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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

That's the only way to ever know for sure.  The Euro still wins it's fair share, but it does seem to cave to the GFS more than it used to with respect to SE winter events.

We need a real event to track for Petes sake ! Discussing verification scores is lame! Now what the CMC showing?

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1 minute ago, jshetley said:

Which is actually a good thing after a major icestorm so all the ice can melt from the trees. Not so much after a snowstorm though.

It seems like we will see neither anytime soon.  It's very disappointing but not unexpected.  Just maybe hope for seasonal for Xmas and call it a month.

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Still a wide range of solutions on the table. It all depends on how quickly the precip arrives Saturday imo. A fast arrival before daybreak will lock in CAD. Delay the precip until afternoon or later and it's a cold rain for most everyone. Look at GFS ensembles below, a fair amount of timing and outcomes are shown. Models all have made some significant changes even today and we are 138+ hours out and trusting any one solution is not wise at this point. 

IMG_1557.PNG

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3 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I was just looking at the obs. Is it really 77 there? It's only 40 here. Honestly, I wouldn't mind a little warmth. This cold and dry is getting old fast.

Yes, but its a cloudy and damp cool 77º since the breeze is SE coming from the Atlantic; supposed to 80º+ the next 3 days which ain't at all like December here; I'd trade you and Suches and Blairsville in a minute for a 2:00 PM temp of 40º -  40º not being an unheard of temp here this time of day, this time of year, but I fear, not going to happen this year or into '17.

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2 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

Yes, but its a cloudy and damp cool 77º since the breeze is SE coming from the Atlantic; supposed to 80º+ the next 3 days which ain't at all like December here; I'd trade you and Suches and Blairsville in a minute for a 2:00 PM temp of 40º -  40º not being an unheard of temp here this time of day, this time of year, but I fear, not going to happen this year or into '17.

I'll take 77 and cloudy over 40 and cloudy any day. 

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6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Interesting with the GFS Para; may be sniffing something out. Hasn't been all that wintry in previous runs. Definitely have to monitor. 

Yes indeed!

 

Also, compare this latest run of the GFS Parallel to the previous 6z run and you'll notice that the accumulation of snow/ice shifted southward. The 6z run had a huge slug of nearly 1 ft of snow over northern Kentucky. However, now on the latest run that same significant line of accumulations is over southern Tennessee and Mississippi/Alabama! You'll also notice an uptick in snow/ice accumulation over the North Carolina, South Carolina, and Northern Georgia (near Atlanta metro area as well)!

6z.JPG

12z.JPG

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4 hours ago, jshetley said:

If we can't get winter weather, I'll take a Christmas week just like last year. Warm and wet. Cold weather without winter precip is useless.

We had a poll about that a while back.  If I remember correctly, the cold and dry is better camp won definitively.

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Lot of work required to fix this pattern (8-13 day avg).  Strat PV is strengthening.  The early weak strat PV hasn't translated into an early winter -AO regime as I would have anticipated.  AO was decidedly negative in Oct and early Nov, but has been more neutral since then, and will be on the increase in the near term.  We certainly don't want to see a mega +AO take hold.

2nv4661.gif

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14 minutes ago, griteater said:

Lot of work required to fix this pattern (8-13 day avg).  Strat PV is strengthening.  The early weak strat PV hasn't translated into an early winter -AO regime as I would have anticipated.  AO was decidedly negative in Oct and early Nov, but has been more neutral since then, and will be on the increase in the near term.  We certainly don't want to see a mega +AO take hold.

2nv4661.gif

Well, that's disappointing.  I would really like at least a seasonable Christmas Eve/Christmas Day.

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15 minutes ago, griteater said:

Lot of work required to fix this pattern (8-13 day avg).  Strat PV is strengthening.  The early weak strat PV hasn't translated into an early winter -AO regime as I would have anticipated.  AO was decidedly negative in Oct and early Nov, but has been more neutral since then, and will be on the increase in the near term.  We certainly don't want to see a mega +AO take hold.

2nv4661.gif

Man Grit, that's depressing! I've seen its suppose to warm up around Christmas, which is in this timeframe in your post. Do you think it's a temporary relaxation period and then back to cold in the New Year or are we looking at sustained warmth, in your opinion ?

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3 hours ago, snowlover91 said:

GFS Para is quite icy. Brings a 6-12 hour ice event for CAD regions on Saturday then on Monday brings more ice with the arctic front overrunning precip. 

Then the 19th more ice 

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

Awful lot of green on that map with a 1049 hp over southern ID, connecting to a 1043 hp over western IL, connecting to a 1038 hp over northern NY.  I haven't looked at any upper air stuff, but I will take that surface map verbatim any day of the week.  That's a snowstorm.

Unfortunately, on the 19th, we'll be looking at one lonely 1032 hp over northwestern ID, with a phat 980 mb lp bombing out over IA.

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I think it's still too far out to say if Christmas is going to be warm. The overall pattern may average above normal (for a 5 or 10 day period) but individual days could still be below or normal temp wise. Using the 18z GFS as an example it has Christmas eve and the first part of Christmas with 850 temps below freezing for most of NC. Right now I would take it and run.  

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JB says if what he's seeing comes true his old friend JMA is going to right from the other day BLOW TORCH, after this up coming cold late week.............. UGLY as it get's he says!!!  Some of you enjoy your few pellets Friday night... Here's my current forecast, which will change 50 times before Friday...

 

FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
.SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING.
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
 

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