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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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Larry Cosgrove tonight....

 

Many of the model series now show what amounts to be a "cold West vs. mild East" alignment in the longer term. While there is a vast and apparently strong subtropical high in command of the Old South and Eastern Seaboard in the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day periods, I call attention to what appears to be a building -AO/-NAO type ridge signal across Baffin Island and Greenland. That ridging matches well with the analog platforms, and if it is real will create profound distortion of the jet stream at some point around January 1 - 3. In other words, colder revisions from the Great Plains to the East Coast. Although I suspect that ultimately for next month the trough axis will be right through the heart of the continent, there could be some risk of an ice or snow event early in the new year in the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions.

Until that time, the holiday week between Christmas and New Year may be great for skiers in the West, winter clothing manufacturers in Canada, and vacationers in Florida.

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3 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I was talking about the freezing rain map that says valid Dec 21.

I believe that's just a map valid through the end of the run but all that zr falls between hours 144-168. 

Interesting how the CMC is colder, UK slightly better and GFS is worse lol. If Euro holds or trends colder like the CMC then I would expect the GFS to come around within the next 24 hours. 

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The odd thing to me is the GFS is showing the exact same temperature profile as the CMC but the storm is way further north and west.  That doesn't make any sense, at least I don't recall seeing a serious CAD set up with a low pressure so far away.  Not to mention there has to be some evaporative cooling to make these temps verify I would think, and obviously you need precipitation for that to happen.

 

gfs_T2m_seus_26.png

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You guys live and die with each model run. This thing is still a week away, so I wouldn't toss in the towel -- It's still worth monitoring. Not sure if everyone was expecting some knockout event or something, because it was never expected to be. The ECMWF is still showing some freezing rain through much of the CAD favored areas of western NC all the way into NE GA. Some spots picking up 0.25" of ice.

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5 minutes ago, Disc said:

You guys live and die with each model run. This thing is still a week away, so I wouldn't toss in the towel -- It's still worth monitoring. Not sure if everyone was expecting some knockout event or something, because it was never expected to be. The ECMWF is still showing some freezing rain through much of the CAD favored areas of western NC all the way into NE GA. Some spots picking up 0.25" of ice.

It was never a blockbuster, but this was a cave towards the GFS no matter how you slice it. The affected area shown on the last two runs of the EURO has been cut 50-75%.

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Just now, Jonathan said:

It was never a blockbuster, but this was a cave towards the GFS no matter how you slice it. The affected area shown on the last two runs of the EURO has been cut 50-75%.

Which is probably good anyway, unless you like crippling ice storms. Some of the totals being spit out would be devastating if they were to end up occurring.

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9 hours ago, griteater said:

 

Been thinking we would go into a period of EPO ridging with cold supplanted down into the U.S., but model runs not showing that at the moment.

Question is.....is this period of BN the anomaly and warmth again prevails.  Makes sense to see a break...hope LC is correct.  

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2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

No surprise here, this has been happening for the past few years.

GFS has been seeing some wins over the other models the last few years. I think as others have stated when a winter storm threatens we now want all models to agree before accepting a solution.

Now what happens if todays 12 GFS shows a bigger threat, and then the euro shows the (bigger) threat again at 0z. If the storm happens as depicted is it a win for the GFS or the euro?  

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11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

That sucks more than any of the rest of it.

It's hard to say how warm it will be. We'll still have fronts coming through but it would be a setup that would warm right after each frontal passage. The current GFS actually has highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s; but that's out in fantasy range (it could easily still be the 70).

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12 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

GFS has been seeing some wins over the other models the last few years. I think as others have stated when a winter storm threatens we now want all models to agree before accepting a solution.

Now what happens if todays 12 GFS shows a bigger threat, and then the euro shows the (bigger) threat again at 0z. If the storm happens as depicted is it a win for the GFS or the euro?  

I think it just means they are all inconsistent when it comes to winter storm threats around here. I just think it's so hard for them to figure anything out past three days, and sometimes even 12 hours. It just seems more complicated to figure out what is going to happen here with regards to winter storm threats. The most they can show is if there is a chance or not, and then we just have to wait and see what actually happens.

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