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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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More and more it looks like the Bering Sea ridging (-WPO) is progressing east into Alaska ridging (-EPO).  So, I could see that keeping us in the game over the next few weeks with cold highs in place to our north and northwest, with snow cover up there as well.  Overrunning threats with precip moving into low-level, shallow cold air...with some warmer cutters thrown in there too.

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12 minutes ago, SimeonNC said:

So should we start taking the threat next weekend seriously now that three models are on board?

Take it seriously? Sure. However, we shouldn't expect any model to verify verbatim.  The pattern is conducive for someone to score.  At this long lead time, we should be playing close attention to the trends, and the ensembles.  Right now, there is little to no run-to-run consistency. There's even some dramatic changes with the ensemble runs.  I'm just watching and waiting.

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8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I'll start taking it seriously if it is still there on Tuesday/Wednesday.    The local mets aren't even going to mention it until then, at the earliest.

 

We all know how fickle the models are and NC winter weather.g

As often as the models change, they would be foolish to mention it this early.

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

More and more it looks like the Bering Sea ridging (-WPO) is progressing east into Alaska ridging (-EPO).  So, I could see that keeping us in the game over the next few weeks with cold highs in place to our north and northwest, with snow cover up there as well.  Overrunning threats with precip moving into low-level, shallow cold air...with some warmer cutters thrown in there too.

x7gih.gif

11gj5z9.gif

 

The EPO is a game changer.

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9 minutes ago, griteater said:

At 180, Euro Ensemble Mean has a 1032+ high near the NY/Canadian border.  That's a strong high for an ensemble mean at hr180.  Has damming signature and good storm/precip signal moving into the shallow cold air

24 at CLT in the frame that drops the most precip on that OP with low 20s N&W....:o

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Just a few thoughts on that OP Euro run...

 

It looks like it drives the ZR line down south of Columbia. It's pretty rare that Columbia sees freezing rain simultaneously with Charlotte. I do wonder if over time, it trends warmer for SC or if we end up with a more sleety solution. That of course is taking a Day 7+ model at its word. 

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2 hours ago, griteater said:

More and more it looks like the Bering Sea ridging (-WPO) is progressing east into Alaska ridging (-EPO).  So, I could see that keeping us in the game over the next few weeks with cold highs in place to our north and northwest, with snow cover up there as well.  Overrunning threats with precip moving into low-level, shallow cold air...with some warmer cutters thrown in there too.

 

 

 

Thanks for the play by play Grit. No matter how the mood of the Board swings day by day, if you're posting and running PBP I know things are not that bad.  

From a completely non-scientific point of view, this is December 9 and things seem to be going great! Meteorological winter just started and we're having semi-serious fantasy storms pop up here and there in the medium range, with Arctic highs pushing in from time to time.  Don't know what else we could serious ask for in the SE at this point. 

This could all go to crud next month, but I have to think what we've seeing now can't be a bad thing in regard to the rest of winter. 

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5 minutes ago, KENW0728 said:

New to the region--Acworth GA from SE Wisconsin. Winter weather isn't quite the same any longer--Im ok with that! Will try my best to sit back and learn what I can.

When I was a southern spy up north, spent a lot of time in Fontana and around Lake Geneva - where I'd park my car on the lake in the winter - not something us folks down here have ever experienced

Welcome aboard!

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Models having a hard time even past 96 hours. Just look at the 500mb and 850mb maps of the NAM, CMC, and GFS at hour 84 even. Then compare GFS with previous run from hours 120-198, big differences. CMC much different from GFS. In short the main takeaway is we have cold nearby next week and moisture too, question is do they arrive at the right time or not? In my experience these cold domes tend to give models fit at extended ranges and they will begin resolving things inside 96 hours. I wouldn't take any one solution by any model seriously outside that timeframe. 

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