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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

00z GFS another warm cutter. Canadian another significant ice storm down into NE GA

 

4 minutes ago, griteater said:

00z GFS another warm cutter. Canadian another significant ice storm down into NE GA

Thanks Grit for always chiming in 0z and 12z. Hopefully the Can and Euro can stand their ground. We'll be  crossing the 5 day out mark tommorow and from that point on in its the euro and EPS wheelhouse. 

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8 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Thanks Grit for always chiming in 0z and 12z. Hopefully the Can and Euro can stand their ground. We'll be  crossing the 5 day out mark tommorow and from that point on in its the euro and EPS wheelhouse. 

You got it man.  GFS has a cold high drop down after the warm cutter, then has another system that cuts west of the Apps....light ice to rain hr 252-264

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Getting an early start on that Surry county eggnog I see.


Lol. Pull back for everybody after next weeks cold shot for Christmas week. but especially the southeast overall most of the country stays cold after Christmas week but the Southeast it looks toasty!! Another drink please


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1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said:


Lol. Pull back for everybody after next weeks cold shot for Christmas week. but especially the southeast overall most of the country stays cold after Christmas week but the Southeast it looks toasty!! Another drink please emoji1335.png


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Hopefully we can get some white on the ground before Christmas. I'd settle for sleet. See if gfs ens try to trend more toward foreign guidance.

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UKMet is a bit more wintry looking this run.  It's more similar to the Canadian except that the NE high isn't as strong and it's off the coast here at 144....wedge signature in place though and overrunning likely beginning to breakout at this point into the cold wedge.  UKMet is fairly suppressed with the southern low in TX.

2emndhz.gif

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12 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Hopefully we can get some white on the ground before Christmas. I'd settle for sleet. See if gfs ens try to trend more toward foreign guidance.

 He said if he could change his dec. forecast he would move the AN line up to NC  not just Florida.

Eastern Fight Reminiscent of 2013 · 

 

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6 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Here's is what it looks like, He said if he could change his dec. forecast he would move the AN line up to NC  not just Florida.

 

 

For whole month of Dec? wow, I haven't checked but we should be runing at or slightly bn if not by now, definetly by end of this next week. Time will tell. My hopes are for getting on the board next weekend. Right now we're at 0.0 in the frozen precip.Thanks for sharing, always interested in jbs opinions.

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It's all going to come down to where the LP goes. All models have a CAD signature and a HP in New England. Only difference is that the GFS wants the send the LP to Iowa and then to the Great Lakes whereas the CMC, UK (it appears), and the Euro want to send it through the Tenn Valley thus slinging precip into the area before the CAD retreats. All in all the CAD will be in place, the question mark will be the tracjectory of the LP. 

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3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Notice the ukmet has a 950 lp up in eastern Canada on grits pics but canadian doesnt. must be why hp holds on stronger on the canadian. but you'd figure the opposite would happen.

Trough axis on UKMet is centered off Newfoundland, while on Canadian there's a trough there east of Maine...subtle difference, but that's aiding in the confluent flow there and holding in the sfc high longer, and stronger

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