS Para is quite icy. Brings a 6-12 hour ice event for CAD regions on Saturday then on Monday brings more ice with the arctic front overrunning precip. Then the 19th more ice Awful lot of green on that map with a 1049 hp over southern ID, connecting to a 1043 hp over western IL, connecting to a 1038 hp over northern NY. I haven't looked at any upper air stuff, but I will take that surface map verbatim any day of the week. That's a snowstorm. Unfortunately, on the 19th, we'll be looking at one lonely 1032 hp over northwestern ID, with a phat 980 mb lp bombing out over IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I think it's still too far out to say if Christmas is going to be warm. The overall pattern may average above normal (for a 5 or 10 day period) but individual days could still be below or normal temp wise. Using the 18z GFS as an example it has Christmas eve and the first part of Christmas with 850 temps below freezing for most of NC. Right now I would take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 JB says if what he's seeing comes true his old friend JMA is going to right from the other day BLOW TORCH, after this up coming cold late week.............. UGLY as it get's he says!!! Some of you enjoy your few pellets Friday night... Here's my current forecast, which will change 50 times before Friday... FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. .SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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