mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, cg2916 said: CMC trying to kill everyone. That's 200 miles of crippling ice. We are due! I need the one tree left standing in my backyard gone! Bring on 1 1/2 inch of accretion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Just now, mackerel_sky said: We are due! I need the one tree left standing in my backyard gone! Bring on 1 1/2 inch of accretion! We are long overdue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Did 00z GFS show any wintry precip in the SE next weekend? It hasn't in the last 2-3 days! We are tossing it, til it shows one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: It hasn't in the last 2-3 days! We are tossing it, til it shows one! lol, sounds good to me!!! NO SNOW Joe Bastardi 1 hr · Canadian 10 day snow amounts https://t.co/MUcHZ8mUMt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 We are always 10 days out aren't we ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Larry Cosgrove tonight.... Many of the model series now show what amounts to be a "cold West vs. mild East" alignment in the longer term. While there is a vast and apparently strong subtropical high in command of the Old South and Eastern Seaboard in the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day periods, I call attention to what appears to be a building -AO/-NAO type ridge signal across Baffin Island and Greenland. That ridging matches well with the analog platforms, and if it is real will create profound distortion of the jet stream at some point around January 1 - 3. In other words, colder revisions from the Great Plains to the East Coast. Although I suspect that ultimately for next month the trough axis will be right through the heart of the continent, there could be some risk of an ice or snow event early in the new year in the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions.Until that time, the holiday week between Christmas and New Year may be great for skiers in the West, winter clothing manufacturers in Canada, and vacationers in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 14 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: We are always 10 days out aren't we ? This potential threat is 6-7 days from now, not 10..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 3 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I was talking about the freezing rain map that says valid Dec 21. I believe that's just a map valid through the end of the run but all that zr falls between hours 144-168. Interesting how the CMC is colder, UK slightly better and GFS is worse lol. If Euro holds or trends colder like the CMC then I would expect the GFS to come around within the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 The odd thing to me is the GFS is showing the exact same temperature profile as the CMC but the storm is way further north and west. That doesn't make any sense, at least I don't recall seeing a serious CAD set up with a low pressure so far away. Not to mention there has to be some evaporative cooling to make these temps verify I would think, and obviously you need precipitation for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 How did the king come in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Wow. EURO caves to the GFS. Sends the low through Iowa and into the lakes, high pressure long gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 welp, shows over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Still a light ice hit in the highly favored CAD areas. But the wedge is much smaller banked against the apps and gets scoured out much more quickly than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 You guys live and die with each model run. This thing is still a week away, so I wouldn't toss in the towel -- It's still worth monitoring. Not sure if everyone was expecting some knockout event or something, because it was never expected to be. The ECMWF is still showing some freezing rain through much of the CAD favored areas of western NC all the way into NE GA. Some spots picking up 0.25" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 5 minutes ago, Disc said: You guys live and die with each model run. This thing is still a week away, so I wouldn't toss in the towel -- It's still worth monitoring. Not sure if everyone was expecting some knockout event or something, because it was never expected to be. The ECMWF is still showing some freezing rain through much of the CAD favored areas of western NC all the way into NE GA. Some spots picking up 0.25" of ice. It was never a blockbuster, but this was a cave towards the GFS no matter how you slice it. The affected area shown on the last two runs of the EURO has been cut 50-75%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Just now, Jonathan said: It was never a blockbuster, but this was a cave towards the GFS no matter how you slice it. The affected area shown on the last two runs of the EURO has been cut 50-75%. Which is probably good anyway, unless you like crippling ice storms. Some of the totals being spit out would be devastating if they were to end up occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
accu35 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Welp on to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 hour ago, accu35 said: Welp on to the next one. Which won't even think about happening around here till January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Not good runs of the models last night but the 6z GFS still does show a window of ice for many CAD areas (below map at hour 150). We have to also remember this is where the models sometimes loses a storm (to an extent) just to trend back towards it the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 9 hours ago, griteater said: Been thinking we would go into a period of EPO ridging with cold supplanted down into the U.S., but model runs not showing that at the moment. Question is.....is this period of BN the anomaly and warmth again prevails. Makes sense to see a break...hope LC is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 any major changes in the EPS, packbacker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Didn't expect any model to lock on a solution this far out for next weekend. They will all probably go back and forth for a few more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 18 minutes ago, packfan98 said: any major changes in the EPS, packbacker? Warm Xmas will feel good. This should be approaching 70F if this is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 5 hours ago, Jonathan said: Wow. EURO caves to the GFS. Sends the low through Iowa and into the lakes, high pressure long gone. No surprise here, this has been happening for the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: Warm Xmas will feel good. This should be approaching 70F if this is correct. That sucks more than any of the rest of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: No surprise here, this has been happening for the past few years. GFS has been seeing some wins over the other models the last few years. I think as others have stated when a winter storm threatens we now want all models to agree before accepting a solution. Now what happens if todays 12 GFS shows a bigger threat, and then the euro shows the (bigger) threat again at 0z. If the storm happens as depicted is it a win for the GFS or the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 The Euro just hasn't been the same since the downgrade a couple years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: That sucks more than any of the rest of it. It's hard to say how warm it will be. We'll still have fronts coming through but it would be a setup that would warm right after each frontal passage. The current GFS actually has highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s; but that's out in fantasy range (it could easily still be the 70). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 The eps caved to the gefs in the long range too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 12 minutes ago, FallsLake said: GFS has been seeing some wins over the other models the last few years. I think as others have stated when a winter storm threatens we now want all models to agree before accepting a solution. Now what happens if todays 12 GFS shows a bigger threat, and then the euro shows the (bigger) threat again at 0z. If the storm happens as depicted is it a win for the GFS or the euro? I think it just means they are all inconsistent when it comes to winter storm threats around here. I just think it's so hard for them to figure anything out past three days, and sometimes even 12 hours. It just seems more complicated to figure out what is going to happen here with regards to winter storm threats. The most they can show is if there is a chance or not, and then we just have to wait and see what actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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