Jon Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Warm Xmas will feel good. This should be approaching 70F if this is correct. For Christmas Day specifically for RDU it's 53 for the mean high on the EPS. Approaching 70 in...Florida. That ridge isn't too deadly, 2m will be colder than it appears at 500mb. Don't freak out guys when the Euro is bad at Day 10! 52% verification score for 500mb in the Northern Hemisphere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 The Euro just hasn't been the same since the downgrade a couple years back.Correct Sir, it has been horrible at times!that's the reason I said I wasn't biting until GFS got on board. It's certainly not like it used to be. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jon said: For Christmas Day specifically for RDU it's 53 for the mean high on the EPS. Approaching 70 in...Florida. That ridge isn't too deadly, 2m will be colder than it appears at 500mb. Don't freak out guys when the Euro is bad at Day 10! 52% verification score for 500mb in the Northern Hemisphere! I'm not sure why people keep getting worked up with the mid to long range modeling because we see big changes from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 16 minutes ago, FallsLake said: It's hard to say how warm it will be. We'll still have fronts coming through but it would be a setup that would warm right after each frontal passage. The current GFS actually has highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s; but that's out in fantasy range (it could easily still be the 70). Yeah, I just hope we're in the ballpark of normal around Christmas. Models are going to flip and flop in the LR, but they've been fairly consistent in showing a subpar Atlantic and a subpar Pacific. Until that starts to consistently change for the better, I'm not expect very much excitement in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Sucks that we seem to be seeing this little threat slip away, but on a positive note, the rain every few days, is AWESOME! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 From Jb this morning on next weekend! The severe cold shot that is portrayed on the models is of the genre of 1968,1980 and 1983 Christmas outbreaks, but a week earlier. These major outbreaks drove temps below 0 into the southern New England cities, The 80 and 83 one even into NYC, but ALL THREE HAD IT RAINING IN THE COASTAL NORTHEAST WITHIN 72 HOURS! Plainly this is the message behind the GFS and Euro.. The UKMET and Canadian are further south. The parallel is in the middle Where He stands is in the middle. He is suspect of how much cold can hold after the major shot because it fits the 3 He was talking about, it rained after. Its the less cold UKMET on that shot that is plainly in the camp of snow after it though as that trough can not get the warm air north in that pattern that you can with , lets say the Euro Its tricky though because the model may overestimate the warm advection in the plains and when doing so, over deep then system Its a heck of a pattern.. and at the very least, its not last year when nothing was going on of course further north and west, if you wanted snow and cold before Christmas, you are getting your wish.. This is to his I 95'ers in the NE..... But He did say last night before the 00z runs, Ice all the way down to Va. very possible........... So if the I 95 crowd is having to worry about the cold holding, That can't bode well for us in the SE. I would think? This is just his opinion!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 One thing for sure is many will stop dismissing the GFS in favor of the Euro. It really has been rock solid with other models moving toward it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 12 minutes ago, BristowWx said: One thing for sure is many will stop dismissing the GFS in favor of the Euro. It really has been rock solid with other models moving toward it. Yeah, like last week when it was showing 60 and 70 degree below normal temps and I'd had ensemble support!!? Solid as a rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Point taken. They all have their issues. I'm just angry since I was really looking forward to some sustained winter weather around Xmas. I'm sure I am not alone. My fear is the SE ridge sets up shop all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, like last week when it was showing 60 and 70 degree below normal temps and I'd had ensemble support!!? Solid as a rock! Mack, We gonna have a December not to Remember. Just like normal..... Cold dry, warm up rain!! Rinse repeat etc............ The beauty of a snow lover living in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: Mack, We gonna have a December not to Remember. Just like normal..... Cold dry, warm up rain!! Rinse repeat etc............ The beauty of a snow lover living in the SE. Maybe we need to move to Wilkesboro !!!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: I'm not sure why people keep getting worked up with the mid to long range modeling because we see big changes from run to run. I don't either, I can't see how there's any confidence in any global model past a 3 day lead at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Boone is where I would like to move. They probably get snow after every frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Everybody will be excite again in a bit, when CMC shows mega ice storm again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Maybe we need to move to Wilkesboro !!!?? lol------It's NO good either!!! I live pretty close to Wilkesboro............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Everybody will be excite again in a bit, when CMC shows mega ice storm again! I'm betting it starts it's slow backing away! every run will be a little less Ice shown.... from last nights run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Everybody will be excite again in a bit, when CMC shows mega ice storm again! No way we have all learned our lesson. We will not live and die by every model run...no way. Is it out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 11 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Boone is where I would like to move. They probably get snow after every frontal passage. Boone only has roughly half an inch of snow so far. So, ever we in the mountains aren't doing too much better. In other news, I said in banter yesterday about the SER getting stronger, I didn't mean for that to actually happen. When it gets going, it's tough for our entire region to get cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 One thing for sure is many will stop dismissing the GFS in favor of the Euro. It really has been rock solid with other models moving toward it. I don't understand this concept. The GFS is an inferior model, there's no questioning that. Mesoscale modeling and IMBY type weather, maybe? Maybe it's the luck of the draw or the bias in the observer? Not the truth with big picture patterns and verification scores. Euro has been ruling the roost for a very, very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Everybody will be excite again in a bit, when CMC shows mega ice storm again! Where is the SER in the CMC? The 12z should begin to back off the major ice storm. If not I'm lost as to why the EURO is backing off but not the CMC. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Indices today: AO - Goes very positive before heading towards neutral in the LR NAO - Averages slightly negative before averaging maybe neutral in the LR PNA - Looks to go slight positive before falling back slightly negative in the LR http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 The Euro may do better with the general long range pattern than the GFS according to verification scores, but we've seen more instances of the Euro cave to the GFS with area-specific storms (which we all really care most about) in the medium range than we used to. I don't think there's much question about that. I don't know how you score that out, but it is happening more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 0:14 PM, Bob Chill said: The GFS has been consistently overestimating the depth of cold and strength of HP at med to long leads for weeks. While anything is possible, suppression would be low on the list of things to be concerned with. Do an excercise over the next 8 gfs runs with that cold dome. I'd be willing to bet with less than equal odds that it will come in weaker over time. Unfortunately this is a valid point. I've watched meteostar moderate the cold with each run a little a time. When the major players aren't in the right spots hoping for a storm usually leads to heartbreak. This little threat we just saw was a prime example. So much missing and the all hoping in the world doesn't change us missing the west coast ridge and a little something in the Atlantic to lock in the cold in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 CR that is purely anecdotal. The verification scores show all lead times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 This low is supposed to bring ice....GFS is bad but not this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 CMC just caved to GFS. Haven't really watched this threat but looking back at posts it looks like CMC was showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 40 minutes ago, packbacker said: CMC just caved to GFS. Haven't really watched this threat but looking back at posts it looks like CMC was showing it. Euro had a nice storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Back on pattern watch again. Odds of an early start to winter are once again diminishing, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Looks like the Canadian is still holding on to its idea pretty well...not sure I'd call this a total cave...at least not yet. EDIT: Ok yeah much smaller area and main LP much further north than 0z. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 I know 144 hrs out is well outside of the UKMET's wheelhouse, but it's not even close to anything the GFS (OP and Para) and the Canadian is showing. EDIT: Reposted the link for the UKMET again 12z Sat UK GFS (OP) 12z Sat CMC 12z Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.