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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion

NWNC2015

By NWNC2015,
in Southeastern States

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

Yep last nights. It's gonna ice next weekend. unfortunately not snow like we would all like, but 5h Screams overuning with lp apps runner and sturdy cad in place. After the past 5 December's we've had I'll gladly take this current one and take my chances. reality of history/climo should tell us you can't find but a few more that gave better opportunities then hand we got dealt.

So be of good cheer and watch the Packers play in ankle deep snow to day . 

 

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

JB just posted on Twitter that the whole country will be cold/ below normal, except the Southeast! :(

we better prepare for the next ice age!

Yep, That's what he's saying!! Gotta come to grips that a major winter storm in the SE is a freak thing anymore...................

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burrel2

burrel2

Posted
Posted

What does verification scores for the entire Northern Hemisphere have to do with the South East?  Yes, the Euro is consistently the best model at predicting 500mb height fields across the NH. But find me a verification scored for 500mb that just encompasses North America, or better yet, just the South East.

 

Do you think it's possible the Euro might be greatly superior to the GFS in, let's say, Europe. While it might actually be worse across North America? I think in all likelihood each model will have areas within the  Northern Hemisphere where it performs better or worse. Agree or Disagree?

Without access to this data we can't truly say that the Euro is a more accurate model for our sensible weather in the South East.

Quote


I don't understand this concept. The GFS is an inferior model, there's no questioning that. Mesoscale modeling and IMBY type weather, maybe? Maybe it's the luck of the draw or the bias in the observer? Not the truth with big picture patterns and verification scores. Euro has been ruling the roost for a very, very long time. 34bd1166b88330a153bd8d83a1569898.png

 

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

What does verification scores for the entire Northern Hemisphere have to do with the South East?  Yes, the Euro is consistently the best model at predicting 500mb height fields across the NH. But find me a verification scored for 500mb that just encompasses North America, or better yet, just the South East.

 

Do you think it's possible the Euro might be greatly superior to the GFS in, let's say, Europe. While it might actually be worse across North America? I think in all likelihood each model will have areas within the  Northern Hemisphere where it performs better or worse. Agree or Disagree?

Without access to this data we can't truly say that the Euro is a more accurate model for our sensible weather in the South East.

 

Everything is connected in the northern hemisphere.  What happens in Russia impacts what happens on this side of he globe.  I see your point but IMO the accuracy of the node depends on everything happening in the northern hemisphere.  The EURO is more accurate and has been for a very long time.  It's a superior model and it's easily proven. 

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burrel2

burrel2

Posted
Posted
Just now, LithiaWx said:

Everything is connected in the northern hemisphere.  What happens in Russia impacts what happens on this side of he globe.  I see your point but IMO the accuracy of the node depends on everything happening in the northern hemisphere.  The EURO is more accurate and has been for a very long time.  It's a superior model and it's easily proven. 

Of course all weather across the NH is connected, but I'm not buying that the error in modeling is equally distributed across the entire Northern Hemisphere.  We can deduce that from the simple tendencies that we know are true within modeling, Ex.(Euro holding energy back across the South West).

 

 

 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, griteater said:

I think the thing to do would be to maintain a database of cases where the models differ during SE winter storm scenarios and tally the numbers to see which model is best

That's the only way to ever know for sure.  The Euro still wins it's fair share, but it does seem to cave to the GFS more than it used to with respect to SE winter events.

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burrel2

burrel2

Posted
Posted

Another possible outcome we aren't considering...

Maybe the Euro is better at predicting 500mb contour lines for ridges and mature arctic cyclones that spin over the North Pole, but maybe it struggles with positively tilted shortwaves across mid-latitudes? 

Again, I'm not saying whether any of this is true, just raising the point that we don't really know and hence, we can't conclude beyond a doubt that the Euro is a better model for our area.

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