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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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Even with overnight models backing off some, RAH is keeping an eye on next weekend:

Latest model runs indicate strong CAD setting up
for Friday Night into Saturday. The problem comes Friday night as
moisture advecting into the region in southwest flow aloft may
result in some p-type issues. For now will keep precipitation
chances just below slight until there is a bit more model
consistency and agreement, however wintry precipitation is not out
of the question at the end of the period
. Temperatures through the
extended will be below normal with highs in the low to mid 40s
Thursday and Friday, potentially dropping into the mid 30s to low
40s for Saturday. Lows will generally be in the mid 20s to low 30s.
 

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The GFS and it's ensembles are having major issues with the trying to eject the trough under the deeply negative EPO and the Euro disagrees with this.

GEFS Day 10

13Mjbm6.png

EURO Ensemble Day 10 is a far more favorable setup...aleutians low with a proper -EPO/quasi-+PNA (I'm making this up, it's early on a Saturday morning)...but negative anomalies far south under the Hudson bay

zn5irDy.png

The GFS OP basically has a negatively tilted -EPO pretty much giving us no choice but to have a massive ridge with the negative tilt coupling over the US, this isn't going to happen.

LQytlnm.png

Not sure I buy the GFS solution, as you can see no other model (but the GFS) has this in the 168-240 means

Q6fVN6Q.png

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25 minutes ago, griteater said:

GFS is a warm cutter, but Canadian has a wintry setup for western CAD areas with cold high pressure over northern New England, switches to rain, then steady cold after the storm

Well that GFS run was horrible! Instead of SE ridge, the whole country almost looks warm, I say we toss and wait on the para!?

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7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I thought the para looked less than good at 6z.  But that SE ridge scares me right now.  

That, along with nothing to lock in cold high pressure, plus the bias of models over-representing cold in the medium to long range, stack the odds pretty well against a major SE winter storm. Some minor snow/ice to rain in northern/western zones is not out of the question, but this doesn't feel like one of those situations where we're going to trend toward a big winter storm.

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8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

That, along with nothing to lock in cold high pressure, plus the bias of models over-representing cold in the medium to long range, stack the odds pretty well against a major SE winter storm. Some minor snow/ice to rain in northern/western zones is not out of the question, but this doesn't feel like one of those situations where we're going to trend toward a big winter storm.

Man Shetley, where's all the negativity coming from?? This anomalous cold is throwing things off!! The storms can be supressed tomorrow! Let's see where we are Wednesday!

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Man Shetley, where's all the negativity coming from?? This anomalous cold is throwing things off!! The storms can be supressed tomorrow! Let's see where we are Wednesday!

I love snow and ice!  But unfortunately, my desire for a winter storm can't overwhelm the LR model cold bias or the seasonal trend of cutters. :(

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It appears like the gfs wants to pump that SE ridge in the long range, while none of the other modeling has it.  Is this a known bias?  It might be a recurring theme for the winter with the american models. Seems to match those extra long range models that have proven to be wrong with the December predictions thus far.

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