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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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Warm Xmas will feel good.  This should be approaching 70F if this is correct.  

 

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For Christmas Day specifically for RDU it's 53 for the mean high on the EPS. Approaching 70 in...Florida. That ridge isn't too deadly, 2m will be colder than it appears at 500mb. Don't freak out guys when the Euro is bad at Day 10! 52% verification score for 500mb in the Northern Hemisphere!
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2 minutes ago, Jon said:


For Christmas Day specifically for RDU it's 53 for the mean high on the EPS. Approaching 70 in...Florida. That ridge isn't too deadly, 2m will be colder than it appears at 500mb. Don't freak out guys when the Euro is bad at Day 10! 52% verification score for 500mb in the Northern Hemisphere!

I'm not sure why people keep getting worked up with the mid to long range modeling because we see big changes from run to run. 

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16 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

It's hard to say how warm it will be. We'll still have fronts coming through but it would be a setup that would warm right after each frontal passage. The current GFS actually has highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s; but that's out in fantasy range (it could easily still be the 70).

Yeah, I just hope we're in the ballpark of normal around Christmas.  Models are going to flip and flop in the LR, but they've been fairly consistent in showing a subpar Atlantic and a subpar Pacific.  Until that starts to consistently change for the better, I'm not expect very much excitement in these parts. 

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From Jb this morning on next weekend!

The severe cold shot that is portrayed on the models is of the genre of 1968,1980 and 1983 Christmas outbreaks, but a week earlier. These major outbreaks drove temps below 0 into the southern New England cities, The 80 and 83 one even into NYC, but ALL THREE HAD IT RAINING IN THE COASTAL NORTHEAST WITHIN 72 HOURS! Plainly this is the message behind the GFS and Euro.. The UKMET and Canadian are further south. The parallel is in the middle

Where He stands is in the middle. He is suspect of how much cold can hold after the major shot because it fits the 3 He was talking about, it rained after. Its the less cold UKMET on that shot that is plainly in the camp of snow after it though as that trough can not get the warm air north in that pattern that you can with , lets say the Euro Its tricky though because the model may overestimate the warm advection in the plains and when doing so, over deep then system

Its a heck of a pattern.. and at the very least, its not last year when nothing was going on

of course further north and west, if you wanted snow and cold before Christmas, you are getting your wish.. This is to his I 95'ers in the NE..... But He did say last night before the 00z runs, Ice all the way down to Va. very possible........... So if the I 95 crowd is having to worry about the cold holding, That can't bode well for us in the SE. I would think? This is just his opinion!!!

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12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

One thing for sure is many will stop dismissing the GFS in favor of the Euro.  It really has been rock solid with other models moving toward it.  

Yeah, like last week when it was showing 60 and 70 degree below normal temps and I'd had ensemble support!!? Solid as a rock!

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8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, like last week when it was showing 60 and 70 degree below normal temps and I'd had ensemble support!!? Solid as a rock!

Mack, We gonna have a December not to Remember. Just like normal.....  Cold dry, warm up rain!! Rinse repeat etc............ The beauty of a snow lover living in the SE. :violin:

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11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Boone is where I would like to move.  They probably get snow after every frontal passage.

Boone only has roughly half an inch of snow so far. So, ever we in the mountains aren't doing too much better. In other news, I said in banter yesterday about the SER getting stronger, I didn't mean for that to actually happen. When it gets going, it's tough for our entire region to get cold air. 

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One thing for sure is many will stop dismissing the GFS in favor of the Euro.  It really has been rock solid with other models moving toward it.  


I don't understand this concept. The GFS is an inferior model, there's no questioning that. Mesoscale modeling and IMBY type weather, maybe? Maybe it's the luck of the draw or the bias in the observer? Not the truth with big picture patterns and verification scores. Euro has been ruling the roost for a very, very long time. 34bd1166b88330a153bd8d83a1569898.png
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Indices today:

AO - Goes very positive before heading towards neutral in the LR

NAO - Averages slightly negative before averaging maybe neutral in the LR

PNA - Looks to go slight positive before falling back slightly negative in the LR

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

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The Euro may do better with the general long range pattern than the GFS according to verification scores, but we've seen more instances of the Euro cave to the GFS with area-specific storms (which we all really care most about) in the medium range than we used to.  I don't think there's much question about that.

I don't know how you score that out, but it is happening more.

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On 12/9/2016 at 0:14 PM, Bob Chill said:

The GFS has been consistently overestimating the depth of cold and strength of HP at med to long leads for weeks. While anything is possible, suppression would be low on the list of things to be concerned with. 

Do an excercise over the next 8 gfs runs with that cold dome. I'd be willing to bet with less than equal odds that it will come in weaker over time. 

Unfortunately this is a valid point. I've watched meteostar moderate the cold with each run a little a time.  

 

When the major players aren't in the right spots hoping for a storm usually leads to heartbreak.  This little threat we just saw was a prime example.  So much missing and the all hoping in the world doesn't change us missing the west coast ridge and a little something in the Atlantic to lock in the cold in the east.  

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