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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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850s are cooler on the front end thump on 12z EURO, therefore having more of a classic snow to ice to rain scenario for VA/northern NC border counties as the wedge erodes.

Plus, how many times have we seen the wedge trend stronger the closer we get to go time? And even then, that shallow layer of cold air has a hard time getting scoured out.

I'll take the EURO/Canadian combo any day over the GFS.

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For those wondering about the Euro it keeps a strong CAD in place similar to what the 12z CMC shows. Areas like Raleigh see .3 to .4 as freezing rain and sleet. Maybe a brief start as light snow. The air was much colder at the surface, better HP position for CAD with a 1037HP over NY. Verbatim I would expect a colder trend. 

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7 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

For those wondering about the Euro it keeps a strong CAD in place similar to what the 12z CMC shows. Areas like Raleigh see .3 to .4 as freezing rain and sleet. Maybe a brief start as light snow. The air was much colder at the surface, better HP position for CAD with a 1037HP over NY. Verbatim I would expect a colder trend. 

Good to see you back, man! 

Really digging the trends on the last three EURO runs. I'm with you, this has the potential to trend cooler as we get closer.

EURO getting into its wheelhouse now. Getting within that 5-7 day range. Canadian on board just boosts confidence even more.

Trying to temper excitement as it all gets washed away by rain eventually, but hey, we have a potential winter system in December for the first time in a long time! 

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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

still can't count out the GFS solution with the GEFS similar.  I agree Euro CMC chili is tasty but GFS has crapped in the pot before and made it taste real bad

True. But if held a gun to my head and forced me to pick sides, I'd pick the international combination over the U.S. models every day.

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9 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

still can't count out the GFS solution with the GEFS similar.  I agree Euro CMC chili is tasty but GFS has crapped in the pot before and made it taste real bad

When the CMC and Euro get locked in, it's hard not to bet the house on that combo.  GFS over the Euro and CMC combo is a lot like the odds of the Browns winning the super bowl.

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39 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

For those wondering about the Euro it keeps a strong CAD in place similar to what the 12z CMC shows. Areas like Raleigh see .3 to .4 as freezing rain and sleet. Maybe a brief start as light snow. The air was much colder at the surface, better HP position for CAD with a 1037HP over NY. Verbatim I would expect a colder trend. 

Saw on the other board the soundings for rdu from a very knowledgeable poster off the euro next sat p.m where 30/6 with 850s at -4. That's pure in the bag snow sounding no doubt. would think dp depression up through the column would be stout to fight off any shallow warm nose assuming there is one.

 

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1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

Saw on the other board the soundings for rdu from a very knowledgeable poster off the euro next sat p.m where 30/6 with 850s at -4. That's pure in the bag snow sounding no doubt. would think dp depression up through the column would be stout to fight off any shallow warm nose assuming there is one.

 

What other board?

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55 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

When the CMC and Euro get locked in, it's hard not to bet the house on that combo.  GFS over the Euro and CMC combo is a lot like the odds of the Browns winning the super bowl.

I'd be encouraged if 18z came around a bit.  GFS doesn't always get it wrong.  Tomorrow is a good example of that.  CMC gives us here 1-3 but that's not happening.  I want to root for the winter scenario but can't go all in until the GFS caves a bit.

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3 hours ago, griteater said:

The setup on the Canadian

dg3slv.gif

Bring the 1042 HP about 300 miles to the South or Southeast and track that 1002 low across NoFL and we got something.

I'm Actually surprised the low looks to be cutting with that stout of an HP. I would think the HP would push it a bit further south, unless it is cutting too far West and just become a GL cutter. I would also think we don't want the LP any stronger, maybe even a little weaker at 1005 or so. 

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Overall setup wise, the Euro looked in between the GFS and Canadian to me.  It looks like the prime difference lies in how quick the western wave is kicked out...and it looks like the polar wave dropping down through western Canada influences the kick out timing.  Canadian was the fastest, GFS the slowest...Euro in between.  Slower kick out means the cold air has time to retreat off the NE coast.  Sfc high pressure strength over New England is pretty impressive on the Euro and Canadian.

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Greenville discussion

This cold ridge of high pressure will slide east through the remainder of the week, setting up as classical or hybrid CAD event (Depending on which model source is favored).  Nevertheless, both the ECMWF/GFS favor some degree of a developing Miller B pattern as a Plains low ejects northeast into the OH valley, spreading moisture northward atop the entrenched CAD Friday night, while an Atl coastal low develops by Saturday afternoon/evening.  Profiles during this Miller B setup will initially favor wintry precip Friday evening/night into Saturday morning before warm advection yields a ptype phase change to all liquid by midday Saturday.  It should be noted that confidence in ptypes is rather low at this range therefore only a rain/snow mix was featured in the fcst, however profiles do suggest that fzra/ip could also be in the mix.

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2 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

Saw on the other board the soundings for rdu from a very knowledgeable poster off the euro next sat p.m where 30/6 with 850s at -4. That's pure in the bag snow sounding no doubt. would think dp depression up through the column would be stout to fight off any shallow warm nose assuming there is one.

 

The problem is the arrival of the moisture. On the GFS the energy stalls too long in the West which brings the precip in too late to take advantage and lock in CAD. The CMC and Euro are quicker with our energy and bring in precip much further south which locks in our CAD. The GFS has been pretty inconsistent so I wouldn't put too much stock in it. If Euro and CMC hold serve through 12z tomorrow then we can start getting excited about potential winter weather. Also of note, CAD will likely be much stronger than models indicate at this range with a 1035+ HP centered over the NE. 

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2 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Good thing we have this day 7 threat to watch....makes us not look at the pattern after that. Good thing we have time to turn that around...we are going to need it.  

Yeah to much flow need blocking.....otherwise chances are slim that we can keep the cold long enough to put a real GOM low into it, otherwise we are looking at pinning all our hopes on over running and most likely short lived ice events......of which I am not a fan. 

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3 hours ago, packbacker said:

Good thing we have this day 7 threat to watch....makes us not look at the pattern after that. Good thing we have time to turn that around...we are going to need it.  

 

3 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah to much flow need blocking.....otherwise chances are slim that we can keep the cold long enough to put a real GOM low into it, otherwise we are looking at pinning all our hopes on over running and most likely short lived ice events......of which I am not a fan. 

Been thinking we would go into a period of EPO ridging with cold supplanted down into the U.S., but model runs not showing that at the moment.

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